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Is the peg safe?

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  1. #91

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    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    I see China-HK as fighting through this to be more independent and less reliant on the west. Hk-China sticking up against the west is a great play, there might be some pain to pay in the beginning but I see HK-China surpassing US. HK-China is reasonable and realistic, still bringing in talent and money. US on the other hand is dealing with massive uprooting of its citizens who want to defund the government/police, break up states from the US to go independent, etc. US does NOT have the ability to control its citizens while Trump is saying the shooting starts, govt officials are still unable to get ahold of protests, looting, violence (although it has calmed down due to the time factor). Right now, with 45m Americans unemployed, the govt wants to end unemployment benefits, raise property taxes significantly and raise both local, city, state and federal income/salary taxes. On top of that, there are taxes on dinning out! Lots of other ridiculous stuff.

    US is anti-immigration, blocking immigrants, H1 sponsored employment visas, student visas (who bring cash to universities, housing, cars, food, everything). Forcing immigrants to leave, putting pressure on companies to start up factories here with unaffordable minimum wages, and being forced to hire local "uneducated" talent since hiring of overseas talent is suspended. Even medical personnel were forced to leave the US during covid due to Trumps BS with the visas.

    I doubt US will have much say or presence in the world stage, with exception for its wasteful consumerism culture, which may soon take a hit with higher taxes and less dollars in the pockets of Americans. Right now with covid at its peak, bars and restaurants are open, jam packed with queues outside, very little mask usage. The wealthy stopped spending and are taking money outside of the US due to new taxes coming in play (gift tax, inheritance tax, etc). The results will be displayed over time and we can soon see it, but I'm not optimistic for USA.
    Under Trump, America has declined greatly in moral leadership and soft power, there is no question about that. The man is a racist, a bigot and a liar. But its another thing entirely to say "HK-China" (whatever that means) will be surpassing the US. By what criteria? Technology in the US is still at the leading edge overall. As is Western ideas. And Trump can always be voted out. Can you vote out Stalian? Or Mao? Or Carrie Lam? Voters can vote out incompetent leaders. HKers and Chinese citizens can not. HK for example has been condemned to the misrule of Carrie Lam, under her watch, the city's freedoms are disappearing bit by bit.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 09-07-2020 at 02:42 PM.

  2. #92

  3. #93

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    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    I think HKD would gain in value over the USD. HK govt has cash, US has debt.
    HKs economy is too small for the HKD to be useful for anything other than arbitrage. Without pegging to either the USD or RMB, the HK dollar would become completely unstable. We also have quite a significant trade deficit.
    shri likes this.

  4. #94

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    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    I see China-HK as fighting through this to be more independent and less reliant on the west. Hk-China sticking up against the west is a great play, there might be some pain to pay in the beginning but I see HK-China surpassing US. HK-China is reasonable and realistic, still bringing in talent and money. US on the other hand is dealing with massive uprooting of its citizens who want to defund the government/police, break up states from the US to go independent, etc. US does NOT have the ability to control its citizens while Trump is saying the shooting starts, govt officials are still unable to get ahold of protests, looting, violence (although it has calmed down due to the time factor). Right now, with 45m Americans unemployed, the govt wants to end unemployment benefits, raise property taxes significantly and raise both local, city, state and federal income/salary taxes. On top of that, there are taxes on dinning out! Lots of other ridiculous stuff.

    US is anti-immigration, blocking immigrants, H1 sponsored employment visas, student visas (who bring cash to universities, housing, cars, food, everything). Forcing immigrants to leave, putting pressure on companies to start up factories here with unaffordable minimum wages, and being forced to hire local "uneducated" talent since hiring of overseas talent is suspended. Even medical personnel were forced to leave the US during covid due to Trumps BS with the visas.

    I doubt US will have much say or presence in the world stage, with exception for its wasteful consumerism culture, which may soon take a hit with higher taxes and less dollars in the pockets of Americans. Right now with covid at its peak, bars and restaurants are open, jam packed with queues outside, very little mask usage. The wealthy stopped spending and are taking money outside of the US due to new taxes coming in play (gift tax, inheritance tax, etc). The results will be displayed over time and we can soon see it, but I'm not optimistic for USA.
    Yes, the US is in terrible conditions, while China is doing great. That's why China needs to control the immigration of Americans. There are thousands of Americans who go to China every year to have babies, and get their kids a Chinese passport. There are tens of thousands to Americans who go to study in China, and then try to get a job there, because life is so much better in China. There are thousands of American millionaires who send their kids with their money to China. And then there are all the Chinese companies bought by America, for example in food production, because Chinese food is so much better than American one. I could go on for hours. Basically, America is a basket case. And China is great!

  5. #95

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    Quote Originally Posted by MandM!:
    I see China-HK as fighting through this to be more independent and less reliant on the west. Hk-China sticking up against the west is a great play, there might be some pain to pay in the beginning but I see HK-China surpassing US. ...

    I doubt US will have much say or presence in the world stage, ....
    I don't necessarily agree, but here's something of interest. (A search for Dalio on geo didn't return much, so assume this article hasn't been linked before).


    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-c...ars-ray-dalio/

  6. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by john_1122:
    Yes, the US is in terrible conditions, while China is doing great. That's why China needs to control the immigration of Americans. There are thousands of Americans who go to China every year to have babies, and get their kids a Chinese passport. There are tens of thousands to Americans who go to study in China, and then try to get a job there, because life is so much better in China. There are thousands of American millionaires who send their kids with their money to China. And then there are all the Chinese companies bought by America, for example in food production, because Chinese food is so much better than American one. I could go on for hours. Basically, America is a basket case. And China is great!
    America is riding on a good rep earned many years ago. Keep in mind less than a third of Americans even have a passport. Very close minded individuals. (Note: I am an American)

  7. #97

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    Original Post Deleted
    Good to see you **. How’s everything?

  8. #98

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    Given that it is in the US interests to maintain the USD as the global currency, and the US spends a lot of effort in promoting this effect, I find it unlikely they'll do anything regarding the peg.

    I don't really understand the mechanics of how the US could affect HK's peg unless it went full Iran on HK. But when you set this type of precedent, other countries may start to take notice.

    But never say never.

    TheBrit and shri like this.

  9. #99

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    Any views on when the tide will go out on the hot money that's pushing the upper band at present (guessing when the IPOs have all raced for the door to beat the US regulators)?

    They came so tantalisingly close to draining the aggregate balance earlier in the year that the speculators could have probably had a good go.


  10. #100

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    Shit! Again?

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