Hang Seng Index crystal ball

[Javatar]

So I made the epic mistake of investing in HSI.

About 40% of my overall portfolio is in HSI, the rest is in US trackers (which have done well).

I honestly thought at the time of deciding this asset allocation, “yep HK will reap the benefits of a polarised world, so I'll put my money on the USA train and the HK-Chinese train and not touch it for the remainder of my life”.

Given the way Emperor Xi has farted on his own leading companies, my HSI is now down 18% overall, whereas my US stocks are up around 45% in the same period (about 2 years).

The way that PRC has handled its private companies and economy in the last year was honestly totally unexpected for me. I was pretty sure PRC was headed in the way of SG in terms of opening up to investment and improving overall governance - but what they've done recently plainly shows these guys either don't understand the free market, or... Hmm well I can't think of why else.

Anyway long and short is, I want out. Any oracles or fortune tellers here willing to guess when HSI might improve somewhat so I can diversify out of HK stocks and HKD?

[shri]

Anyway long and short is, I want out. Any oracles or fortune tellers here willing to guess when HSI might improve somewhat so I can diversify out of HK stocks and HKD?

Or cut your losses and diversify out of HK gradually (5-10% every month) without anchoring on the losses?

(For the record, I'm very bearish on HSI / China. Have been since 2019 and will continue to remain bearish for the near term - 2-3 years. When it recovers, it recovers...)

[Cheeky Kiwi]

but what they've done recently plainly shows these guys either don't understand the free market, or... Hmm well I can't think of why else.

No, it shows you don't understand China and the Chinese

[Javatar]

Or cut your losses and diversify out of HK gradually (5-10% every month) without anchoring on the losses?

Thanks. Yes I should consider something like this. I had also considered a 'stepped' selling based on how much it recovers (i.e. sell a portion for every 2% it goes up or something), but it may be best just to cut losses and move on.

[Javatar]

No, it shows you don't understand China and the Chinese

Fair enough. I don't think I understand the CCP or Mainland Chinese. But I am actually by blood and culture, Chinese.

[shri]

Or .. consider dollar cost averaging your way out ... x% of your HK assets -> diversified assets every month, regardless of the gains or losses - randomness evens it out I think if you're moving to a better asset.

Keep in mind - I am bearish on HK stocks and there are wiser people than me who remain bullish.