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Hong Kong Reform Protests - 14/06

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  1. #91

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    Didnt even know there was a protest until I saw this thread.

    I really think there is indeed a fatigue and resignation here....the package will pass anyway so why bother (I guess this is now the main line of thinking)


  2. #92

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    Quote Originally Posted by HK_Katherine:
    So if the package is voted down...what then? The risk surely is that then we get NO rights to vote...???
    Actually going by the basic law the government would be required to come up with a new proposal. What probably will happen is that Beijing will put in efforts to try to change voter constituency to make it even harder and more expensive for democratic parties to be well represented all over HK, if they can get a decent enough majority they put in the reform proposal again, and voila.

  3. #93

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mat:
    I really think there is indeed a fatigue and resignation here....the package will pass anyway so why bother (I guess this is now the main line of thinking)
    Not pass you mean?

    As I said reason for the lower turnout is surely because of the fact that the reform will be vetoed, so no direct reason coming out on the streets.

  4. #94

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    Hongkongers can learn quickly if it's for their benefit. Peaceful protests didn't yield anything is the lesson learnt. A group of freedom fighters have been arrested yesterday for building TASP bombs.


  5. #95

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azuremain:
    building TASP bombs.
    Planning to build.

  6. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by emx:
    Planning to build.
    Not the SCMP version I read. It even said the police set off a controlled detonation of the bombs on site.

  7. #97
    David Smith
    Quote Originally Posted by HK_Katherine:
    So if the package is voted down...what then? The risk surely is that then we get NO rights to vote...???
    Absent any unexpected surprises the package is dead. The interesting question is what happens next. There are a lot of unknowns. We will never know whether Carrie, Raymond and Starry negotiated hard with Beijing to win concessions. We will never know what would have happened if the package passed - would it have been relaxed gradually, or simply have been a sham to legitimize an authoritarian CE taking direction from the Liaison Office?

    If anything the future is less clear, but my predictions are:-

    -Wang Guangya, Li Fei and CY will likely lose their jobs. Despite the public bluster, the CCP cannot have been happy with the way things have turned out.

    -The 2017 CE election will be under the old system. Likely runners are CY, Regina Ip (both unacceptable to the HK public) and Anthony Leung. Of those, Anthony is the likely winner. Similar, I think, to the choice of candidates and end result under the proposed reform package.

    -Between now and 2017, a big problem for the Chinese government, and by extension Tung's 'Our HK' think tank, is to come up with a better candidate. So far Anthony has failed to attract much interest from the public. He is, after all, a failed public official who was previously disgraced and had to resign due to corruption.

    - I expect politics will get more polarized. Many of the moderates such as Ronny Tong, James Tien and Jasper Tsang are due to resign. When the heads of even major pro-BJ grass roots parties, such as Chan Yuen-han, resign because they admit they are powerless to influence policy, something is wrong.

    -The media will continue to devote acres of coverage to tiny groups of 30 pro-government, or 40-100 radical localist protesters, to make HK seem far more polarized than it actually is.

    -We will hear a lot about the government focusing on livelihood issues, but big changes are unlikely, because the government has to repay the tycoons and business chambers for their loyal support over political reform. Instead, we will hear that progress is being obstructed by the democrats, but in reality that will be an illusion deliberately created by the government.

    As Gatts points out, constituencies are being reformed and quite possibly gerrymandered. If the pro-government parties can win 2/3 of the seats in 2016, then the reform package will likely be re-tabled and passed with lightning speed. Will the democrats splinter and fade, or re-surge? There a few milestones on the way:-

    -1st July march
    -District Council elections late this year
    -Legco Elections 2016

    If democrat support drops markedly in any of these, then the pro-BJ forces will take this as a sign they have won and should press on. Expect A.23 to be tabled in short order. If pan-dems actually increase seats in 2016, that might prompt the government to change tack and govern in a more inclusive way. It might also push more political reform, not soon, but in 2020.

    Even with best intentions, the new CE in 2017 is likely to be disastrous and will be greeted with protests from the outset, just for having been 'elected'.
    Last edited by David Smith; 17-06-2015 at 10:59 PM.
    R.O., Cho-man, bookblogger and 1 others like this.

  8. #98

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    Last edited by HK_Katherine; 18-06-2015 at 01:38 PM.

  9. #99

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azuremain:
    Hongkongers can learn quickly if it's for their benefit. Peaceful protests didn't yield anything is the lesson learnt. A group of freedom fighters have been arrested yesterday for building TASP bombs.
    Freedom fighters to some, terrorists for others...

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