Like Tree9Likes
  • 7 Post By Coolboy
  • 1 Post By sv336
  • 1 Post By Coolboy

The role of HK

Closed Thread
  1. #1

    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Posts
    7,463

    Future of HK?

    Why so serious?
    So, pro-establishment propaganda always like to dismiss HK as irrelevant and anything favouring the pro-democrats as nothing more than foreign interference.That CCP would rather flatten and let the city burn to a crisp than let HK have universal suffrage. Fine, then why is the CCP and the HK government so nervous about this HK bill in Congress? A violation of Chinese sovereignty? Well you can argue it is internal matters of the US to choose how it treats HK. The bill does not reject the fact that HK is part of China. It simply have a mechanism to decide whether HK warrants special treatment separate from that of China. Let's do a little analysis and dig down for the reasons:

    Shanghai or Shenzhen replacing HK?
    You see, people keep saying Shanghai or Shenzhen will replace HK. And yes, their economic development over the last 30 years is something to be recognized and even admire. Their transport and physical infrastructure have surpassed that of HK. They have newer and more impressive skyscrapers, urban parks, highways and malls than HK now. And Shenzhen epsecially in how it has focused on high technology development and and so on. But neither city will replace HK anytime soon, if ever. Why? 70% of foreign investment to and from mainland China goes through HK. That figure says it all.

    An easily exchanged currency rather than the inconvertible yuan, free flowing rather than strict capital controls and the common law legal system in HK vs a rule of man system on the mainland are all something that cannot be easily changed. It is not simply the case that Beijing can declare a new global financial centre and it will become one. No, international business like multinational firms, creditors and other states will have to buy into that. And so far, none has shown any inclination to find an alternative Chinese city to HK (Singapore is more than 1,600 miles south of HK and an independent sovereign state who cares more about relations with Washington). So Beijing knows HK is their achille's heels.

    Sanctions
    So long story short, Beijing knows HK is still vital to their economy, whatever they say otherwise in their propaganda. There are two risk here. The bill will sanction HK and mainland officials personally, oh yes, this will scare them, no more trips to California. No more sending kids to schools in the US. No more investment in the US. That will definitely sting. The other sanction is even more risky for Beijing. Ever since the handover, Washington has one eye open and one eye shut on HK's role as a conduit for China to access high technology equipment, getting around sanctioned entities (i.e. North Korea, Iran firms). Now Washington is no longer prepared to take such a relaxed approach and will tighten oversight of mainland firms using HK as a transhipment point to evade US sanctions. This will sting Beijing even more.

    Self-Inflicted own goal
    This may not bode well for HK's long-term stability and development. The SAR government had said it wanted to focus the city on developing high technology, IT and AI, to wean itself off reliance on real-estate. Well all that, like it or not, depends on access to Western technology at this point. For all the bravado and chest pounding that Beijing does, it knows at the end of the day that it is nowhere near the point where it can replace Western know-how. But all those plans are on a slippery slope if US refuse access to those technologies. From the government's perspective, it was never wise to put HK in the centre of the rising US-China tension. The smart choice was to lay low, let them fight it out while preserving the city's advantages. But no, Lam refusing all arguments to the contrary, ram ahead with this extradition bill. And so, from Washington's view, if Lam is so insistent on screwing over her own city, why not let her? It is a self-inflicted own goal by Lam and her government.

    What now?
    So what now? What are the paths for HK economic development in light of this bill? You can tell me.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 27-11-2019 at 10:33 AM.

  2. #2

    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    624

    I'm trying to explore a view at HK events that starts with an assumption that the policy is solely driven by the decision-making within the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee: basically, less than a dozen of guys and their web of internal fights and priorities. Xi has been at the helm for a long time but never really faced any real crisis. The other guys would be more than happy to overturn him, but they need to carefully form alliances or they're gonna get burnt. Under this view, nothing will change in HK till the conflict within the PSC gets resolved by either Xi replacing his current comrades with a fresh batch or getting replaced by a new leader ready to lead more effectively in the new world's environment. I don't know much about the current state of the PSC, just making assumptions based on the published history of communist regimes. One thing the assumption explains is the complete absence of any initiative from Carry. She's got no role in the big guys' fight, just merely has to wait for whatever the outcome is going to be.

    Coolboy likes this.

  3. #3

    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Posts
    7,463
    Quote Originally Posted by sv336:
    I'm trying to explore a view at HK events that starts with an assumption that the policy is solely driven by the decision-making within the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee: basically, less than a dozen of guys and their web of internal fights and priorities. Xi has been at the helm for a long time but never really faced any real crisis. The other guys would be more than happy to overturn him, but they need to carefully form alliances or they're gonna get burnt. Under this view, nothing will change in HK till the conflict within the PSC gets resolved by either Xi replacing his current comrades with a fresh batch or getting replaced by a new leader ready to lead more effectively in the new world's environment. I don't know much about the current state of the PSC, just making assumptions based on the published history of communist regimes. One thing the assumption explains is the complete absence of any initiative from Carry. She's got no role in the big guys' fight, just merely has to wait for whatever the outcome is going to be.
    They seem paralyzed by indecision, this DC election is a further shock to them. This is the problem with the CCP, inability to compromise making things worse.

    Still, I think the original decision on the extradition bill was Lam's call. She saw an opportunity to score brownie points with her boss up north, completely ignorant on the consequence this would cause.

  4. #4

    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    624
    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    ...Still, I think the original decision on the extradition bill was Lam's call. She saw an opportunity to score brownie points with her boss up north, completely ignorant on the consequence this would cause.
    Agree. The bill looked like a good idea at the time when everyone was still in the euphoria of China's uninterrupted growth. They didn't sense the change in the world's politics that enough momentum has been built across multiple axes to cap China - as Japan got capped in the late 19-hundreds. The current CCP leadership can only operate on slogans, lies and threats. As the history shows, many more ingredients are needed to gain economical and political success and keep it going for decades.

  5. #5

    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Posts
    7,463
    Quote Originally Posted by sv336:
    Agree. The bill looked like a good idea at the time when everyone was still in the euphoria of China's uninterrupted growth. They didn't sense the change in the world's politics that enough momentum has been built across multiple axes to cap China - as Japan got capped in the late 19-hundreds. The current CCP leadership can only operate on slogans, lies and threats. As the history shows, many more ingredients are needed to gain economical and political success and keep it going for decades.
    They say all political leaders become isolated to some extent, including leaders in democratic countries (i.e. US presidents). But that pales in comparison to authoritarian leaders like those in China. This is not help by those that provide intelligence or info to the top leaders, they often have their own agenda to spin the info they provide.
    sv336 likes this.

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Jun 2019
    Posts
    7,463

    The bigger question remains, how and what path can HK develop now under growing US-China tension? Like I said, it was never wise to put yourself into the centre of this geopolitical battle. But now thanks to Lam and her "genius" intellect, that is already done, there is no going back. What paths are available?