Long Bet: Tesla - Bulls vs Bears

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  1. #1

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    Long Bet: Tesla - Bulls vs Bears

    It's VW, Toyota and Ford etc who will kill Tesla. Car manufacturing is a shitty business at the best of times.


  2. #2

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    The easiest way to do this - bias free and without the Brit v/s George drama is to benchmark the stock price. Both of you have extreme biases and like broken clocks are right 1 or 2 times a day. But I am sure both of you are finance professionals or act like you're in the industry given how professionally and unemotionally you deal with this simple quantifiable problem.

    As of 30th Apri 2022

    VV - EUR 148.94
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VOW3:ETR?noembed

    FORD - USD 14.16
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/F:NYSE?noembed

    Toyota Motors - USD 171.00
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TM:NYSE?noembed

    Tesla: USD 870.76
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote...NASDAQ?noembed

    S&P 500 Auto Sub Index: 88.01
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ES...02010/?noembed

    SPY: $412.00
    https://www.google.com/finance/quote...SEARCA?noembed


    For shits and giggles ... lets come back and look at this at the end of business on every quad witching day. (I've added the next 3 on my calendar)

    June 17.
    September 16.
    December 16.

    Added FUV to my tracker below.. One of those weird EV startups that I have been following.

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    Last edited by shri; 30-04-2022 at 03:18 PM.

  3. #3

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    Split this from another thread (Rivian) to setup a long bet ...

    Tesla vs VW, Toyota, Ford

    Assuming that the stocks listed above have enough volume / analyst & news coverage / liquidity and generally suitable for what we'd call efficient markets. Not as interested in RIVN or FUV ...

    Proposing a few simple rules:

    Time Frame: Whichever condition is met first, either till one of the components listed above goes up 100% or as long as this thread remains visible (i.e. GeoExpat is around) or a max of 8 years - taking us to April 30th, 2030.

    Earlier Termination: One of the four majors goes under, gets bought out by another or any other event which causes the ticker to stop trading. If this happens the winner is the one which has had the best return on price on that day.

    Since we want to avoid biases when one stock may move up or down unusually - let's use price at close of business on the third Fridays of March, June, September and December to call each other names.

    May the best english teacher or in my case stock picking monkey win.


  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Split this from another thread (Rivian) to setup a long bet ...

    Tesla vs VW, Toyota, Ford

    Assuming that the stocks listed above have enough volume / analyst & news coverage / liquidity and generally suitable for what we'd call efficient markets. Not as interested in RIVN or FUV ...

    Proposing a few simple rules:

    Time Frame: Whichever condition is met first, either till one of the components listed above goes up 100% or as long as this thread remains visible (i.e. GeoExpat is around) or a max of 8 years - taking us to April 30th, 2030.

    Earlier Termination: One of the four majors goes under, gets bought out by another or any other event which causes the ticker to stop trading. If this happens the winner is the one which has had the best return on price on that day.

    Since we want to avoid biases when one stock may move up or down unusually - let's use price at close of business on the third Fridays of March, June, September and December to call each other names.

    May the best english teacher or in my case stock picking monkey win.
    Shri, you have created a structured product and a good one. All that is left is to charge a big fee for the punters to play

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeftTC:
    All that is left is to charge a big fee for the punters to play
    I very happily accept biryani, beers or butter chicken in the form of payments / licensing fees.

  6. #6

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    Earlier Termination: One of the four majors goes under, gets bought out by another or any other event which causes the ticker to stop trading. If this happens the winner is the one which has had the best return on price on that day.
    Not 100% convinced with this condition, in extreme market conditions/recession (temporary or otherwise), all of them could go severly down and assuming one could not survive for whatever reason or throw kitchen and sink, our winner will be the one who is least down from the top?? Not exactly look like winner here, volatility in uncertain times could do funny things.. I vote for clear winner in good times only (Now dont ask me to define good times, lets say 10-15% up from last bottom)..

  7. #7

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    You need to set the FX condition as well.. i.e. how to adjust for FX movements in the different currencies.. in their listing currencies or just comparing the HKD equivalent values?


  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit:
    It's VW, Toyota and Ford etc who will kill Tesla. Car manufacturing is a shitty business at the best of times.
    I rather think the Chinese will put a serious dent in the budget segment. For the luxury segment it will be other usual suspects that will fight Tesla, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche (part of VW group though) and a few others smaller players that could grow larger like Volvo/Polestar etc..

  9. #9

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    First chance to dance on graves or wave your dick. Doing both would simply be uncouth...

    Prices at close on Friday.

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