Are these words from 2010 not crystal clear?:
"My own cycle work on Long Term cycles suggests the final top in HK property may not come until 2015-2017."
The MATH is the same Now as it was 5 years ago, and even 8-10 years ago, when I first started writing about it.
Many people expected a dip in 2010-2012, and we got one.
It was more like 10%, depending on the index. Not the 20-30% that some, including me, had expected for a few months at the time. Of course, I adjusted my thinking fairly soon, when rates did not rise much, and HK property held.
The dip we saw in 2008-2009 was the "MId-cycle" dip that the 18-year cycle calls for (though it came a bit early off a 2003 low.) Expecting a rise in rates, which was widely predicted at that time, would push down HK property, and correct some of that big rally from the 2009 Low, was a wrong forecast that was shared by many. - That forecast of many was not coming from the 18 year cycle at all. It was based on other thinking which proved to be wrong eventually. So what?
The 18 Year cycle has worked well in many markets, including Hong Kong. Why try and twist my words, to make that seem untrue?
Here's a summary of how forecasters were adjusting their predictions back in 2010 when we first got a whiff of higher rates:
TOM HOLLAND's WARNING - for Business in Asia - SCMP's Monitor
Don't get in the Way, it's a stampede for the exits
+ If Europe's banks sustain big losses on their US$2.8 Trillion of PIIGS govt. debt in the event of a sovereign default, they will be forced to cutback on their lending to other parts of the world, including Asia,
+ In 2008, developed world banks reduced their exposure to Asia by almost US$300 Bn, with devastating impact
+ Europe a big customer: Asian cores supplied 42% of the EU's total import demand, 2/3rds of which is electronic gadgetry. HK is especially vulnerable, with 12% of goods shipped thru HK.
+ Asia's FX reserves will cushion the blow, but company profits (and jobs!) will be hit
HK Property agents are changing their forecast to "No Growth":
Forecaster-- : - Old - : New Forecast
Credit Suisse : + 10% : -5-7% in 2 mos.
JonesLangLS: Higher : Sideways
Knight Frank. : Higher : Sideways
Midland Rlty. : Higher : Lower
UBS, Nomura : Had big increases, that they did not revise