Market Timing Challenge

[foxwendal]

Many here seem quite confident in their market timing abilities, wanting to switch MPF in and out or proudly buying stocks in March and enjoying 100% gains since... Everything is obvious after the fact but it'd be interesting to track people's predictions in advance to see if they actually play out or instead make for a good laugh later.

Where's SP500, HSBC, Tesla, Bitcoin, HSI, HK property, Gold, etc etc headed? US election impact? Corona crash 2.0 coming? National Security Law impact? etc.

Price target and timeframe please. From all accounts, it would seem a Geoexpat Fund should be trouncing market returns.

I claim zero market insight but for the sake of starting things off, I'll say Tesla hits 2500 USD by year end..

Anyone game?

[shri]

Missed this one.

Six months from today.

S&P - Up
AMZN - Up
HSBC - Up

2800 - Up, pending tech based rebalance

[TheBrit]

Six months? No idea. Don't think anyone should invest on a 6 month time horizon.

Ten years from today
S&P up
HSI up
FTSE-100 up
QQQ up
HSCEI up

[pin]

I know you responded to my thread, with a mention to this. I did see it, but didn't respond because frankly I have no idea which way the market will go.

[DellthinkHK]

One year from now:
SP500 down a bit
HSBC down quite a bit
Tesla similar
Bitcoin unpredictable
HSI down a bit
HK property down a bit
Gold up a lot
AMZN higher

10 years from now:
all of the above up except:
gold much higher
tesla down a lot
bitcoin: close to zero
HSBC: doesn't exist anymore, sold off HSB stake, spinned-off HK/asian operations, other worldwide operations shut down/bankrupt, new entity is called Hong Kong Shanghai Bank with stock code 20 (took it from wheelock) after delisting)
AMZN way higher

[GentleGeorge]

FTSE-100 up

Not a chance

Banks, oil majors and retailers? Goodbye FTSE.

[TheBrit]

Not a chance

Banks, oil majors and retailers? Goodbye FTSE.

Let's come back and see in ten years.

[shri]

@DellthinkHK - Can you do Cathay Pacific too?

[DellthinkHK]

yeah this is fun!

Cathay:
six months: down
12 months: up a bit
2 years: down
10 years: doesnt exist as a listed co (in 2023 Swire sold it at a 100% premium to Air China (i,e, 10$/per share), paid in shares of Air China), Air China shares doing very well in 2030 though.

As a side story, by that time, anticipating a backlash from the yellow HongKongers, and in view of the abnormally high valuations, one year prior to the all shares Cx for Air China deal, Swire Prop sold their admiralty and and HK east complexes for 100billion HK (a record high), and only own prime retail/office space in the Mainland, Singapore mostly and a couple other cities like Jakarta, Bankok, Manilla etc (a bit a la HK Land)

10 years also:
Geoexpat spin-ed off on the GEM. Owner makes a fortune.

[DellthinkHK]

one last one for 2030:
The Comex/London OTC gold markets no longer exist, people realised its BS, silver is at 240$ and gold $6010 (not that it went up, but the $ continued getting crush after AOC became president and decided everyone in America should receive 50k USD a month for free as that way everyone can be rich, not just people who work hard and are creative etc).