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Expats giving up getting on the ladder

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  1. #21

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    Yes I would like to hear about the Malaysian solution too.

    Could it be just let the prices rise, build more houses and claim the prices are now higher and sell as many as you can? Just keep going at it and as long as no one mention the word bubble, we'll be fine? oh also not forgetting that we could sell these property to foreigners! who price it at their local expectation


  2. #22

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    Malaysian solution or Hong Kong solution? Its all nonsense. There wouldn't be a need for any solution if not for the greedy bankers/developers who in turn influence government policies.

    The problem is the notion that "homes" are huge investment vehicles. Homes are meant to be lived in, not used speculated upon. The US learned this lesson the hard way, and for some reason those in Hong Kong aren't able to learn from it.

    When the average price of a home in an area far exceeds the average pay of the average individual living in the area....you got problems. Back in the US, I had friends buying million dollar (US) homes who were only making about 80K (US) a year. Thats insane. And I see the same thing here. Home prices are too expensive, they are propped up by low interest rates and foreign buyers but that won't last forever. Hong Kong is a massive bubble, just like the US. The only difference is that the average Hong Kong owner has a lot of money tied up in thier home so they can't walk away as easily (thus the crash will be slower and longer).


  3. #23

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    Funny that you blame everyone except the ones that actually are to blame and that would be the buyers. People shouldn't be buying if they can't afford it and we shouldn't be expecting banks, government and developers to regulate their greed or stupidity.

    I love crashes and catastrophes, that's when people who manage their money wisely can walk in and pick up bargains with limited risk.

    Saying that the US learned a lesson is complete bullocks...how many times has there been crashes? Did HKer learn any lessons in 1997? It's a never ending cycle of greed and fear. There never much lessons to be learnt as long as you have humans that are part of the equations.

    Let the fools play the game and the wiser ones pick up the pieces and start all over again...

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  4. #24

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    interesting announcement from the US Fed today that interest rates are now tied to specific inflation and unemployment targets (versus being held at 0).

    Assuming these targets are met then US interest rates will begin to rise - perhaps that will set the cat amongst the pigeons in HK if the peg is maintained.


  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by ycchai:
    Yes I would like to hear about the Malaysian solution too.
    Foreigners are allowed to buy only luxury properties, defined as a property costing more than 500,000 ringgit ($162,000).

  6. #26

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    I do wonder though if this was a local forum (say the "discuss.com.hk" forum), what would the reaction be? Would they be be happy with the government action? Think it is not enough? Too severe? Ultimately it boils down to who you are. If you are a local buyer thinking of buying a home (to live in), then maybe you might be happy. If you are mainland speculator, you would be pissed (or maybe not, just move to another investment vehicle...cough...car park spots...cough). If you are an unintended victim (expat) you would be pissed, but then there is nothing you can do about it, is there (short of packing up your bags and leave). The government can't discriminate against mainlanders blatantly (for obvious political reasons), so they have to apply the new stamp duty blanketly.

    At the end of the day, it simply shows the unhealthy dependence of HK on real estate, like the "resource curse" countries that relies on natural resources (oil). Except in those cases, it isn't their own citizens and expats who live there that pays for it...

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  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Watercooler:
    I do wonder though if this was a local forum (say the "discuss.com.hk" forum), what would the reaction be? Would they be be happy with the government action? Think it is not enough? Too severe? Ultimately it boils down to who you are.
    Just thinking about old Chinese building apartments (walkups) in Mid-Levels and how locals have progressively moved out selling them to expats to do up. Good money for the family. Removing or lessening expat purchase is no good for them and locals not too interested in these properties unless very cheap and if so in a declining state. Removing liquidity from the market not a good thing for all parties involved.

  8. #28

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    But how long do you think this 15% stamp will keep? It might benefit us foreigners by keeping us out of a bubble. Lets see what happens. Once interest rates rise and more land is sold. The price would drop and government probably wants to avoid it doubling again. Fact is if you make 20k you can still afford a flat. A married couple could be 20k x 2 =40k. So its still possible although of course not the nicest and biggest place.


  9. #29

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    If the flats go up another 50% by 2015-2016 and rates increase, a much larger % drop could be anticipated so perhaps its all a short term thing to stabilize.


  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by booth:
    But how long do you think this 15% stamp will keep? It might benefit us foreigners by keeping us out of a bubble. Lets see what happens. Once interest rates rise and more land is sold. The price would drop and government probably wants to avoid it doubling again. Fact is if you make 20k you can still afford a flat. A married couple could be 20k x 2 =40k. So its still possible although of course not the nicest and biggest place.

    That was my initial reaction. I'm betting that most of the foreigners complaining about this measure will be thanking the HK gov. 5 or 10 years from now for keeping them out of this mess. The housing bubble here makes the US one look small by comparison. The only thing is.... I can see this bubble holding up for long time due to the rise and wealth of the mainland.

    So to recap what the HK gov. did for it's people....

    -raise the rents for the poor and middle class
    -save the wealthier foreigners from entering the housing market at just the wrong time
    Last edited by closedcasket; 22-12-2012 at 05:31 AM. Reason: should proof read prior to posting not after

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