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Is it even possible for HK property prices to go flat or down?

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  1. #31

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    You're basing on the general population which is wrong. Firstly, you cannot say half the people have subsidized housing and thus the median income is too low in HK for half to purchase. They already have for life subsidized housing.

    Second, you should consider the % of people who own property. In San Fran it's 41-46% whereas in HK it's 50%. Not sure if these numbers are correct but basing on "median income is 16k" is just stupid. You have no numbers to support what you're saying either.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-ko...ownership-rate

    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/sf.c...wners-sf-repot

    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/www....ea-cities/amp/

    Further, the article above says that you need 28.7 years to save up the down payment for a property in San Francisco. Someone earlier posted that you need 10 years to save up to buy a property in HK.

    HK has great opportunity and it's sad that expats come here and bash it. I always ask why don't you go back home and expats always say no no. Washed up losers who couldn't make it back home and have no appreciation for this flourishing place.


  2. #32

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    https://www.quora.com/How-do-people-...yment-required

    This guy works at Google and earns US$325k per year and said he can't afford a decent condo.

    Yet when a newbie comes on here and says hey I earn hk$80k per month, geoexpaters are like wah so much can live in a baller apartment. Lol

    Standards ....

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    HK has great opportunity .... ...this flourishing place.
    As you point out 20% of the 18-35 population in SFO owns a house. Recent article in SCMP indicated that this is only 10% for the same age group in Hong Kong. The article in SCMP also stated that only about 22% of this agegroup in HK is considering to buy an apartment in HK. Most gave up and buy property in surrounding countries like Thailand and Malaysia. So to me that is a bad sign for the demographics of Hong Kong with an already aging population. This aging proces will only increase as typically folks buying in HK have already made their fortune.

    It is easy to say it is a flourishing place but really only for the elite able to buy (multiple) apartment(s) now (and the older generation who bought when it was still affordable).

    in the real world, the one we all live in, Hong Kong is becoming more and more an aging elitist country in all aspects.

    It would be good if we don’t look at Hong Kong through the lens of a few expats who make a shitload of money (as we are only guests and I for one realize how privileged I am) but instead look at the young people in HK who have no hope of ever getting on the property ladder. So definitely not my definition of a flourishing country.
    Last edited by Edwardstorm; 19-05-2018 at 07:55 PM.

  4. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Edwardstorm:

    It would be good if we don’t look at Hong Kong through the lens of a few expats who make a shitload of money (as we are only guests and I for one realize how privileged I am) but instead look at the young people in HK who have no hope of ever getting on the property ladder. So definitely not my definition of a flourishing country.
    Agree but l just talking to relative’s kids who’s graduate, they do have a very insular outlook and don’t want to leave HK to find jobs because all their friends are here and there’s someone to do their washing... 70s hong kongers had more balls to emigrate to find a better life but some of today’s youth seems too pampered (helpers doing all their chores etc?)
    MandM!, shri and geoheyexpat like this.

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Edwardstorm:
    It would be good if we don’t look at Hong Kong through the lens of a few expats who make a shitload of money (as we are only guests and I for one realize how privileged I am) but instead look at the young people in HK who have no hope of ever getting on the property ladder. So definitely not my definition of a flourishing country.
    As much as I agree with you, I have to disagree with the doomsday conclusion. The market is high now, but there's no guarantee it will remain as such. There will also be a generation of inheritors once the old crowd bites the dust. Joining the property ladder is also not a prerequisite for succeeding in this town. There are a shitload of opportunities for young people as worker shortages exist in many professions. The median salary has been creeping up steadily in the past 8 years at a rate between 4-5%.

    I don't buy these articles that say young people can't marry or have kids because they're not owning their flat. Neither of those require ownership for success.
    MandM! likes this.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:

    I don't buy these articles that say young people can't marry or have kids because they're not owning their flat. Neither of those require ownership for success.
    Yes, because raising kids in a micro flat the size of a parking space is totally doable. It's not just the price, it's the abysmal sizes that are an issue. The average living space per person is only 15 sqm in HK. Japan is 35 sqm and USA 77 sqm just for comparison.
    TheBrit likes this.

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    https://www.quora.com/How-do-people-...yment-required

    This guy works at Google and earns US$325k per year and said he can't afford a decent condo.

    Yet when a newbie comes on here and says hey I earn hk$80k per month, geoexpaters are like wah so much can live in a baller apartment. Lol

    Standards ....
    The Googler has saved $250k, which is "not even enough for the 20% down payment", suggesting he's looking at $1.5m+ properties.

    In HK, a HKD10m property requires a 50% downpayment, which would make it doubly unaffordable for the same person.
    TheBrit and shri like this.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    Yes, because raising kids in a micro flat the size of a parking space is totally doable. It's not just the price, it's the abysmal sizes that are an issue. The average living space per person is only 15 sqm in HK. Japan is 35 sqm and USA 77 sqm just for comparison.
    If you read about the history of USA, apartments in New York were actually MUCH smaller, and they had cramming issues too. It's not a unique aspect and in the future it could get worse as the population continues to grow and focus on living in key areas. I'm already seeing some towns in US where you used to see houses would be developed into smaller apartments/condos/townhomes. Space is decreasing in these areas and prices are rising.

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wong Jeremy:
    Agree but l just talking to relative’s kids who’s graduate, they do have a very insular outlook and don’t want to leave HK to find jobs because all their friends are here and there’s someone to do their washing... 70s hong kongers had more balls to emigrate to find a better life but some of today’s youth seems too pampered (helpers doing all their chores etc?)
    I know many HK'ers who went to Canada/US and in the end they came back to HK. Because they can live with their families and everything is taken care of for them. It's a lazy thing but also HK and Asia in general have a special connection and bonds within families, which I admire. On the other hand, the US culture is more along the lines, you're 18 get the F out. Clean up your own S#&!. Those HKers who are complaining simply believe the grass is greener on the other side and never had the courage to make the move -- that's great, but if you want to live there then go.

    I've spoken with plenty of HK families in the states and they regret their choice to move to America - super long working hours as they run their own businesses. The ones who are doing well or at least can say they are happy are more along the lines of woman who moved to the US, married to an American and now are housewives and might work part-time for fun.

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edwardstorm:
    As you point out 20% of the 18-35 population in SFO owns a house. Recent article in SCMP indicated that this is only 10% for the same age group in Hong Kong. The article in SCMP also stated that only about 22% of this agegroup in HK is considering to buy an apartment in HK. Most gave up and buy property in surrounding countries like Thailand and Malaysia. So to me that is a bad sign for the demographics of Hong Kong with an already aging population. This aging proces will only increase as typically folks buying in HK have already made their fortune.

    It is easy to say it is a flourishing place but really only for the elite able to buy (multiple) apartment(s) now (and the older generation who bought when it was still affordable).

    in the real world, the one we all live in, Hong Kong is becoming more and more an aging elitist country in all aspects.

    It would be good if we don’t look at Hong Kong through the lens of a few expats who make a shitload of money (as we are only guests and I for one realize how privileged I am) but instead look at the young people in HK who have no hope of ever getting on the property ladder. So definitely not my definition of a flourishing country.
    Are you saying 10% of the entire youth HK population own property? Does that also include the 50% in public housing, or the HKers who will sign up and wait for public housing? What is the eligible pool of people who want to buy or are in the private sector?

    Do people actually want to own property? Or simply people want to enjoy the investment potential and profits of owning property and now in hindsight people have serious regrets, and tie it to emotions of I don't have a place to live, I can't get married, etc. etc. I have always been pro-property ownership and young people typically do not think about owning a property nor saving money. Whether it's Americans or HKers, plenty of people just never executed the process to buy. I started picking up property at a young age and my peers thought I was crazy, seriously. Plenty of Americans and HKers had the means to buy property and simply didn't. Everyone wants it when it's expensive (who doesn't want 1000 bitcoins at a $1 each).

    There are people who can't afford property, there are cycles in property. Let's see if the next downturn, do people buy property when it's cheap or simply wait because they feel the price will drop lower and don't want to take the risk.

    Property ownership is a risk and an investment, not a right.

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