Looking for evidence that housing market in HK will stay flat or go down

[hk.main]

Please share any news, research, statistics, etc., that indicate Hong Kong's residential property market will either remain relatively flat or decrease. Thanks!

[ByeByeEngland]

This could be one of the shortest threads ever

[ndt]

Rub your hands on this 3 times..

[RobRoy]

I think this is just a story pulled between two forces:

1. The local situation, elderly population, youngsters leaving through BNO etc, all speaks for flat/falling prices
2. The attractiveness for well educated/rich Mainlanders to come here and live, which all speaks for increasing prices.

Just pick which force will be stronger and you have your case. Sprinkle in interest rates, geopolitics etc which can create some volatility but probably not a new trend.

[pin]

It will do one of these things.

- go up
- go down
- stay flat

[Plutark]

You also want my advice on stock investment? I charge 3k per hour

[aw451]

Personal opinion:
Stay flat, go up then crash

This is purely based on the following factors:
- government predicts the population will go into permanent decline
- the market will be flooded with properties as part of the Lantau Tomorrow and Northern Metropolis projects

Supply is only going to increase over the long term but the population will not. I predict that certain areas of HK will follow a different trend depending on what the GBA brings and whether the hard border drops in 2047

[TheDevil_666]

I myself am looking to sell at this point. I dont think prices are going to go up significantly more than 15-20% over the next 5 year horizon. HK unfortunately appears to be in an irreversible state of decline. The other spanner in the works could be the removal of the USD peg which can effectively reduce property prices by 40% from pre-2019 prices before NSL. My general rule of thumb is that property prices between HK and Shenzhen should be around 25% difference to reflect realistic market value.

[mpbk]

This could be one of the shortest threads ever

Or the longest. LOL

[mpbk]

The other spanner in the works could be the removal of the USD peg which can effectively reduce property prices by 40% from pre-2019 prices before NSL.

Please elaborate why the removal of the USD peg will reduce property prices.