[Poll] Stay or Leave Hong Kong

[periphery831]

If I was single, I'd be more than happy to stay in HK for the rest of my life. My wife and kids are paramount now and despite both of us having comfortable jobs here, we want our kids to go to school in the UK. We're looking at around five years later just before my first kid gets into secondary school.

[AsianXpat0]

On another thread, some concern on the Chinese-language social media that a Wuhan- style lockdown will happen when they decide they want to test the entire territory...so my business partner is freaked out- I was scheduled to leave for Taipei on the 19th, now moving it to the 3rd...sigh.

I am not that paranoid but, whatever, now, two weeks from now...leaving my flat with my cats who have to wait 180 days so throw some clothes in a suitcase and go...

https://twitter.com/stuartlau...76957275693058

Safe travels, and hope your relocation goes smoothly.

[mucaari]

https://twitter.com/stuartlau...76957275693058

Safe travels, and hope your relocation goes smoothly.

Will they put me into jail if I resist?

[Gatts]

There aren’t really any reasons to leave if you are young and single and career focused. HK is one of the most convenient and rewarding place to live in the world right now. Recent events have not changed things and companies don’t plan to outsource anything in the medium term (if they do it will be Shanghai for most so there is no realistic pull out of China scenario no matter what you hear in the news).

With the recent barrage of news of companies intending to leave Hong Kong, I'm not so sure about that. Also, alternatives for HK will never be Shanghai as most companies come here for the rule of law, free environment and tax breaks anyway, none of these can be found in current era Shanghai.

[Pauljoecoe]

I left 11th January, 6 months to the day before you . Started planning even before last years extradition protests. Yes I think we timed it nicely, but if its a competition then I think I win, at least with kids anyway since my kids have been able to physically attend school largely undisturbed this whole year here in Perth, vs an almost complete write off at their old international school in HK.

No, not a competition, but if it was I win as we have just retired! Completely flexible on when to return to UK. Just enjoying travel, freedom and no responsibilities at the moment!

[TheRoadAhead]

With the recent barrage of news of companies intending to leave Hong Kong, I'm not so sure about that. Also, alternatives for HK will never be Shanghai as most companies come here for the rule of law, free environment and tax breaks anyway, none of these can be found in current era Shanghai.

A lot of them are here for the access to the CN market so where will they go if not Shanghai? Well they will surely stay here.

When it comes to SEA Singapore is already maxed out and companies don’t want to move there because of the current situation as well. Capital cities of SEA countries such as Bangkok, Jakarta etc will benefit in the long run as countries stay in the development phase.

[Gatts]

A lot of them are here for the access to the CN market so where will they go if not Shanghai? Well they will surely stay here.

When it comes to SEA Singapore is already maxed out and companies don’t want to move there because of the current situation as well. Capital cities of SEA countries such as Bangkok, Jakarta etc will benefit in the long run as countries stay in the development phase.

Most companies that are interested in the Chinese market already have an office there anyway, the majority of activities in HK are here for the free flow of finance, information, tax situation and rule of law. Again, none of which Shanghai or another mainland city could offer.

[Aramis]

China is not invincible and is experiencing pushback from many countries. I don't see why HK would be spared.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...03b_story.html

[Coolboy]

A lot of them are here for the access to the CN market so where will they go if not Shanghai? Well they will surely stay here.

When it comes to SEA Singapore is already maxed out and companies don’t want to move there because of the current situation as well. Capital cities of SEA countries such as Bangkok, Jakarta etc will benefit in the long run as countries stay in the development phase.

Only if HK's advantages remain. That is increasingly being questioned. The NSL in one swoop has rendered all the protections and freedoms offered by the Basic Law in doubt. And with rising US-China tension and HK caught in the middle, the city is not going to be left unscathed. Some business say US and the West won't dare to hurt their own commercial interest in the city to pushback against Beijing.

I am somewhat less sanguine about that outlook. If relations between Beijing and Washington continue to worsen, then all bets are off. Trump backed out of a plan to undermine the HK dollar peg, knowing that is going to be ineffective, but that doesn't mean there aren't other measures that can adversely target HK in the future, whether it is coming from Beijing or Washington. None of that is going to make businesses feel so safe in HK, because such future uncertainities undermine their confidence in the city.

After all, a year ago, nobody anticipated the NSL would arrive and be implemented so suddenly. Nobody saw the Covid pandemic exploding around the world. So how can we be so confident now that this is the worse it will get for HK?

[mucaari]

What's worrying is not just the existence of the NSL. Some people said it's only there as a warning and to deter people. That might be true, but the police almost randomly posts search notices for American citizens living in the US for violating the NSL. What is the point of this except pissing off the US?
Also, the recent rumors about a Corona/DNA screening of the entire HK population. I think especially many expats here would not be very pleased if this is happening. Same thing with the "mainland help", medics sent over and so on. The government has gone into overdrive. This has nothing to do with national security anymore. The only reason for politics to make all this noise now is either just to show their loyalty to Beijing or they actually believe that this kind of stuff works as propaganda to HK's society.

My hope for HK is: This political shitshow ends soon enough as the dust settles, and while the NSL is here to stay, public institutions and the society as a hole can then continue to exist at a much better functioning level than they do on the mainland. This means they talk of HK as part of China, but effectively internal governance is still at an acceptable level for international corporations and their employees. If they don't, and people in HK will be increasingly subject to random draconian measures, then I can only see international companies scale back a lot, which means it would be time for many of us to say goodbye.