4% retirement rule - valid in HK

[SirNotAppearing]

Would take a few days, but one could probably create an Excel model to do similar, though would have to update variables manually at times.

[shri]

Would take a few days, but one could probably create an Excel model to do similar, though would have to update variables manually at times.

Thats your grand father's excel .. most spreadsheets, esp Google Sheets have built in stock prices etc.

[SirNotAppearing]

Thats your grand father's excel .. most spreadsheets, esp Google Sheets have built in stock prices etc.

Not interested in sharing our finances with Mr. Alphabet, tho.

[huja]

No new ground covered but a good primer if you are just starting out or a good refresher at an uncertain time in our world both economically and politically.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/02/b...llocation.html

[PLamHK]

It's paywalled, but I guess it's saying get out of stocks and into bonds?

The thing is, nearly all my stocks deliver far, far better dividends than any bonds that aren't complete junk, and in the short term I'm really not that bothered about the share price. For solid real economy companies I have confidence that in the long run they will (on average across my portfolio) go up.

[aw451]

It's paywalled, but I guess it's saying get out of stocks and into bonds?

The thing is, nearly all my stocks deliver far, far better dividends than any bonds that aren't complete junk, and in the short term I'm really not that bothered about the share price. For solid real economy companies I have confidence that in the long run they will (on average across my portfolio) go up.

The article is just a reminder to rebalance, since stocks have outperformed bonds for a while so your asset allocation is now probably more skewed towards stocks than your risk appetite when you built the portfolio.

[shri]

Unfortunately these articles are completely nuance free.

Some stocks behave like bonds.. interest rate sensitivity included. Your goal might not be safe withdrawals and also draw down time frames ..

Some portfolios are designed for income, some for growth, some for the benefit of the next generation etc etc ..

I also think in a globalized economy and globalized investor class.. do examples from 1930s make sense / are they relevant?

My question, say you have a property which delivers a decent living income.. would you still go for a 60/40 or would you opt for a 100% equities allocation..

Here is how a 60/40 portfolio, tracking the entire U.S. stock and investment-grade bond markets, would have performed from 1926 through 2023, according to Vanguard:

Average annual return, 8.7 percent.

Worst calendar year, 1931, with a return of minus 26.6 percent.

Best year, 1933, with a return of 36.7 percent.

For comparison, here’s a pure stock portfolio. It has higher returns but lower lows:

Average annual return, 10.3 percent.

Worst calendar year, 1931, with a return of minus 43.1 percent.

Best year, 1933, with a return of 54.2 percent.