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10 year savings plan

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  1. #11

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    Thanks for the input Chris.

    There are so many funds available and some, by different providers, seem to invest in the same kind of area. What criteria do you use to choose one fund over another?

    The way I see it is that a fund usually consists of an arbitrary set of stocks picked by a fund manager who is supposed to have read all the books and should know what they're doing. Yet some funds perform well while others perform poorly. We, the investors, have enough trouble assessing whether one stock is worth buying or not, let alone whether an arbitrary set of stocks is worth investing in.

    If I have to put a lot of time and effort to study how to pick funds/stocks well, and it sounds like it's a requisite from what I've read in this forum, I might as build my own portfoilo myself instead of paying charges and commission to a third party for the privilege of having access to a random selection of funds and having my own money locked up for a decade.

    I guess a true financial adviser ought to give his client a reading list on how to invest before actually trying to sell anything, but that's never going to happen in Hong Kong

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  2. #12

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    Have you read The Loser's Game ?


  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Morrison:
    Have you read The Loser's Game ?
    Do you mean "Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles D Ellis? No, I'd not even heard of it before. Just looked it up on Amazon. Saw this as the most 'helpful' review:

    "Actually all the information in this book can summarized into a short paragraph (read this and skip the book):
    You can never beat the market so invest in index funds. In the long run Taxes and Inflation will erode your investments and only stocks can safeguard you against it, so invest in index funds which have low taxes. Think long term (20+) years. Short term you will lose money so invest in index funds and dont go checking the stock quotes every day, or even every year. And did i mention index funds"

    In your opinion, is that a fair summary of the conclusion?

  4. #14

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    The Loser's Game is the original article by Ellis on which the book Winning the Loser's Game was based on.

    Reading it now.


  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat98:
    The Loser's Game is the original article by Ellis on which the book Winning the Loser's Game was based on.

    Reading it now.
    http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v51.n1.1865

    I thought the use of tennis to explain the difference between a Winner's Game and a Loser's Game was quite amusing.
    Last edited by tomcat98; 11-09-2015 at 11:58 PM.

  6. #16

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    Well, the things I have extracted from it are: preserve your capital in order to stay in the game, and no fancy moves, just keep the ball rolling.

    I just thought in your current situation this read might give you some inspiration.

    There are many more books out there,
    try to find out what people read.

    Last edited by Morrison; 12-09-2015 at 07:30 AM.

  7. #17

    I've read "Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles D Ellis. Quite a good book but I'd read "Asset Allocation Balancing Financial Risk" by Roger Gibson before and that made a greater impact on me.

    There's not many index funds available on Skandia and even if there were their advantage would be eroded by the extra fees Skandia charges.

    Anyway I'm stuck in some of my savings plans so I can only do the best I can with it. The way I chose my Skandia funds was I compared the performance of similar funds e.g. global equity funds as a group. I primarily compared 1, 3, and 5 year fund performance. 10 year performance also if it was available and the funds had been running that long and shorter term performance as a tie breaker. This then gave me the top performing funds for each group that I was interested in. I'm a long-term buy and hold guy.

    I don't care which individual stocks the fund holds as the fund manager is supposed to manage that and that's what we pay him for. The fund holdings also change over time.

    For my core portfolio I was only interested in broad based funds i.e. no single country fund except for the US as that's the largest stock market in the world.

    And that's how I arrived at the short list of funds I wrote earlier.

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  8. #18

    Hi There,

    I know that Independent Financial Advisors have bad reputation among you guys but it really depends on that particular Advisor. IFA in a way is a sales kind of job thats why reputable IFA companies can easily hire an individual as long as they are able to sell something (even though it may mean that they dont really have solid foundation or knowledge in the Finance and Economics Sector). There are hundreds of plans, products and funds in the market, in the end it sums up to that particular advisor and how has he done his analysis. Obviously, if you are a lazy one you can just ask your seniors about what should he recommend to a client and not real know about the very realistic details (informations such as why is reason this fund exists, etc. and it all links back to our society and general economics; not just some vague informations but realistic informations).

    My recommendations is:
    1) Don't surrender early (unless you are very keen on doing so) , as a golden rule the Equity market always goes up even though it might fluctuate and even crash but remember that when you signed the plan it was suppose to be a long term investment. It is very common that some funds perform bad in the beginning but eventually rise up (Obviously this is very vague because I dont know what funds you subscribed to)

    2) The better choice would be to pick a different funds ( I assume you dont want any find advice from your IFA or he/she is just not there to support your choices). Anyways, since ur plan is tied up for the next 10 years. The best performing sector is as follows:

    -Biotech & healthcare sector: After the 2nd world war,the baby boom spiked up the world population and at this moment those babies are turning old (60-80 years old), so a large chunk of money is going in the medical and healthcare
    sector.
    (Franklin Templeton Investments, Hong Kong [look for biotechnology])
    (PARVEST EQUITY WORLD HEALTH CARE - BNP Paribas Investment Partners Hong Kong)

    the above is just 2 of the many fund houses that offers funds in the biotechnology sector. You may have a look at the informations and decide for yourself but just because one certain fund is doing bad now doesnt mean it will do bad in the future. Look for the bigger picture and see for it in the non commercial & economic side. But ofcourse if a fund is doing good doesnt mean it will always do good.

    -ASEAN countries: China is not china it was a decade ago. IF you go to H&M or ZARA, they no longer say made in china but it says made in Indonesia, or thailand or vietnam or india etc. Its because these countries are the next manufacturing hub. And realistically speaking doesnt matter what generation or which year you were born whether the 1800s or 1900s , things will be manufactured just because people need it and population is increasing with time so more demand for manufacturing things. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership) - this is the very latest information have a read and you will understand why is this sector going to boom.
    you can find funds for these countries or sectors or whatever it relates to them in any fund houses (you can just go to the franklin templeton or bnp paripas IP fund houses that I mentioned above or any other fund houses and choose the sectors with these countries by urself and see the performances.

    -Australia- Well, australia is part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and it will also gain from it but if you are planning to stick with your saving plans for only few years more , then you might consider investing in funds in Australian Dollar (BECAUSE IT IS DAMN CHEAP RIGHT NOW) and also if you might find it bit dodgy (your personal opinion) that you would invest in a western country rather then an Asian country then Australia it , u can look for funds in australian dollars or australia. (BTW USA might not be the best one to invest other then in Biotechnology & healtcare {80% of it is in USA}).


    Anyways hope this information helps,
    <snip> , so if you feel like my advice is wrong (google is your friend).
    Not all IFA are bad. Just that most of them are.
    SO next time if someone tries to sell you something, make sure that person is really passionate about what he is selling.

    Have a good day.

    Last edited by Editor; 05-11-2015 at 02:40 PM. Reason: No soliciting in the forums please

  9. #19

    My opinion:-

    1. If the performance of the fund is un-acceptable for some time, don't waste time and find better one asap.
    2. For lazy person, in Hong Kong, 2800.HK tracker fund is very good choice, which allow to get the same performance with HSI.


  10. #20

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    Sep 2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExpatFinance852:
    Hi There,

    I know that Independent Financial Advisors have bad reputation among you guys
    I came across this Dilbert strip in a Sheldon Jacobs book and was reminded of my foolishness:

    drumbrake, shri and Wong Jeremy like this.