Market crash

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  1. #51

    So what happened to the prediction of a big market crash many posters were talking about ...? last week there was scaremongering and panic among some on this thread while the Hang Seng dropped to 3-months lows and now within a couple of days all losses are recovered and no one talks about it anymore here and instead we're sidetracked on US-China politics. Interesting discussion though but the absence of commentary about the rebound of the markets also says something ...


  2. #52

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    the driving factor is people who are more economically trained are bearish. hk newbie has been calling for bear for a year or so. its not going to happen immediately but personally i think its time for a heafty correction in world equity market as well.


  3. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by texasaxel:
    So what happened to the prediction of a big market crash many posters were talking about ...? last week there was scaremongering and panic among some on this thread while the Hang Seng dropped to 3-months lows and now within a couple of days all losses are recovered and no one talks about it anymore here and instead we're sidetracked on US-China politics. Interesting discussion though but the absence of commentary about the rebound of the markets also says something ...
    Bear market is here now in the US. According the Dow Theory, the granddaddy of all technical analysis, you have a primary downtrend if the each high is lower than the preceding, and if each low is lower than the preceding. You need 5 waves to establish that. The last rebound was the 4th wave. Unless the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks above 13,500, it is in a downtrend.

    This is confirmed by the S&P 500 which is actually a better index of the overall market than the Dow, -- but it shows exactly the same pattern.

    The hang seng has not confirmed a bear market pattern yet, but it has not renewed a bull pattern either. It must break its previous high.

    Freier - there was a lot more to HK Newbie's argument than that.

  4. #54

    Nah…I have no interest in the madness of artificial borders, boundaries, nationalities etc that segregate people that leads to conflict. As Richard Dawkins said, people are no more born Communists or Capitalists as they are Muslim or Christians. So by extension, all classifications of humans are arbitrary and false, and this ties in with what someone like the Buddha said. By attaching to some identity, we are forced to blindly defend it at all costs, promote its interests above others, which results in the powerful becoming more so to the detriment of others. Since no one group possesses the truth and all vie for top spot, conflict is inevitable. Little off tangent but what I’m trying to say is that I have no vested interests in any one group of people and their outcome, not even what you might call “my own”. Everyone is just the same and deserves the same chance in life. It reduces me be being a casual observer of what goes on around me. If I think the US is going down the drain, it’s because I think that, right or wrong…with little or no judgement about it. Whatever you think I'm saying has no relevance to what I'm actually saying. It’s not scaremongering or vitriolic or doom and gloom. I’m giving you facts and figures. It’s happening right now if you piece together what’s happening.

    Actually, I love the US. I just think that most people have no idea about the financial tsunami that is about to hit it (and many other countries).


  5. #55

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    I rest my case.

    My reponses at various points in this thread were: "this is not a crash" Look at the fundamentals...always.

    Today was a great day for the HSI and we are back to pretty much where were before the fall-out started two weeks.

    Of course, the sub-prime problems will keep going for a while and that is not a bad thing - pretty healthy clean-out of the financial system.

    The markets will continue to remain choppy and the volatility will be there for a while until the sub-prime issues have cleaned out of the system.

    A crash waiting to happen....in the World's biggest Casino.....Chinese Stock Markets.


  6. #56
    http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/p...9/REG/70829009

    Hehe! Mystery disappearance after abruptly resigning from some fancy derivatives department (while still being a director of another company), with no one being able to contact him? At the same time Barclays borrows £1.6 billion from the Bank of England’s emergency lending facility twice in as many weeks, which is highly irregular behaviour and has caused raised eyebrows in the financial community. Sounds well dodgy. I’ll be dammed if this is not another Nick Leeson. Would make for some very interesting headlines.

    The lesson seems to be: due to the complex interconnectedness and size of the global derivatives market, and how murky and little scrutinised this mostly over the counter business is, top tier institutions all over seem to be exposed in ways that are far from being known and the potential losses could be completely mind blowing, of proportions that could make Barings losses look like pocket change.

    Better get your gold before it shoots to the moon.

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