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What is a rational property price?

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  1. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Rocky:
    Thank you civil servant. He was indeed. I was minded to point out the same thing. But didn’t want to be accused of trolling
    Having said that, I think if the Randy one was still around I think he would be relishing in the correctness of the various arguments and predications he made at the time. And he might be urging others to re-read that epic thread.

  2. #72

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    Be fair Randy achieved a 100% return every year for 20 years, owned over 50 properties and was a top athlete. Give credit where it is due
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  3. #73

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    I have to say his comment on market rental yields having a constant spread from long term treasury yields is an interesting one. I'm going to calculate the correlation coefficient between them using historical data when I have some time.
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  4. #74

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    Original Post Deleted

    Randy was recommending the Link Reit back in 2011. Anyone who followed that advice would be pretty pleased with themselves now I reckon:

    https://geoexpat.com/forum/155/thread210490-2.html

    https://geoexpat.com/forum/135/thread192985-2.html

    https://geoexpat.com/forum/155/thread202253.html

    Since that time the stock price has doubled, nice regular dividends were paid each half year, and the HKD as strengthened.

  5. #75
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    Not trying to troll you, jrkob, but it's 5 years. 2017 - 2012 = 5.
    Big Rocky likes this.

  6. #76

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    Hmmm. Wait a minute ... the two occasions when the biggest spreads existed were the exact two occasions when (in hindsight) it was the best time to buy property in HK. You might just be onto something here jrkob ...

  7. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    Not trying to troll you, jrkob, but it's 5 years. 2017 - 2012 = 5.
    Guess he just might be not that good with numbers ...

  8. #78
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    Who cares what he claims. It's not like the field of forecast analysis has any credibility to begin with.

    https://www.economist.com/news/finan...istently-wrong

  9. #79

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    Not sure whether he was bragging or not. That’s not really relevant. What is relevant is that he was right.

    As as for when he made these predictions here is a very good quote worth revisiting:

    https://geoexpat.com/forum/155/thread179497-13.html

  10. #80

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    Here’s the quote verbatim from 2011:

    “There really is free money out there for the grabbing with rates and investment returns being the way they are. You guys who keep saying property will fall sounds like the chicken who kept saying the sky is
    falling.

    Look at the reality and consider the
    facts. We are only just emerging from a
    severe economic crisis. China, with a
    billion plus people is awash with cash. Outlook for rates in
    Kong is very low for the foreseeable future. For many expats in HK earning an ok salary with the ability to get leverage and finance this is a golden opportunity to make some great money.

    I am actually very conservative with any investment I make. I have a track record of continuously making the right calls over the last 20 years. The key is to be critical but also objective. The big picture is simple. USA will keep printing money and rates low. China
    and Asia will keep booming. HK rates will stay low for some time and HK property will boom. If you think prices are high now you ain't seen nothing yet. You will look back in a few years and be amazed.”


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