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What if they don't find a vaccine?

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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by john_1122:

    Anyway, as I wrote the death rate of covid-19 in Europe is 5 times higher than that of the flu. Right now in the UK you have 15971 new cases and 101 death (7 days moving average), for a rate of 0.63%. On the other hand, the death rate from seasonal flu is between 0.1 and 0.15%.
    The coronavirus death rate is calculated based on confirmed cases, i.e. cases that are so severe they require medical attention. It's estimated that 80% of cases are asymptomatic. Total flu cases are estimated, for example a total of 35 million CDC estimated infections in the US in 2019 versus 8 million coronavirus cases. That obviously brings the death rate up by a factor of 4. Coincidentally your posted death rates are 0.63 versus 0.15. Or roughly a difference of 4.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    The coronavirus death rate is calculated based on confirmed cases, i.e. cases that are so severe they require medical attention. It's estimated that 80% of cases are asymptomatic. Total flu cases are estimated, for example a total of 35 million CDC estimated infections in the US in 2019 versus 8 million coronavirus cases. That obviously brings the death rate up by a factor of 4. Coincidentally your posted death rates are 0.63 versus 0.15. Or roughly a difference of 4.
    Same with flu. If you have mild flu it's going to be a running nose, a cough and sore throat, and you are not going to see a doctor/it's not going to be in the statistics.

    I posted death rates of 0.63 v. 0.1, which is a difference of 6. Ok, you say 4 I say 6, let's do an average of 5, which is what I said all along. Keep digging...
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  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    The coronavirus death rate is calculated based on confirmed cases, i.e. cases that are so severe they require medical attention. It's estimated that 80% of cases are asymptomatic. Total flu cases are estimated, for example a total of 35 million CDC estimated infections in the US in 2019 versus 8 million coronavirus cases. That obviously brings the death rate up by a factor of 4. Coincidentally your posted death rates are 0.63 versus 0.15. Or roughly a difference of 4.
    No it isn't. Confirmed cases are mostly mild or asymptomatic. Why do you keep making stuff up?

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    The coronavirus death rate is calculated based on confirmed cases, i.e. cases that are so severe they require medical attention. It's estimated that 80% of cases are asymptomatic. Total flu cases are estimated, for example a total of 35 million CDC estimated infections in the US in 2019 versus 8 million coronavirus cases. That obviously brings the death rate up by a factor of 4. Coincidentally your posted death rates are 0.63 versus 0.15. Or roughly a difference of 4.
    2019 flu stats are irrelevant. They're from a time when the whole world was open and mingled with each other. If one looks at flu stats for 2020 it appears that it has been wiped from the slate. Deaths from covid are low because of restrictions that keep transmission in check. Without these restrictions there would be nothing to gloat about in the numbers.

  5. #25

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    The better question is are you confident enough to take the vaccine when it is out. Normally a vaccine takes decades to develop out of caution. If the pharmaceutical company tells you tomorrow that their Covid 19 vaccines are safe to take and does not have side effects five or ten years from now, they are lying. Because only time will tell and that is why vaccines take years of testing.

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  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    No it isn't. Confirmed cases are mostly mild or asymptomatic. Why do you keep making stuff up?
    If people don't require medical attention they obviously won't go and get tested. Test rates in most countries are really low with more than 90% of people not getting tested. Even if you test negative at a government mass test it doesn't mean you haven't already had it. The PCR tests only confirms if you are infected at the moment of the test.
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  7. #27

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    Original Post Deleted
    Thalidomide?

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by mrgoodkat:
    If people don't require medical attention they obviously won't go and get tested. Test rates in most countries are really low with more than 90% of people not getting tested.
    You can find at worldmoeters what the test rate is. In the UK it's 426,333 out of a million, i.e. 42.6%, which I believe is more than 10%. In some countries it's higher, in others lower.

    Even if you test negative at a government mass test it doesn't mean you haven't already had it. The PCR tests only confirms if you are infected at the moment of the test.
    I believe if you don't find the antibodies after one was infected, then the person can get infected again, which means the vaccine won't work?

  9. #29

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    "There are several examples of how fast-tracking vaccines can backfire. A massive campaign to vaccinate against the 1976 swine flu flopped when the disease turned out to be mild, but hundreds of people suffered a rare nerve disorder after vaccination. And a vaccine used in some European countries against H1N1 flu in 2009 caused some people to develop the sleep disorder narcolepsy."

    seriously, it only takes common sense...

  10. #30

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    Isn't it funny that some people are happy to let the virus run rampant so that life can go one when little is known about the long term effect of said virus and the immunity that comes with it but then are concerned about the effect of a vaccine.

    The logical first step would be to target the vaccine to populations that are most at risk first and see what the results are. I have never had a flu shot and I can't remember when I last had the flu either. I am not a high risk so unless the vaccine is compulsory for travel, I won't be in line for the first batches.

    john_1122 likes this.

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