Hong Kong Property Sales Down 36% in April

[walkup]

HONG KONG, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Hong Kong recorded 4,387 sale and purchase agreements for all building units in April, down 35.9 percent on March, and 59 percent year-on-year, the Hong Kong Lands Registry announced Friday.

The total consideration for these agreements stood at 31.9 billion HK dollars (about 4.1 billion U.S. dollars), down 28.3 percent on March and 47.6 percent year-on-year.

There were 3,427 agreements for residential units, with a total consideration of 18.7 billion HK dollars.

[shri]

I think I saw something in today's newspaper indicating that there were no second-hand property transactions on the Island over the weekend (most of the few transactions were in New Territories)

[Mat]

I think I saw something in today's newspaper indicating that there were no second-hand property transactions on the Island over the weekend (most of the few transactions were in New Territories)

In the 20 or so properties that they use as benchmark.

There has been sales otherwise.

[shri]

True. Thought the number of samples were 50. However like any index benchmark this should reflect an average sentiment?

Not sure how statistically valid the sample is.

[virago]

True. Thought the number of samples were 50. However like any index benchmark this should reflect an average sentiment?

Not sure how statistically valid the sample is.

A margin for error would be pretty high on 50. 600 would give you a alot lower rate of error.

[jgl]

In the 20 or so properties that they use as benchmark.

There has been sales otherwise.

What's the index called, and who measures it? I've not come across it before... though admittedly I have not looked.

[virago]

Original Post Deleted

Alot of people do think sunshine does come from my arse....

Enlighten us then what would be the margin of error to obtain a confidence rate of 95% with a survey size of 50?

[walkup]

True. Thought the number of samples were 50. However like any index benchmark this should reflect an average sentiment?

Not sure how statistically valid the sample is.

One can drown in averages and I am not quite sure how valuable when one is constrained by a selling tax sitting on one's purchase for 3 years. Most recent reports indicate a small drop in prices but whether the buyer/seller gap can be bridged with an up to 20% drop is a very slow-moving story so far.

[OffThePeak]

HOW SWEET IT WAS...

(sometimes you don't know how good you have it until you fall on hard times.)

I just had a very frank chat with one of the local agents here, whom I have know for a few years. He was moaning about the state of the market, and after hearing some figures from him, I can understand why.

He is one of the older agents, who has worked in the Olympic station area for a long time, at least back to 2008 when I first moved here.

He said the Sales and Purchase market is "almost dead." Normally, he would expect perhaps 100 or more Sales transactions in a month, for the whole of the Olympic station area. In April, there were only 9 (!) transactions. So far in May, there are only 4. This really isn't enough for the agents to live on, and many agents are now being let go. The rest are under big pressure, and do not see how and when it will improve.

I asked him about Rentals. He said that part of the market is "still okay", but it doesn't pay very well. On a $20,000 per month rent, they make only half a month: $10,000 commission. And that part of the market is also now a bit slow. A good month would be 150 rental transactions for modern buildings in the area, and last month was probably just over 100 (it's a slow time of year as well, I believe.)

The main problem is that tenants now have a lot of choice, and so can be slower to make their minds up. When flat owners saw the market was slowing down, those with vacant flats for sale decided to rent their flats out instead. So there is now an unusually large supply of flats to rent.

Will rents come down? He said that was possible, at least until the supply tightened. But there wasn't any significant drop in rents yet. (Note the extra supply at recently completed" Park Summit and Coronation seems to have been absorbed pretty well at this time.)

I am sympathetic, since every honest person should be able to make a living, and I know this guy works hard. I do expect that some agents are going to start getting pretty aggressive with sellers to lower their price, because some are truly desperate.

[Skyhook]

The same thing is happening in the Sai Kung district, property sales are very slow, but rentals are keeping their head above water.