I think this assumption by David4Math that US won't dare to do anything is fundamentally flawed and based on the naive belief that US would not do anything about HK. That might have been the case before but not anymore. He is ignorant of the big shift in Washington in sentiment towards China. This is bigger than Trump, there is now bi-partisan consensus in Washington that they now see China increasingly as a threat to their security and economic well-being. Washington is willing now to pay a price to confront China. This willingness wasn't there before (i.e. Bill Clinton backed down over the most-favoured-nation trading status when he saw China was not going to relent). But back then, China wasn't seen as the threat it is today in Washington. That changes the calcuation for Washington.
You are doing your normal thing. I am sure the US will do something for example make some comments, a few diplomatic spats, perhaps a few trade slaps. The question is whether they will do anything (i) significant and (ii) military? Not whether they will do nothing at all.
Military action? Unlikely, there is no military solution to the HK issue after all. Other measures are more relevant. Sanctions are now a real possibility. Withdrawing recognition of special status? Less likely and maybe not immediately, the US could either a) remove recognition in certain areas to serve as a warning to Beijing or b) warn that any enforcement of this law will result in suspension of recognition entirely.
Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 03:34 PM.
I think we are missing the bigger picture by just focusing on Trump. Because that is predicated on the belief his anti-China stance is solely a product of his own machinations and nothing else. That is not correct. Like I said, there is now a political consensus in Washington to push back against China by both the GOP and the Democrats. This consensus wasn't there before. It is now here though. And it will likely outlast Trump. If Biden wins, things are not simply going back to normal for Sino-US relations.
There are so many, you just pretend they don't exist.
1. The HK Human Rights Act
2. The bill in the Senate to delist Chinese firms on Wall Street
3. The whole trade war
4. The mutual expulsion of journalists from China and US
5. Surveys showing growing number of Americans are hostile to Chinese goods:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...goods-pandemic
6. Surveys showing unfavourable perception of China in the US jumping from 47% in 2017 to 60% in 2019:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...rd-china-2019/
These surveys matter, because it indirectly reflects the mood of the electorate towards China policies. Politicians capitalize and campaigns on this voter mood and tailor policies to suit this mood. Why do you think Biden is attacking Trump for being soft on China? There is a consensus in Washingon now to be anti-China.
Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 04:39 PM.
You've made your point, CB. I like I'm sure many others hope you're eventually proven right (to some extent). Unfortunately, I think that those expecting the US to do something, even being able to do something, that will prevent or even delay this new security legislation becoming a reality will be bitterly disappointed. If the mainland is willing to endure a degree of short term economic pain to resolve the political issues they have in HK over the next few years then what realistically could be done to stop them?
Also, the idea that Multinationals will pack up and leave in solidarity with the democracy movement here is just very naive. If, over say the next few years, Beijing can demonstrate that HK has maintained legit fiscal autonomy, then companies will be appeased and it'll be business as usual.
But that's wrong on political reality. US will do something. Yes, it can't stop the passage of the national security law. But it can penalize those who will enforce this law through sanctions. As for multinational firms, its not only a matter of fiscal autonomy, its legal autonomy that matters. With this move, the mainland is imposing Chinese laws onto HK. The rationale for US firms basing themselves in HK evaporates. There is now a much greater degree of uncertainty to the impartial dispensation of justice in HK. US firms will fear the mainland going after them on some manufactured pretext using this national law. Subversion and sedition is anything the CCP say it is after all. If they can ram through this law through the pretext of Annex III, what else can they do? They can do potentially anything. A firm winning a case in the local HK courts can have that result be nullified by some NPC reintrpretation after all, if the loser is some well-connected mainland firm. One country two systems does not exist now. The good reason to base your business in HK is therefore nullified because now there is no real and meaningful distinction betwen the two jurisdictions.
Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 05:14 PM.
Yes. The US will do something. I think most are in agreement with that statement. I am anyway. But if that something doesn't materially change anything for the better in HK, then does it really matter to us living here?
As for multinationals. If you say so. Only time will tell. I mean their biggest investment banks are pouring into the mainland at the moment, so not sure why they'd get cold feet in HK. Feel free to bump this post a couple of years from now if you've been proven right and a few major financial service firms/banks/brokerages etc. have pulled out or substantially reduced their presence here.