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Fluhan - Analyzing the Numbers

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  1. #1

    Fluhan - Analyzing the Numbers

    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Unable to verify this .. but may be you might be onto something.
    Whoever came up with that has not let the facts get in the way of a good story... e.g., 564 / 28605 = 1.97%; 170 / 7821 = 2.17%.

    However, I completely agree there is something going on with the numbers China is releasing. They are definitely “massaging” the numbers. The unknown is if they are being manipulated just a little bit (e.g., smoothing the incremental numbers to reflect operational cut-off points etc.), or if they are a long way from reality. There is enough anecdotal evidence out there to believe the latter if you want, and of course it is something China does all the time so it would not be out of character.

    Personally though, I think the China statistics on the virus are likely not too far from the truth. What makes me say this is that the virus has not spread at the same pace in places like HK and elsewhere in Asia, and even some other provinces in China. It seems very evident there was an outbreak in Wuhan that was left unchecked for a period of weeks, which is why it got so out of control there. This has spilled over into other parts of China to varying degrees.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ephemeral:
    Whoever came up with that has not let the facts get in the way of a good story... e.g., 564 / 28605 = 1.97%; 170 / 7821 = 2.17%.

    However, I completely agree there is something going on with the numbers China is releasing. They are definitely “massaging” the numbers. The unknown is if they are being manipulated just a little bit (e.g., smoothing the incremental numbers to reflect operational cut-off points etc.), or if they are a long way from reality. There is enough anecdotal evidence out there to believe the latter if you want, and of course it is something China does all the time so it would not be out of character.

    Personally though, I think the China statistics on the virus are likely not too far from the truth. What makes me say this is that the virus has not spread at the same pace in places like HK and elsewhere in Asia, and even some other provinces in China. It seems very evident there was an outbreak in Wuhan that was left unchecked for a period of weeks, which is why it got so out of control there. This has spilled over into other parts of China to varying degrees.
    I am not a math expert - been 30+ years since I studied this sort of stuff. People in finance/actuarial fields may be able to make more sense of these numbers.

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...87384892313600

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...75930221371392
    AsianXpat0 likes this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    I am not a math expert - been 30+ years since I studied this sort of stuff. People in finance/actuarial fields may be able to make more sense of these numbers.

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...87384892313600

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...75930221371392
    It is very interesting to read all his posts on this. Either he is a total fruitcake or the Chinese figures are produced by a quadratic equation. Or reality matches a quadratic equation. I not knowledgeable enough to know.

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    @hullexile I am with you on this .... with someone could put this into an excel spreadsheet and predict Monday's 8AM numbers.



    This could be a consideration though...

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...89659247124481


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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    @hullexile I am with you on this .... with someone could put this into an excel spreadsheet and predict Monday's 8AM numbers.



    This could be a consideration though...

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...89659247124481
    Well he is saying 647 deaths for this morning's announcement....

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    The graph from the above post was from this tweet.

    https://twitter.com/evdefender/statu...55479692222464

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    using the forecast tool in Excel this is what I got (95% confidence interval):

    coffee_break and timonoj like this.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Plutark:
    using the forecast tool in Excel this is what I got (95% confidence interval):

    Nice work.

    Where did you get the historical data from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by balancedequatio:
    Nice work.

    Where did you get the historical data from?

    took it from that guy on Twitter, problem is to know which numbers are the real ones.
    shri likes this.

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    Moved this out the daily update clutter ...


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