June 2022 - Stocks, Crypto & Interest Rates

[FrancisX]

Have any of your friends cashed in yet? or tried to cash in? Was these millions in value just paper wealth as nobody would be stupid enough to buy at these peak prices?

I'm curious how these people buying obscure coins can convince someone to buy at clearly ridiculous rates when surely the point for most speculators is to buy cheap?

[shri]

Looks like its all back to normal ..

[GentleGeorge]

Another friend of mine was one of the first LPs in Curve in January 2020. He was a little unsure about smart contract security so was only comfy risking 10k in there, almost as an experiment.

With the profusion of stablecoins in different currencies and experimentation of DEXes with different types of concentrated liquidity, 24-7-365 FX and rates markets with decentralised liquidity provision is not far away, this for me is one of the DeFi "killer apps"

[Gollygordon]

Completely agree. Not sure I'd be encouraging anyone to buy CRV or CVX now though.

[Gollygordon]

Have any of your friends cashed in yet? or tried to cash in? Was these millions in value just paper wealth as nobody would be stupid enough to buy at these peak prices?

I'm curious how these people buying obscure coins can convince someone to buy at clearly ridiculous rates when surely the point for most speculators is to buy cheap?

Yes, everyone I speak to regularly has cashed in significantly (group of 4 or 5 of us).

The guy who locked up his coins till September was only happy to do so as the outcome didn't matter for his day to day life. I don't know of anyone who market dumped the absolute top as that's almost impossible, and hence it is a battle to not get too attached to peak net worth.

I'm sure there are many, many people who never sold anything and are down 70-95% from 6 months ago.

[Gollygordon]

Some I know still holding sizable bags of ETH and BTC tho, with no plans to sell for 5-15 years.

[calmathetic9]

I know this is a tricky question.

But if you had cash on hand, and medium/high risk appetite for said cash on hand, will you buy Bitcoin NOW? I am specifically asking about BTC and not interested in other ones.

would appreciate your thoughts.

[Gollygordon]

I would not sir. Just my opinion.

[Gollygordon]

To elaborate, crypto still directionally tied to US equities and especially growth stocks. Those are dying and in my opinion the drivers of that trend are more likely to escalate than the opposite.

Within crypto, there is massive uncertainty, very little in the way of sustained bids, credit has completely dried up as counterparty risk now explicit and considerable + there is a high likelihood of further forces selling due to contagion from Celcius/3AC and others blowing up.

Maybe we are near the bottom but imo more likely we continue to trend down. Even if it is the bottom, safer to wait until trend has more categorically and clearly reversed and miss a few % of upside than gamble, get it wrong and lose 50%.

Again just my opinion and I could be way off. Historically BTC has given plenty of time to buy around the low. Only exception was post March 2020 and that was because the Fed and other central banks were actively injecting unprecedented liquidity into all financial markets. Exact opposite situation to now.

[shri]

For the crypto skeptics who have conviction..

“BITI affords investors who believe that the price of bitcoin will drop with an opportunity to potentially profit or to hedge their cryptocurrency holdings. BITI enables investors to conveniently obtain short exposure to bitcoin through buying an ETF in a traditional brokerage account.”

CNBC: ProShares is launching a short bitcoin ETF this week.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/pros...this-week.html