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How low will it go? Centa-City Leading Index

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  1. #31

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    6,317

    I can see why the stock price is down, property prices and what buyers are paying is effectively the same. There has been a shift, instead of 3-8% going to the government they are taking 15-30% and the developer is eating the loss.

    Costs to build are high and will remain high. Labour shortages is a problem, labour costs go higher too.

    Essentially the developers have the monopoly on property prices and control the market. Whether you own or not, you have no choice to buy on the second hand market and heck if you sell you have no where to live.

    Investments will continue to rent out, yields are good and it's fairly easy to rent out in Hk with little hands on required.

    With low transactions and limited supply on the second hand market, demand is just growing and growing. People will prefer new developments and Yuen long is a targeted area. I can foresee Hk$20,000 per sq ft average in the next 5 years. Being closer to China will be more important as time progresses.

    Businesses are already moving out of CBD in search of cheaper rents so the default will no longer be the default. Exciting times to come for NT.


  2. #32

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    6,317

    I think the government should do away with these stamp duties. It's only hurting the people who live here. I don't see how it encourages the working class to do better when any investment property has a 15% tax on it.

    If an individual wants to buy a second property as their retirement nest egg, why can't they?

    Upgrading homes has become more difficult. The fees are just too high. Granted you have 6 months to sell to get the lower rates, this is just not realistic to get the best price. So people are stuck.

    The golden years of someone's life are limited and the govt really damages families with these taxes.

    Let the course of free trade flow and it will correct itself accordingly. Times of ups and downs bring opportunities for the youth. The youth now have no chance with the current setup.


  3. #33

    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Happy Valley
    Posts
    656

    Guys, is there a good index to follow rental prices?


  4. #34

    My prediction for 2017.

    https://youtu.be/_0ASWKwQwzE?t=1m7s


  5. #35

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    6,317

    Does the coaster stay on the tracks or fall off? :-p
    it is China after all.


  6. #36

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    8,280

    My mortgage rate has just jumped from 0.9% to 1.4% in the last month or two (Hibor risen by 0.5%). For me it means an extra $1000+ per month in my mortgage repayments. Whilst this in itself is not huge and not the end of the world, it is actually the largest jump in interest rates in HK since at least 2009 when I purchased my place. For the last 7 years my rate has always hovered between 0.8% and 1%. I hope this is only a blip and not the start of a new era that could be very painful for a lot of people.

    MandM! likes this.

  7. #37

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    6,317

    Mine jumped too
    Wish I had 0.9%
    I just refi'd to get 1% cash back and H+1.4
    Isn't looking that attractive now.
    Am guessing it will auto switch to the P minus cap. :-/

    kimwy66 likes this.

  8. #38

    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    薄扶林
    Posts
    47,970
    Original Post Deleted
    First time owners paying $15-17,xxx / sq ft?!? Must have been hoarding some SERIOUS liquidity.

  9. #39

    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    薄扶林
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    47,970
    Original Post Deleted
    They don't lie - they usually just repeat what they're told, without questioning common sense.

  10. #40

    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    13,099
    Quote Originally Posted by HowardCoombs:
    After being on the market for 6+ months, we just sold.
    Now lets see if we sold at the top or we sold too early, on the way to a new top....
    I'm out. We closed today and picked up the cheque. Now waiting tomorrow for the cheque to clear

    I'm glad to be out. With the interest rates combined with the drumpf and his mouthing off all over the place, things look very dicy for Hong Kong property IMO. Nothing will dry up the liquidity faster than one bad move by the twit from the other side of the world or one knee jerk reaction from up north. Happy to be on the sidelines now to watch the fun and games....Like this:

    https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/01/1...y-state-media/
    civil_servant likes this.