Any stocks in your investment portfolio ?

satchi123 · 24-12-2008, 11:41 PM

Hi, I would like to do a poll on whether (and how much) you have allocated a portion of your networth to stocks. The format doesn't matter, i.e. whether you're holding individual stocks or are invested via stock mutual funds, ETFs, closed end funds, etc. The kind of stocks also doesn't matter, i.e. regardless of whether you're holding HK stocks, US stocks, etc.

Please also visit my other thread which is a poll on gold/silver investments.

Thanks.

@1978 · 25-12-2008, 01:17 PM

i have full of negative equity on hand

stayhomeguy · 27-12-2008, 11:00 PM

ask Warren Buffett dude

=XTR=M= · 29-12-2008, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by satchi123:

Hi, I would like to do a poll on whether (and how much) you have allocated a portion of your networth to stocks. The format doesn't matter, i.e. whether you're holding individual stocks or are invested via stock mutual funds, ETFs, closed end funds, etc. The kind of stocks also doesn't matter, i.e. regardless of whether you're holding HK stocks, US stocks, etc.

Please also visit my other thread which is a poll on gold/silver investments.

Thanks.

Hi, mind telling me what is the purpose of surveying this poll? Which of the category are you in. What do you see the current situation for the stocks now, ie. Hang Seng?

satchi123 · 29-12-2008, 09:35 PM

Originally Posted by =XTR=M=:

Hi, mind telling me what is the purpose of surveying this poll? Which of the category are you in. What do you see the current situation for the stocks now, ie. Hang Seng?

I have been investing in gold since 2005 when it was trading at around $450~500 an ounce. Made money in some transactions and lost in others but overall it's been positive on a net basis. I recently had a discussion with friends and some of them thought that since gold had gone from the bottom of around $250 (early part of this decade) to over $1000 a few months ago, then it must mean that it is a bubble because it's already gone up 4x.

My conjecture is that it cannot be a bubble unless a good number of people have already invested in it. When I asked my friends whether they have invested in gold (we had a small group of about half a dozen at the time), all replied no. On the other hand, all of us had at least some exposure to equities (be it directly in stocks or via funds/ETFs etc.). Therefore, it doesn't seem like gold's in a bubble. Having said that, I recognize the sample was too small and so I hope to be able to get a much wider audience through this forum.

Thanks for your response and interest.

satchi123 · 29-12-2008, 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by =XTR=M=:

Hi, mind telling me what is the purpose of surveying this poll? Which of the category are you in. What do you see the current situation for the stocks now, ie. Hang Seng?

Sorry I forgot the other questions.

I'm currently in the <25% in gold/silver category. But I'm also roughly 65% in cash so that actually made gold/silver my biggest bet and it will likely continue to be my biggest bet given what's happening around the world.

My current thinking for the Hang Seng (or HK stocks in general) is that we might have already seen the bottom at 10xxx. Having said that, the 40%+ jump from that low in such a short period of time feels like short covering (do remember that throughout this dark period of time, unlike other regulators from the US to Korea, the HK SFC didn't impose additional rules on short selling so one may assume there was plenty of short selling to begin with, and subsequently the unwinding of those short positions). I also believe that as far as the economy is concerned, the worst has yet to come and it means that we haven't yet seen the worst of earnings announcements. I would like to see another wave of poor earnings announcements in 1Q09 that will drive the HSI down a notch to retest the bottom. If that happens, I may consider re-deploying my cash into to the local stock market.

=XTR=M= · 03-02-2009, 07:06 PM

yeah...you could be right that gold is not that much in a bubble fad like oil or property. but with the current global recession affecting the demand for gold, the price may reach its current limit.

It is at quite a high level considering the bleak market situation now.
If gold retreats further below $900 level... we may see equities bottoming for the short term. From previous observation, everytime gold peaked, equities formed a short term bottom and then vice versa.. used to be...

=XTR=M= · 03-02-2009, 07:26 PM

Originally Posted by satchi123:

Sorry I forgot the other questions.

I'm currently in the <25% in gold/silver category. But I'm also roughly 65% in cash so that actually made gold/silver my biggest bet and it will likely continue to be my biggest bet given what's happening around the world.

My current thinking for the Hang Seng (or HK stocks in general) is that we might have already seen the bottom at 10xxx. Having said that, the 40%+ jump from that low in such a short period of time feels like short covering (do remember that throughout this dark period of time, unlike other regulators from the US to Korea, the HK SFC didn't impose additional rules on short selling so one may assume there was plenty of short selling to begin with, and subsequently the unwinding of those short positions). I also believe that as far as the economy is concerned, the worst has yet to come and it means that we haven't yet seen the worst of earnings announcements. I would like to see another wave of poor earnings announcements in 1Q09 that will drive the HSI down a notch to retest the bottom. If that happens, I may consider re-deploying my cash into to the local stock market.

It is good that you have only 25% of your portfolio under gold. I wouldn;t be that optimistic about the high potential upside of gold in the short run. In fact, i would have convert that 10% into cash and/or turn into other commodities like corn, or steel that are much battered from this downturn. Your idea of jumping into the market during the 2nd Q with your 65% reserves sounds sensible. It is not that far away from the last bottom 10,xxx we've seen in last Oct. so it's not that hard to break this point. Question is, will HSBC keep plunging deeper along with other financial blue chips like Std Chartered, Hang Seng, CK, SHK, Whampoa, Swire, etc. in the next 2 months? Wait and see...

DaChief · 06-08-2009, 04:35 PM

Funny to see how gold became popular again lately due to the global recession. However, take a good look at gold prices over a long term and you'll see that gold is neither a good inflation hedge nor a profitable investment (excluding those few who bought at bottom)