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The solution to Hong Kong's protests?

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  1. #21

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    Again, rent control has been around in some cities for many decades. There are a zillion economic and social studies on it out there. It has been shown to have had really, really weird and unpleasant effects on the housing markets. IMO rent control can be a good thing for some individuals who rent, but is overall bad for a housing market and society.

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  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    1 person household income has increased from $13,000 in 2001 to $18,000 in 2019. About 1.8% annually.
    4 Person households have doubled from $21,000 to $42,800 over the same time. I'm guessing more children are staying with their parents longer because of high property prices, which adds another income earner to a household in the statistics.
    I've just looked back in this thread and realise that I haven't been able to figure out where civil_servant got his figures from in the first place.

    But also, and more importantly, did he selectively disregard income figures for 1 person households which show the much more plausible 1.8% figure? Household incomes are only useful in the context of other factors remaining the same- i.e. number of earners per household. Which is a reasonable assumption in societies where children move out as soon as they have a job, but is not a reasonable assumption here.

    "Since 2014, incomes for 3-, 4-, and 5-person households have increased by 30%,34%, and 32%"
    Last edited by jgl; 25-06-2019 at 08:30 AM.
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  3. #23

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    Original Post Deleted
    This is what I was expecting hence my earlier sniff test comment, but when looking at it on a phone last night, I didn't think about it too deeply and was giving some benefit of the doubt. It's interesting to see such a clear case of misdirection via selective statistics.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by jgl:
    I've just looked back in this thread and realise that I haven't been able to figure out where civil_servant got his figures from in the first place.

    But also, and more importantly, did he selectively disregard income figures for 1 person households which show the much more plausible 1.8% figure? Household incomes are only useful in the context of other factors remaining the same- i.e. number of earners per household. Which is a reasonable assumption in societies where children move out as soon as they have a job, but is not a reasonable assumption here.

    "Since 2014, incomes for 3-, 4-, and 5-person households have increased by 30%,34%, and 32%"
    Average household size has been declining and labour participation rates have been steady. Also, intergenerational households are nothing new to Hong Kong. Fact is, multi-person households are financially better off than they were 5 years ago.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by jgl:
    The simple income statistic is probably either flawed/cherry picked, or it's hiding a deeper changes that tell a very different story.
    The statistic doesn't differentiate between a 5 person household with 5 working adults and a 5 person household with 1 working adult and 4 dependents.
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  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    The statistic doesn't differentiate between a 5 person household with 5 working adults and a 5 person household with 1 working adult and 4 dependents.
    Ah yes, the average composition in households has shifted that dramatically in the past 5 years. You have 0 evidence for that.

    Here is this year's private sector review.

    An important indicator of how the private sector is handling wages, the proposed increase was based on data collected from 108 companies, with their pay rises ranging from 5.32 per cent in the lower band to 6.29 per cent and 5.79 per cent in the middle and higher salary bands respectively.

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    Ah yes, the average composition in households has shifted that dramatically in the past 5 years. You have 0 evidence for that.

    Here is this year's private sector review.
    Are you saying that average pay rises in the private sector are above 5%?

    Is the average person over 30% better off over the 5 years? If yes that explains the income increase for households, if not what do you think explains it?

  8. #28

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    actually civil servant, rather than making statements why don't you just post the source of your numbers?

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  9. #29

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    Hemlock put it well today:

    Every Hong Kong administration since 1997 has had one broad implied policy theme. You can call it ‘to push up housing prices’, ‘to push up rents’, ‘to maximize developers’ margins’, ‘to boost land valuations’ or ‘to accumulate large government surpluses/reserves’. It’s hard to tell which of these is the aim and which are side-effects – but it’s real. As well as obvious manipulation of (and lies about) land supply, we have had around 1 million new immigrants from the Mainland to house, while officials have actively facilitated production of luxury housing for sale to outsiders. At the same time, huge numbers of Mainland tourist-shoppers have swamped public space and seriously distorted the retail sector. All these increase the cost of living and reduce economic opportunities.

    Meanwhile, officials under-spend on hospitals and welfare, ignore environmental problems, and maintain a public-school system for the masses that has a hopelessly outdated curriculum. Officials who fret about an aging population (hence the need for immigrants), also tell young people to leave Hong Kong to enjoy Bay Area Opportunities.
    https://biglychee.com/2019/06/25/not...liberate-pt-2/
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  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by civil_servant:
    Average household size has been declining and labour participation rates have been steady. Also, intergenerational households are nothing new to Hong Kong. Fact is, multi-person households are financially better off than they were 5 years ago.
    Do you have a reference for the increases you state.

    Government data states the below annual increases

    Male Female
    2012 5.6% 6.4%
    2013 5.4% 4.3%
    2014 4.6% 4.5%
    2015 6.6% 6.9%
    2016 4.4% 3.7%
    2017 3.9% 4.4%
    2018 4.1% 3.9%

    That's about a 40% wage increase but according to the RVD rents have gone up by 60% in the same period.

    Don't the ILO suggest using median wage levels is a much better guide for society especially one with bad Gini coefficient.

    Anyway back to the issue of solving protests, Housing is a symptom. What political reform would you suggest?
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