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128 mortgage loans in negative equity - How many more?

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  1. #11

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    I think Hong Kong will chug along in mediocrity over the medium term until 2047. As SAR stands for, it's really an administration here, not a government in the normal sense. So don't expect too much. If you've noticed on your visits to Shenzhen and elsewhere in China, they have made tremendous progress not just infrastructure but the streets are clean and drivers are more respectful of pedestrians. It's a different mindset without getting into politics.

    Skyhook, mrgoodkat and tf19 like this.

  2. #12

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    Jan 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBrit
    Yes, I agree 128 cases is immaterial. Also, it isn't the right metric to look at for early signs of stress.
    Yes, just tells you the number of people who gleefully bid above market price (I'm guessing 10% or whatever) and only paid 5% down. For most properties that cushion is much higher. Until it hits a 20% drop, it's unlikely to affect properties bought in the last year. For ones bought even before 2018, they have an even larger cushion in equity. I don't know the breakdown of purchase time for Hong Kong properties. And it would involve owner cash, other properties, income, etc to a certain extent too as stress tests.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by AnthonyT
    I think Hong Kong will chug along in mediocrity over the medium term until 2047. As SAR stands for, it's really an administration here, not a government in the normal sense. So don't expect too much. If you've noticed on your visits to Shenzhen and elsewhere in China, they have made tremendous progress not just infrastructure but the streets are clean and drivers are more respectful of pedestrians. It's a different mindset without getting into politics.
    Politics and lack of freedoms aside, Shenzhen is indeed a more pleasant place to be than HK.

  4. #14

    Join Date
    Oct 2019
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    It's the Homeowners who are Upside-down

    Negative equity means homeowners are paying the mortgage on a (say) 6 million dollar flat whilst the market value has dropped to 5 million dollars. Homes are not the most liquid of investments to begin with. What do you think happens when demand falls off a cliff? Look, bottom line is that Hong Kong is a massive property bubble thanks to Li Ka Shing, the Kwok brothers, Gordon Woo, Henry Cheng and all those tycoons who control the puppet strings of our government heads. Negative equity is evidence that fundamental changes has already taken place. The owners need to cut ties from their loosing investments slowly so as not to unhinge the stupid banks that loaned indiscriminately. But Hong Kong has so few natural born citizens who can barely afford to buy a two million dollar apartment, so once the fears form the Covid-19 abate, the puppet masters will have to open the flood gates to folks from the North with suitcases of cash once again. The 2 million local born youngsters who want to buy a home can only afford two million dollars so they are all in line for government housing.


  5. #15

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    May 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rauttskjold
    Negative equity means homeowners are paying the mortgage on a (say) 6 million dollar flat whilst the market value has dropped to 5 million dollars. Homes are not the most liquid of investments to begin with. What do you think happens when demand falls off a cliff? Look, bottom line is that Hong Kong is a massive property bubble thanks to Li Ka Shing, the Kwok brothers, Gordon Woo, Henry Cheng and all those tycoons who control the puppet strings of our government heads. Negative equity is evidence that fundamental changes has already taken place. The owners need to cut ties from their loosing investments slowly so as not to unhinge the stupid banks that loaned indiscriminately. But Hong Kong has so few natural born citizens who can barely afford to buy a two million dollar apartment, so once the fears form the Covid-19 abate, the puppet masters will have to open the flood gates to folks from the North with suitcases of cash once again. The 2 million local born youngsters who want to buy a home can only afford two million dollars so they are all in line for government housing.
    I for one don’t really care what my home and mortgage are as long as I can afford the mortgage - it’s a place to live - period.

    To be honest, as a dad, I can see the bright side of a dip in prices when the inevitable question 20 years later comes along.

    As a staunch capitalist with a strong socialist conscience (work that contradiction out!), more affordable housing is certainly something I agree with

  6. #16

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    Jan 2018
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    would have to X1,000 to get me interested


  7. #17

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    Dec 2013
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    Any indication property prices are actually falling yet in HK? They need to fall about 80 percent for me to want to buy but apparently this did happen before!


  8. #18

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    takes time..
    in time sequence, people would start losing job, then foreigner numbers will fall, rental demand will drop, more houses will be left empty, rental falls, then the marginal owner would have to start selling or be foreclosed..


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