Another Central Banker view. The last paragraph is basically what everyone has been saying about future regulation
Anyway, some interesting and hopefully thought provoking comments from Vlad Putin in this thread. Not a nice man but not a stupid man either.
I don't necessarily subscribe to the author's implied (biased) conclusion, but I will say it is quite amazing how closely macro trends are following the scenarios described by many years ago by hardcore Austrian econ Bitcoiners. BTC on the balance sheet of public companies, pension funds, governments would have been seen as completely absurd by the majority even in 2016 but is now a reality. How certain are you that the trend of increased BTC adoption, increased recognition by nation states and increased tendency to see BTC as a commodity slow? I myself am not confident one way or another but it seems excessively hasty to dismiss the notion out of hand.
Volatility aside, looking long term the 'BTC as a reserve asset' narrative seems to be strengthening rather than weakening. When all currencies are weakening versus the dollar and the dollar is weakening versus commodities... It does pose questions.
I think the attraction of crapto to criminal cunts like Putin is pretty well established. If you want the blood of tens of thousands of innocents on your hands and need to evade sanctions, the currently unregulated crapto landscape is a good way to do it.
Normal, sane people with a moral compass might not think this is a ringing endorsement of crapto.
The bulk of organised criminal hacker activity (with government backing or at least a deliberate blind eye) comes out of Russia, and much of this involves transfers in BTC. The country is in a major economic tiff with much of the Western world.
Anything that Putin says regarding cryptocurrency is going to be utterly self-serving at the very least. And a more cynical view would be that anything he says regarding this would be include some element to deliberately undermine Western systems.
I cannot believe that you posted this up as some kind of evidence for cryptocurrencies. Is this some kind of wind-up?
Edit: This is like an arsonist saying that kerosene should be a bigger part of consumer purchasing, and that it should be sold in convenience stores. And then someone else nodding his head saying "yeah, the guy has interesting and thought provoking points."
Last edited by jgl; 23-06-2022 at 11:11 PM.
I'm not endorsing Putin as a person or Russia as a regime.
I'm saying he has raised very valid (imo) criticisms of monetary policy of American and European central banks, that the appeal of holding dollars (as he explains) is waning for many governments and that (imo) you'd be stupid to completely dismiss the notion that an increasing number of governments will eventually see BTC as commodity / asset worth holding in their reserves.
(For those who didn't bother reading the thread, he didn't even mention bitcoin. I'm saying that I believe his comments in that thread to be largely reasonable, and that if you agree with his sentiments, you'd be pretty blunt to not see BTC as a potential destination for some of the dollars that central banks around the world may soon be dumping. I'm saying I believe the potential upside to be worth speculating on, even if you give 'BTC on the balance sheet of a major CB' a probability as low as 10%).
Let me ask you this - how many governments around the world will have seen the sanctions imposed on Russia (and others), and the central role the dollar and surrounding infrastructure play in executing those sanctions, and then NOT had internal discussions about how they could mitigate against similar risks? How many central banks holding dollars are NOT considering the impact of inflation due to the Americans unilaterally imposing a 40% expansion of USD supply to deal with American domestic issues? I'd argue that they would be in neglect of their duties as stewards of their balance sheet if they were not considering the risk of excess exposure to dollars, given how time and again the Americans have exploited that power to their advantage.
I'm not talking about right or wrongs, or which governments are good or bad. Also not saying the dollar is dead or anything particularly hyperbolic. Just inviting you to put yourself in the shoes of others and to consider potential outcomes of those discussions which are almost certainly happening. We have already seen high profile high profile governments questioning dollar hegemony. Putin's assertions that the world is no long unipolar really are quite unobjectionable if you're paying attention. We have already seen notable interest in BTC from numerous central banks and those who dismiss that trend with 'they are banana republics' are doing just that - missing a glaringly obvious trend.
I really can't see how anyone would object to that.
I'm then speculating that BTC may, just possibly, be a beneficiary. Bitcoin maxis have been pretty much bang on with their adoption predictions so far and I'm not willing to bet 100% against them being correct on eventually nation states adopting rather than fighting BTC. In a fracturing geopolitical climate a neutral monetary asset is increasingly valuable, and there is literally only one such asset (again imo). And it isn't even a morale debate, I'm just positing what I believe to be a possible, credible, if not yet probable outcome.
I would also contend it is rather misleading, given that most recent estimates suggest that criminal activity as a proportion of total volume is significantly lower for BTC than it is for 'fiat'. Which is to be expected, given that you cannot hide any BTC transfer and the dollar payments system is so notoriously opaque and easy to corrupt that it is now barely usable given the amount of KYC/Compliance/Blah Blah Blah barriers in place to try (and objectively fail) to prevent said criminal activity.
Overall your problem in this thread is setting up a strawman argument that people are either pro crypto or alternatively "crypto haters" who say it isn't and will never take off. That is not the case.
I don't hate crypto. I don't care about it. Crypto plays absolutely no role in my life. That is my point, the 'crypto lovers' hype it beyond its current importance. That doesn't mean I am saying the technology will not grow but that it will, as others have said become ever more regulated. And it needs to become ever more regulated so that criminals like Putin can't abuse it.
Last edited by mostexcellent; Yesterday at 10:14 AM.