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How to invest HK$30,000/month?

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  1. #21

    liquidity ie money supply ie debt is issued at the rate at which somebody (investors) will snap it up. What happens when the music stops and people no longer want to hold onto that debt? Which is what I think will be happening in the coming months. Foreign governments will very soon wake up to the fact that the US is a paper tiger and can no longer fufil its debt obligations, and then start dumping dollars.


  2. #22

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    we speculated on that possibility like 2 years ago in the treasury trading room. unfortunately it did not materialized despite all the compass pointing right at it... i'm not sure when it will happen


  3. #23

    I was going to buy a Chinese Index fund. And I was going to ask you people if an index fund is really more risky than another fund (I am attracted to it because it has lower administration costs, 1% instead of 5% or so, and the same performance). And now this apocaliptic scenario. So my questions now are:

    1. Is it more risky to buy an index fund than another fund, as someone said in another thread?

    2. If the US$ collapses, apart of gold and silver, what currencies will gain most?

    3. What will happen to the Chinese economy? Does it have enough steam to continue running, or will it collapse too?

    Thanks to all!


  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by RastaMan:
    I was going to buy a Chinese Index fund. And I was going to ask you people if an index fund is really more risky than another fund (I am attracted to it because it has lower administration costs, 1% instead of 5% or so, and the same performance). And now this apocaliptic scenario. So my questions now are:

    1. Is it more risky to buy an index fund than another fund, as someone said in another thread?

    2. If the US$ collapses, apart of gold and silver, what currencies will gain most?

    3. What will happen to the Chinese economy? Does it have enough steam to continue running, or will it collapse too?

    Thanks to all!

    1. No

    2. Not gonna happen in your life time and if it did does not really matter. Because there is a lot of money (non US$) around, there is a lot of economic activity between EU, Asia and to some extent Africa as well as Canada and Latin America. If you take USA (or US$) out some people/companies will get hurt but others will benefit and prosper as usual.

    3. Not gonnna happen either. Within 25 years (possibly less) China will be the largest world economy followed by India. EU as a whole will still relatively strong possibly ahead of USA.

    BTW, do you know which countries have the largest reserve (foreign currencies and gold) and who is as we speak creating the largest reserve? It is easy to guess. Such a country will be rather well protected vs a US$ (or any other single currency) collapse.

    1929?

    I believe that the analysis is being done once and a while. I also believe that if we compare apple to apple we are no way near the 1919-1929 scenario. Besides, before a crash there should be a big jump up or what we call a Bull Market. Have you seen Bull Market recently? Since 2003, the market recovered from the previous 3 years. The market is going sideway although it is slowly going up. Now if we could bring the DOW up to 15000 if not 50000 we would possibly see crazy P/E ratios and a possible quick collapse of one or more markets. Have you seen anything close to that recently?
    This does not mean that the DOW cannot fall back to 6000 points in the coming 24 months that IMHO would be a sharp correction but if you bring the DOW down to 600 within 3 months or so only then I will say "gee we got the 1929 crisis again!"

    Good luck with your investments.


    PS: Nearly 80% of my assets are invested stocks
    Last edited by philippe; 25-11-2006 at 01:27 PM.

  5. #25

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    the HKD exchange rate is now lower than the RMB for $100 and lower...is the RMB inflating? or the HKD just weak cuz it's pegged to the USD? if i am holding alot of HKD right now, should i put my money into some red chip company instead?
    thanks for the advice


  6. #26

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    currency and equity risk are separate.
    unless you can buy A shares directly, you don't get a CNY exposure.
    you get HKD exposure. yes, HKD/CNY rate is sliding mainly because USD's big slide in the past few days.

    personally i am shifting abit of exposure into JPY instead of the rest. 8-)


  7. #27

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    d-oh! i cant buy a-shares.
    i dont want to be holding on to HKD/USD cash. i want to put it somewhere else but now there is so much talk about a crash? aiyaa
    i hv been putting money into the TSX, i just think it's relatively safe. any thoughts?


  8. #28

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    wats tsx ?

    not sure what u can invest in other than converting your money into CNY.


  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    l likely they are going to tell u to put money into mutual funds, which can be quite a bad hit if market start turning down now.
    Sorry for a basic question, but why would putting money in mutual funds be bad if the market turns down? Why are hedge funds a better asset class? I read in a newspaper that they were all blowing up this year?

    Thanks!

  10. #30

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    toronto stock exchange.


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