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Is the peg safe?

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  1. #61

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    Guess if the peg broke, HKD-denominated share prices would go in the opposite direction to HKD for companies doing most of their business overseas, as the cash of the business would still be worth the same.

    eg. I guess Rusal would look twice as expensive if HKD went to 15 to the USD.

    Like how Nikkei and FTSE indices tend to move in the opposite direction to JPY and GBP

    Kowloon72 likes this.

  2. #62

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    What are people's thoughts on these tweets?

    https://twitter.com/solomonyue/statu...955840?lang=en
    https://twitter.com/SolomonYue/statu...14584893976576

    Not really sure who he is and he probably is a scaremongerer, but he was pretty confident about the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passing last year so he probably has some inside knowledge/murmurings from the Trump circle?


  3. #63

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    No proof, but i hear there is a massive inflow of mainland $ into HK in the form of private equity that previously was held in US (overseas). Similar to this? https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/m...064809478.html


  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by billyb:
    What are people's thoughts on these tweets?

    https://twitter.com/solomonyue/statu...955840?lang=en
    https://twitter.com/SolomonYue/statu...14584893976576

    Not really sure who he is and he probably is a scaremongerer, but he was pretty confident about the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passing last year so he probably has some inside knowledge/murmurings from the Trump circle?
    "Solomon Yue, Jr. is a Chinese American politician and entrepreneur. He is vice chairman and CEO of Republicans Overseas and the national committeeman of the Republican Party of Oregon."

    Side note: if there is/was a shortage of USD notes it was obviously a temporary one as I couldn't find anything to suggest that the situation was on-going. In any case, in a world that is increasingly cashless, people can buy and sell currencies without using cash or going near a bank branch these days.

  5. #65

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    honestly, how much can you trade at the counter of a money changer ?

    1 USD 100 (largest circulation note) = 1g.
    1m USD = 10kg
    1b USD = 10 tonnes...

    so effectively you need 10 tonnes of USD note for 1b..

    yesterday HKMA just swap HKD 2.2b worth of USD into HKD digitally for those guys not keen to keep in USD.. it has happened regularly in the last one month and total amount swapped was around 70b HKD (or 10b USD) higher compared to start of the year..

    very drastically different scale of opposite direction flows.. if i am a decent reporter i wouldn't be writing something and posting it in epoch times as well, pretty much as trustworthy as the global times.


  6. #66

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    "Solomon Yue, Jr. is a Chinese American politician and entrepreneur. He is vice chairman and CEO of Republicans Overseas and the national committeeman of the Republican Party of Oregon."
    And a general all round clown who for some reason HKers and anti-establishment people tend to bend over for.
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  7. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    And a general all round clown who for some reason HKers and anti-establishment people tend to bend over for.
    What makes him a clown?

  8. #68

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    The Dawn of Chaos

    Interesting character - Hugh Hendry - pegs will fall, be long equities & gold.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYCPId1-rW0


  9. #69

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    @ Elefant&Castle Thanks for posting,

    While I did get to the end of it, he lost me right at the beginning with his claim that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. His references to the Volker era were also well off the mark.

    That said, he's made me curious about the Saudi USD peg which is not something I've looked at before.

    https://www.arabianbusiness.com/curr...against-dollar

    shri likes this.

  10. #70

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    pegs fall because FX volatility too high.. which makes sense because it becomes costly for central banks to maintain peg... but the message also doesn't say where it actually fall towards.. since US fed is expanding balance sheet so much, and he is saying buy gold buy equities, then a country that does not expand balance sheet alot will naturally go stronger against USD.. isn't that why the aggregate balance suddenly goes to 150b HKD now against Kyle Bass's guesswork ?


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