PDLM> Indeed you'd have to wonder whether the Boks can do it, despite having never won in Dunedin since the 1920s. Decisions, decisions...
The ref? Yes, now that's always of interest when NZ are playing. The ref this weekend is from France, Joel Jutge, who also reffed the Lions-NZ first test in the summer. Prima facie this will favour the Boks as their rush defence and bruising tackles are closer to the more physical NH rugby with which Jutge has association. NH refs also tend not to like the NZ, *cough*, gamesmanship and will be minded to ping them for that, but only when it is possible within his stats allowance of penalties.
When Jutge reffed the Lions-NZ match earlier this summer, the penalty count was 8 to the Lions and 10 to NZ, and for the whole Lions tour the penalty count was 55% against the NZ sides. In my view this was a deal behind the scenes brokered between the IRB, NZL and the Lions, based on historical problems with reffing in NZ. However NZL will expect some payback for this compromise. Jutge will therefore be under some pressure, behind the scenes of course, to even matters out. I think, therefore, the ref effect will be at best a very slim help to the Boks and there will be prominent decisions in favour of the ABs.
As to putting money on a draw? You're a braver man than me! If memory serves there has been one draw only in the history of the 3N and international rugby rarely sees draws anyway.