Originally Posted by civil_servant:
So let's ignore society who clearly was in favour of protecting the harbor.
While port calls between TST and Kai Tak were similar, the latter has a much higher passenger throughput due to larger ships being berthed in Kai Tak. While port calls for 2016 at 191 were 5% below the lower estimate, passenger traffic was 25% above that. That means that the lower estimate called for around 201 port calls in 2016. For 2017, I count 216 port calls alone. If one looks at the estimates for 2023....
http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr08-09/engl...b1-212-1-e.pdf
...it becomes quite obvious that the passenger numbers for 2023 aren't much higher than the estimated passenger numbers for 2016. Since we already are 25% above the lower bound for passenger numbers, and considering that there will be large increase of port calls in Kai Tak, I guess since Genting Dream made it their home port last year, it should be perfectly feasible that the Kai Tak cruise terminal will reach or even surpass the upper estimate of passenger numbers by 2023. Hence, the only thing that's of issue is...
a) spending per passenger
As mentioned, the crackdown on lavish spending by the CPC is definitely having an impact, but we can be optimistic that as transportation links improve and giving passengers a better access to a wider range of services that this spending should improve.
b) underutilized shopping facilities
They will fill as Kai Tak development fills an improved transportation links are formed
As to the analysis of Tom Holland, one can see some serious number fudging there. First, one can question his 45c estimate of every $1 going into the economy. Next, his 1.3 multiplier, conveniently taken from Hawaii should also be questioned. Barcelona, which is also a city estimates a multiplier of around 1.8. And in the end, he messes up by dividing the numbers of passengers by 2 based on the number of port calls while the actual passenger throughput was almost twice as much in Kai Tak as in TST. And , to top it all off, the Hong Kong estimate in 2008, see link above, was for the entire cruise industry of Hong Kong. Taking this into account, 1.8 billion translates into....
Based on the Hawaii multiplier.
$1.8 * 45c * 1.3 = $1.05 Billion
Based on the Barcelona multiplier.
$1.8 * 45c * 1.8 = $1.46 Billion, which hits the low growth estimate.