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US 1.9T Stimulus - The market maker of 2021.

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  1. #1

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    US 1.9T Stimulus - The market maker of 2021.

    Biden's stimulus plan has been approved in the house.

    What are your thoughts, are there any risks of this getting tied up in the senate?

    If it passes it's surely gonna be a monster year in the markets.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02...ng-the-process


  2. #2

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    Fingers crossed!

    What is the process for passing it in the senate? Is it going to be a straight vote?

  3. #3

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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUKKBN2AC2EO

    Article from about 2 weeks ago.
    I saw somewhere else that supposedly the two economists thought the infrastructure spending bill (about USD 1tn) was more important (as characterised by that particular narrator) and Summers seemed to be of the opinion that it might be slightly jeopardised by passing this USD1.9 tn bill first. Make of it what you will.
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  4. #4

    A trillion here, a trillion there, petty soon you're taking about some serious money.

    One thing's for certain, with all this money basically being printed, money is becoming worth less every day even if relatively little of the increase in money supply is showing up in CPI numbers. (And yes, I know there are other factors involved as well.)

    Historically, devaluing the currency by whatever means has never ended well either for the governments which do it or for their citizens.

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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by AsianXpat0:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUKKBN2AC2EO

    Article from about 2 weeks ago.
    I saw somewhere else that supposedly the two economists thought the infrastructure spending bill (about USD 1tn) was more important (as characterised by that particular narrator) and Summers seemed to be of the opinion that it might be slightly jeopardised by passing this USD1.9 tn bill first. Make of it what you will.
    Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

    P.S. Thanks for posting.
    AsianXpat0 and MABinPengChau like this.

  6. #6

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    As far as I can see, odds are it's gonna pass.

    Surely it would be too much for a Dem to break ranks in the senate on something so central? Kamala Harris will definitely follow Biden's plans assuming she gets the deciding vote.

    Does anyone know when the vote in the senate will be held?

    traineeinvestor likes this.

  7. #7

    Getting on a bit but still a good one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2AvU2cfXRk


  8. #8

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    So if Pelosi won't remove the min wage provision and the bill can't pass with it, what's the process?

    It gets rejected, they renegotiate, Pelosi and the dems back down and it's resubmitted san min wage?

    Or

    The bill can get passed in part, thus the dissenting Dem's vote for it knowing that the min wage component just doesn't get enacted?

    Or

    Pelosi blows it, the bill is shelved, Americans halt the printing presses and your US stock portfolio takes an even bigger kicking than it did this week?

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor:
    Historically, devaluing the currency by whatever means has never ended well either for the governments which do it or for their citizens.
    I'm a bit sensitive to sweeping historical statements at the moment, I'm not sure that this is true

    We can point to hyperinflation in Weimar Germany/Zimbabwe/Venezuela of course as a case in point

    But if you look at say UK Vs France in the 1920s where the UK got back on the gold standard and defended the currency while France took a much more liberal approach to fiscal discipline, it's hard to argue that that decade went better for the UK than France (and most would say it went *significantly* worse)

    I agree that on balance devaluation is dangerous, but I don't think we can say that it is blanket always bad for government and people

  10. #10

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    I am in the growing minority that suspects some economic rules will be rewritten over the next year or two or 10. I also think that the 1.9T has been factored into the current market.

    Weimar and the rest of the inflationary scenarios were different - economies were less global and far fewer financial tools were available.

    TheBrit and hullexile like this.

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