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US Dollar is collapsing

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  1. #21

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    Climber - entertaining reading .. NOT!

    Remind me to send you a linux manual for christmas.


  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by KnowItAll:
    Climber - entertaining reading .. NOT!

    Remind me to send you a Linux manual for Christmas.
    Linux manual!!!! Just what I wanted!!!

    Sorry KIA....I couldn't compete with your article posted yesterday.

    I guess the moral of the story is to never put all your eggs in one basket (i.e. dollars) and diversify!!!

    Commodities such as Oil and Gold are flying high...so there are plenty of hedges out there....Speaking of commodities.......there are also... diamonds....

    Jeffkong19 likes this.

  3. #23

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    a few uncomprehendable points to make this discussion more exciting

    1. What goldman owns! there were people that mentioned goldman being able to take other side of the market in subprime and CDOs. i'm cracking my mind to think of what are the other sides available in the risk hedging context.
    Unlikely for someone to leave their short CDO or short MBS open because the interest payment would be too high. so most CDO/MBS are hedged with the actual assets are the back.
    Before the re-rating of the subprime debts/CDOs, the market were still sober and we did not see heavy Mark-to-market (MTM) losses for all banks. the hit and liquidity crunch came suddenly and by then nobody in their right frame of mind would buy anything from the IB that has a MBA or CDO tag attached.

    so what the article wrote has quite a high probability of realizing strictly in my assessed opinion.

    2. China is owning so much treasury bonds that the last thing they want to do is to announce to the world they are diversifying from USD. The other group of buyers are the oil producer.
    China has too many smart negotiator and strategist to know better than to announce to the world before they sell!

    But we have seen China going into the direct risky investment path. Blackstone is the first famous one (and it came down spectacularly 8-).. Barclays is the 2nd prominent one. And notice how they have learnt their lesson. Rope in Temasek holding (much more experience in such foreign investments) and actually defer to TH with the board seat.

    3. will USD go weaker ? well, like what the now quiet HKnewbie has said, the writing had been on the wall for the past years, whether when it will happen is anybody's guess. logical to go into gold/commodity. jim rogers been talking about soft commodity and i think that's really the next big run. drop in supply and sharp rise in demand!


  4. #24

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    Talking about hedging bets .. any funds that specialize in Level 4 investments.


  5. #25

    There’s not a lot to add to what I’ve said before except I think expect more of the same. The last few days have been absolutely pivotal in the currency and commodity markets. I think we have reached a point of no return. Don’t expect any reversal of fortunes for the $ except for the inevitable correction here and there. $ will most likely weaken further. It’s an everything but $ mentality right now, so take your pick of what you want to short $ against. Central banks have stated they are shifting their USD exchange rate tolerance lower eg Euro CB will defend at 1.50, BOJ 100…wow! This is huge news!! It means they are not now defending current levels like they did before. Not that even intervention at new levels will do much in the long run anyway. CB intervention is like trying to contain a fire with a paper bag.

    With commodity prices skyrocketing and $ meltdown, stoking inflation, do people really still believe govt stats for inflation of 2-3%? Haha! Make no mistake, it’s all linked. We’re most likely at the beginning of a slippery slope to global currency devaluations and hyperinflation. Central banks will keep on printing currency to stabilise markets as they fall lower…just like what they’re doing right now under the radar. And just like what I said just now, they will have to keep shifting their goals to the changing realities that are consequences of their at core, inflationary economic policies.

    Like I said before, we’re about to enter a new paradigm of economics that most people have not experienced in their lifetime. No more buying on the dips, no more “cheap” as prices fall. The full impact of the “big one” has not yet hit. Something huge is brewing right now in the global banking system.

    For most investors, save yourself the hassle of what to do in the changing financial climate. Gold, my friends, gold! Now there’s something you can buy on the dips. If we see a global stock market crash, hold back a little as people scramble for cash and sell everything (including gold). Then you buy it and hold for the long term. Or just start buying an ETF now on a cost average basis ie fixed amount at regular intervals. We will most likely see gold in the several 1000s several years down the line so don’t worry about timing.


  6. #26

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    kia i'll do the lvl 4 investment for u.. nothing guaranteed but let's target 30% return per annum. ahha


  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by HK_Newbie100:
    Like I said before, we’re about to enter a new paradigm of economics that most people have not experienced in their lifetime. Something huge is brewing right now in the global banking system.
    Thank you Nostradamus. So, should we also start building atomic shelters, ready emergency supplies, make peace with God (if you're so inclined) as without a doubt an inevitable Apocalypse is upon us????

    Yes, the financial markets are under severe stress and turmoil, but the chaos scenarios you're talking about would be the Black Swan of all Black Swans.

    Quote Originally Posted by HK_Newbie100:
    We will most likely see gold in the several 1000s several years down the line so don’t worry about timing.
    Can you tell us exactly when this will be? I just want to start planning my sales now. Just wondering...is this going to happen immidiately after the ice caps melt from Global Warming? or just before?

    HK_Newbie I would highly suggest that you submit this thread to all major Financial Publications because there is without a doubt a Nobel Prize waiting for you....Unless.... wait.. is this Al Gore? Are you in HK?

  8. #28

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    kia i'll do the lvl 4 investment for u.. nothing guaranteed but let's target 30% return per annum. ahha
    GBP - 10M please. Sorry, we don't take USD anymore.

  9. #29

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    send the 10M GBP to my swiss account please. Quote your investment reference number #000001


    8-)
    on semi serious note, i think the super doomsday is abit of an extreme. But we can look at some reference points:

    1. what US is going to experience is very much similar to what the whole of asia went thru in 97/98 during the asian financial crisis. excessive credit given onto real estate. while tranching CDO was suppose to mitigate the risk, the overall exposure blew up badly that even BBB and A rated tranches are at risk! It took Asia close to 10 years to overcome that major real estate correction!

    2. but with USD being the semi-central currency of reference, how would a trashing of USD impact the global market. While most countries are fairly fiscally conservative and stronger (other than US)...

    I think one good investment theme now would be the mining companies with the huge mines. something i'd definitely look at.

    Last edited by freeier; 08-11-2007 at 07:25 PM.

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by freeier:
    I think one good investment theme now would be the mining companies with the huge mines. something i'd definitely look at.
    There has been a lot of consolidation and activity in this part of the market for the past couple of years, but it has hotted up recently.

    Confirmed just now that BHP actually put a proposal to Rio Tinto. Anyone worth their salt will have had either one or both of these in their portfolio for a while.

    http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...-31037,00.html