Working mothers with kids under 10 aren’t better off in North America or Europe unless they have grandparents for free childcare. Especially now with Covid - my friends with kids are dying with school closures and work to juggle.
Some families going to the U.K. have found it difficult to register their kids with the LEA’s. Some have been unable to provide a permanent home address.
I know of several cases, whereby families have had to pay high rents, with short term rentals due to their current BNO status.
They can rent long term once the new BNO visas start in Jan 2021
Yes, yes, yes - figures are horrendous I know.
But...if you have the ability to choose your life style, pick when and where you go then life's pretty good. I'm very much enjoying being back. Glad I'm not still stuck in HK. Missing the winter Hong Kong weather though!! Planning a getaway to Barbados for a bit of sun soon though.
But no, other than if you are very wealthy, I wouldn't choose to return a family with children quite at the moment.
There clearly isn't a single big trigger that will cause and exodus but the gradual increase in expats leaving, decrease in expats arriving a more importantly middle class and upper middle class Mainlanders by-passing HK altogether when leaving China will continue the dimming of Hong Kong but at a more advanced pace.