I think it’s great you’re trying to learn, and you’re right that this forum is a valuable resource. It simply feels to me that if you are going to go the self-education route, some structure might be helpful.
I think I was careful not to say that it is impossible to gauge market fluctuations (*at least ocassionally). As you have perceived, there may be limitations to doing so reliably, especially when you have actual assets at risk. It is always easier, to look backwards after any particular event, and realise your strategy would have been the correct one, since out of the many people making the assessment at the time, those few that got it right would be the ones feeling that sense of validation now, and thinking how can they capitalise next time.
Not inviting a full-on discussion, but why would you have picked the 2018 lows and not some other benchmark, and what would have been your response if there wasn’t central bank bond-buying and fiscal stimulus? My point here is capable market players can and will have got this and past events wrong, why do you think you would consistently do better?
If you have the interest, then your tactical asset allocation might be repaid in entertainment rather than outperformance. If you don’t, then why create more work while possibly doing worse than necessary? That’s the larger point to think about.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...1463501730117X
Random link, with many others you can use search engines to find in a similar vein.
I wish you good fortune with your financial education.