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Biden's policy on Hong Kong, will it be different from Trump?

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    With Europe going all in ... with UK MPs voting that its ok to do trade deals with certain types of countries and HK's reputation as a trustable common law jurisdiction lets see how long that "conduit" thing lasts for.
    You'll be surprised. HK's role for China has always been far bigger than its relatively tiny GDP percentage relative to the China's economy. Right now China still needs HK, even with the trade deals. China taps over a third of their US dollar-based funding through the HK debt market. Chinese banks hold more assets in HK than in any other region outside of the mainland. HK would also play a critical role in the long-term aim to be make the yuan convertible. If the US wants to play nasty, all those things will be impacted, to the detriment of China.

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    Genuine interest in issues in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and China generally is small.

    Not directly related to Biden but for the overall picture. The EU has recently agreed a trade deal with China and the UK government is opposing an amendment to a trade bill that will stop ministers striking trade deals with countries found guilty of genocide by the high court.


    Sadly leaders tend to be more interested in what is good for them/their country than the morals/social justice of the situation in other countries.
    Its becoming a big issue in the US. Granted, one can argue to the extent that the US cares about HK or Xinjiang, it is only as a means to attack China and stop it from surpassing the US, but even in that sense, those topics become relevant. And the EU investment deal still needs approval from the European Parliament. That is not automatic given the growing concerns of China's human rights record and the need to align with the new Biden administration to adopt a more unified approach to China.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 20-01-2021 at 06:29 PM.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    Genuine interest in issues in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and China generally is small.
    But 'look bad things happening on a massive scale over there' is a handy whataboutism to have for a government needing a foreign policy narrative for the domestic audience.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Its becoming a big issue in the US. Granted, one can argue to the extent that the US cares about HK or Xinjiang, it is only as a means to attack China and stop it from surpassing the US, but even in that sense, those topics become relevant. And the EU investment deal still needs approval from the European Parliament. That is not automatic given the growing concerns of China's human rights record and the need to align with the new Biden administration to adopt a more unified approach to China.
    I agree that awareness of these issues have certainly heightened in press/public. (although with still a long way to go - mention Uighurs and Xinjang to most of my friends/family and there would be blank faces and even awareness of the political situation in Hong Kong is superficial)

    However my personal opinion is that politicians are not prepared to do anything that might have a major impact on their own economies. We are too used to cheap Chinese produced stuff. I might be too cynical and I hope I am wrong but that's my feeling at the moment.

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    I agree that awareness of these issues have certainly heightened in press/public. (although with still a long way to go - mention Uighurs and Xinjang to most of my friends/family and there would be blank faces and even awareness of the political situation in Hong Kong is superficial)

    However my personal opinion is that politicians are not prepared to do anything that might have a major impact on their own economies. We are too used to cheap Chinese produced stuff. I might be too cynical and I hope I am wrong but that's my feeling at the moment.
    I agree. Many of my friends I would call politically aware and most on the left of centre. Their views would mostly be that what is happening in Hong Kong seems wrong but without any interest in doing anything about it or expecting governments to do anything about it.

  6. #16

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    Biden has pledged to focus like a laser on the pandemic in the US. He wants to get 100 million vaccinations in 100 days which is a herculean task. I hope he is up to the challenge.

    I don't think he is going to do a lot of foreign policy matters (except to roll back some of Trump's doings) until the numbers in the US start going seriously down. Pretty sure we'll be well over 500,000 deaths before things really start turning around as we are already well over 400,000 deaths with the last 100,000 only taking about a month.

    US is pinning all its hopes on the vaccines and is now pinning all its hopes on Biden to get the vaccines administered.


  7. #17

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    No one will do anything about Hong Kong unless there is a benefit to them in their dealings with China and they will throw it under the bus if it suits them. Best case, they will continue to help the HK people that want out.

    What concrete actions have been taken besides big words on Tibet and the Uighurs? I don't expect HK to receive any more help than those.

    People care, denounce and I'm sure HK gets loads of thoughts and prayers and that's about it.


  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I agree. Many of my friends I would call politically aware and most on the left of centre. Their views would mostly be that what is happening in Hong Kong seems wrong but without any interest in doing anything about it or expecting governments to do anything about it.
    Unless it helps US interest. Like I said, it's not the city so much as the role it plays for China. If US is serious on wanting to weaken China, HK would be one area of vulnerability.

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    No one will do anything about Hong Kong unless there is a benefit to them in their dealings with China .
    If US see China as their top rival as they claim, then taking action on HK would make political sense.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    If US see China as their top rival, then taking action on HK would make political sense.
    Any action taken on HK will have retaliations on the US coming from China. It's not a one way street and they can both hurt each other plenty. I doubt that Biden will want to pick a fight when he has massive domestic problems. Biden also seem more concerned about Russia than China. I would be very surprised to see anything significant happening with China anytime soon.