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Hong Kong - the land of White Elephants - Cruise Terminal

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  1. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    5% below lower estimates. Not bad considering...

    a) restriction of ISV expansion post-Occupy
    b) crackdown on lavish spending by CPC
    c) delay in highspeed rail completion

    The retail and transportation links are meaningless considering the current temporary state of Kai Tak being under construction.
    Oh dear.

    You have chosen not to refer to the last article from an economic journalist that slams the expenditure as wasteful but a previous article from the papers pro-government editorial team that try their best to make a positive spin.

    Also only you have highlighted a single problem and suggested it isn't that bad. The 5% below worst case forecast of passenger numbers ignores the forced transfer of visitor from TST to KaiTak artificially boosting the numbers at the new location while reducing the potential at the old place, visitor spending was around 50% below estimates etc

    Taking a more holistic view makes this white elephant seem very big indeed.

    It was mooted that an extension of LCX for about 1/10th of the cost would of been a better option. This was rejected by the internal departments in the government as it would require filling in the harbour and would need extra scrutiny by LegCo.

    As it was a gargantuan terminal was built using mainly imported pre-fabs and concrete that benefitedd the construction industry to the cost of society as a whole.

  2. #52

    So let's ignore society who clearly was in favour of protecting the harbor.

    While port calls between TST and Kai Tak were similar, the latter has a much higher passenger throughput due to larger ships being berthed in Kai Tak. While port calls for 2016 at 191 were 5% below the lower estimate, passenger traffic was 25% above that. That means that the lower estimate called for around 201 port calls in 2016. For 2017, I count 216 port calls alone. If one looks at the estimates for 2023....

    http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr08-09/engl...b1-212-1-e.pdf

    ...it becomes quite obvious that the passenger numbers for 2023 aren't much higher than the estimated passenger numbers for 2016. Since we already are 25% above the lower bound for passenger numbers, and considering that there will be large increase of port calls in Kai Tak, I guess since Genting Dream made it their home port last year, it should be perfectly feasible that the Kai Tak cruise terminal will reach or even surpass the upper estimate of passenger numbers by 2023. Hence, the only thing that's of issue is...

    a) spending per passenger

    As mentioned, the crackdown on lavish spending by the CPC is definitely having an impact, but we can be optimistic that as transportation links improve and giving passengers a better access to a wider range of services that this spending should improve.

    b) underutilized shopping facilities

    They will fill as Kai Tak development fills an improved transportation links are formed



    As to the analysis of Tom Holland, one can see some serious number fudging there. First, one can question his 45c estimate of every $1 going into the economy. Next, his 1.3 multiplier, conveniently taken from Hawaii should also be questioned. Barcelona, which is also a city estimates a multiplier of around 1.8. And in the end, he messes up by dividing the numbers of passengers by 2 based on the number of port calls while the actual passenger throughput was almost twice as much in Kai Tak as in TST. And , to top it all off, the Hong Kong estimate in 2008, see link above, was for the entire cruise industry of Hong Kong. Taking this into account, 1.8 billion translates into....

    Based on the Hawaii multiplier.

    $1.8 * 45c * 1.3 = $1.05 Billion

    Based on the Barcelona multiplier.

    $1.8 * 45c * 1.8 = $1.46 Billion, which hits the low growth estimate.

    Last edited by civil_servant; 02-05-2017 at 10:01 PM.

  3. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    So let's ignore society who clearly was in favour of protecting the harbor.

    While port calls between TST and Kai Tak were similar, the latter has a much higher passenger throughput due to larger ships being berthed in Kai Tak. While port calls for 2016 at 191 were 5% below the lower estimate, passenger traffic was 25% above that. That means that the lower estimate called for around 201 port calls in 2016. For 2017, I count 216 port calls alone. If one looks at the estimates for 2023....

    http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr08-09/engl...b1-212-1-e.pdf

    ...it becomes quite obvious that the passenger numbers for 2023 aren't much higher than the estimated passenger numbers for 2016. Since we already are 25% above the lower bound for passenger numbers, and considering that there will be large increase of port calls in Kai Tak, I guess since Genting Dream made it their home port last year, it should be perfectly feasible that the Kai Tak cruise terminal will reach or even surpass the upper estimate of passenger numbers by 2023. Hence, the only thing that's of issue is...

    a) spending per passenger

    As mentioned, the crackdown on lavish spending by the CPC is definitely having an impact, but we can be optimistic that as transportation links improve and giving passengers a better access to a wider range of services that this spending should improve.

    b) underutilized shopping facilities

    They will fill as Kai Tak development fills an improved transportation links are formed



    As to the analysis of Tom Holland, one can see some serious number fudging there. First, one can question his 45c estimate of every $1 going into the economy. Next, his 1.3 multiplier, conveniently taken from Hawaii should also be questioned. Barcelona, which is also a city estimates a multiplier of around 1.8. And in the end, he messes up by dividing the numbers of passengers by 2 based on the number of port calls while the actual passenger throughput was almost twice as much in Kai Tak as in TST. And , to top it all off, the Hong Kong estimate in 2008, see link above, was for the entire cruise industry of Hong Kong. Taking this into account, 1.8 billion translates into....

    Based on the Hawaii multiplier.

    $1.8 * 45c * 1.3 = $1.05 Billion

    Based on the Barcelona multiplier.

    $1.8 * 45c * 1.8 = $1.46 Billion, which hits the low growth estimate.
    Thank you for the detailed analysis

    Some questions

    Spending per average passenger vs government forecasts?
    Where have Genting made their home port?
    Reclamation for purposes like more roads and the PLA are not popular, saving money an giving a better tourist experience?

  4. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Spending per average passenger vs government forecasts?
    Clearly addressed that.

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Where have Genting made their home port?
    Hong Kong, and starting December 2017, Singapore.

    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Reclamation for purposes like more roads and the PLA are not popular, saving money an giving a better tourist experience?
    Now you're just simply twisting stuff to get support for your idea. I prefer evidence. Any surveys?

    It's just what TST needs, expansion for massive cruise ships and being the terminal point for the high speed rail. It's not like there's already enough traffic in the area. When I think of Harbour City, sardines and walking at snails pace comes to mind. Is that your idea of a great city planning?

  5. #55

    I do have to agree that as congested as the urban areas are, most of HK is green space. But why do I get the feeling that I am suffocating amidst all the concrete high-rises? because most of the parks are inaccessible? not open to the public?

    BTW, are there any requirements for environmental impact studies before any of the lands are developed?

    "Huh? what, what, what impact studies...?" gasped the developer......


  6. #56

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    Hong Kong, and starting December 2017, Singapore.
    https://www.trbusiness.com/regional-...omeport/104273

  7. #57
    Are we talking Genting Dream or SuperStar Virgo? Two different ships.

  8. #58
    Original Post Deleted
    Get your facts straight. Then we can talk.

  9. #59

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    Why not just send all the Star Ferries there? bringing tourists out, bringing locals in.


  10. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by novitaconnect:
    I do have to agree that as congested as the urban areas are, most of HK is green space. But why do I get the feeling that I am suffocating amidst all the concrete high-rises? because most of the parks are inaccessible? not open to the public?

    BTW, are there any requirements for environmental impact studies before any of the lands are developed?

    "Huh? what, what, what impact studies...?" gasped the developer......
    Most of HK's green space is inaccessible jungle.

    Environmental impact studies are performed carefully and meticulously in all of China,including HK.

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