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2020 - Buying Property in HK

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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoista
    If experts are a problem where should people go for trustworthy information?
    Look at their last -1-3-5-10 year forecast for accuracy.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebor
    You had one job guys...one job!
    Fixed.

  3. #23

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    Haha now it looks as though ive started a thread purely to entice him to post.

    Anyway all in good jest @bdw

    shri, mrgoodkat, Andy SNK and 2 others like this.

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trebor
    Haha now it looks as though ive started a thread purely to entice him to post.

    Anyway all in good jest @bdw
    you call his name 3 times and he will show up

  5. #25

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    Has someone invested in a property around Sai Kung or Clearwater Bay? I am considering those areas due to space primarily. I was not sure if worth taking the leap here but reading through the comments helped. Any tips/concerns to be aware of?

    I'd like to stay long term in HK but been getting more opportunities in other Asian countries recently. So may have to relocate but would like to have an investment in HK. The value appreciation here seems better than other places in Asia (risk factor aside).


  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri
    Some people: "You have to buy property to save money" - https://geoexpat.com/forum/newpostinthread355321.html
    I have the greatest respect for bdw and his contributions, but what worked before isn't necessarily going to work again. Movement in capital and rental values magnifies your experience in both directions.
    Last edited by AsianXpat0; 09-01-2020 at 03:58 PM.

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri
    Look at their last -1-3-5-10 year forecast for accuracy.
    Well, don't look to me - I went on record as saying HK property was far too expensive to make for a good investment several years ago and the market subsequently proved me very wrong.
    bbchris likes this.

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
    Well, don't look to me - I went on record as saying HK property was far too expensive to make for a good investment several years ago and the market subsequently proved me very wrong.
    Not sure what your reasoning was back then, but if lack of affordability was the argument, that hasn’t changed, but the environment may be different now.

    2009-2019
    Least unaffordable homes - supported by monetary policy tracking US easing
    More unaffordable homes - supported by the above, Mainland prosperity, goosed by fiscal stimulus and the desire to export capital from the Mainland

    2019-2029
    Doesn’t look like the same supportive tailwind for mortgage rates from a macro perspective, fundamental demand decreases if fewer mainland Chinese want to acquire property in Hong Kong, and the appointment of a Liaison Office head with no local connections to the tycoons speaks to not prioritising their concerns over China’s.
    None of that sounds like a recipe for higher prices, and buying property always looks good if value increases, but I’m curious how many are happy to own something declining in value. Everyone unhappy to own something with a declining asset value should be motivated to sell, so wouldn’t there be a frenzy once that rationale disappears?
    I may be wrong, but the above seems logical.
    Last edited by AsianXpat0; 09-01-2020 at 08:05 PM.

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by AsianXpat0
    Not sure what your reasoning was back then, but if lack of affordability was the argument, that hasn’t changed, but the environment may be different now.

    2009-2019
    Least unaffordable homes - supported by monetary policy tracking US easing
    More unaffordable homes - supported by the above, Mainland prosperity, goosed by fiscal stimulus and the desire to export capital from the Mainland

    2019-2029
    Doesn’t look like the same supportive tailwind for mortgage rates from a macro perspective, fundamental demand decreases if fewer mainland Chinese want to acquire property in Hong Kong, and the appointment of a Liaison Office head with no local connections to the tycoons speaks to not prioritising their concerns over China’s.
    None of that sounds like a recipe for higher prices, and buying property always looks good if value increases, but I’m curious how many are happy to own something declining in value. Everyone unhappy to own something with a declining asset value should be motivated to sell, so wouldn’t there be a frenzy once that rationale disappears?
    I may be wrong, but the above seems logical.
    This is what I wrote back in October 2012:

    "I still regard the market as being expensive and poor value. I have no plans to add to the portfolio at current prices. Nor do I have any plans to sell - I'm quite happy to collect the rent and see the mortgages get paid down each month."

    We did buy two car parking spaces after that, but I just saw more value in the stock market than the property market.

    We'll probably keep what we've got and consider buying again if (when?) prices look more reasonable although the double stamp duty will be a pain if it's still in place.
    AsianXpat0 and bbchris like this.

  10. #30

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    New property sales values dropped by 25% last year.
    How soon would this translate to resale properties soon?

    https://www.scmp.com/business/articl...8000-last-year


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