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Biden's policy on Hong Kong, will it be different from Trump?

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  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauljoecoe:
    On it's knees is a little melodramatic. The issues they have at the moment are temporary. Trump is gone - it won't take long for Biden to restore some of the international reputation and restore a little normality to US politics. The pandemic will pass, or at least be controlled with the vaccine on the way. They fundamentals of the US as a democracy are still strong - and stock market is still riding high.
    These were not my words, they were from the article. Sure the US was tested and came out of it bloodied but unbowed. That is good...I do believe that Biden will put America back on the rails but it won't happen overnight. Everything is being kept afloat with bailout money which will have consequences. The US is printing money, increasing its debt and will run at a huge deficit for the foreseeable future, these are not good fundamentals and it will take years to redress. There is some optimism that the pandemic will pass but no one really knows what's going to happen and there's a variant that may already be resistant to vaccine.

    There is absolutely no way that Biden will want a trade war/hostility with China over a questions of human rights in HK. That is naive beyond belief... The Democrats have a razor thin margin in the Senate, lost seats in the House last election so the main focus will be to get things back on track at home and get through the mid terms. Clearly it's someone else who is very naive and has a poor understanding of US politics.

    Sure in the long run, I have more belief in the US than in China but Biden isn't the long run. It's most likely one term.

    The reality and the facts are clear. What has the US done to concretely help Tibetans? What have they done to help the UIghurs? What has Europe just done? Sigh a trade agreement with China. THAT is what most governments want... Do business, make money and try to improve the life of their own citizen especially now. Coolboy loves to conjure up all kinds of things that the world could do to foil China but in the end, it's not in anyone's interest to be at war. It's a game of push and pull and containment. The US hasn't even been able to do much right next door with a tiny place like Cuba, to think that they are going to effect significant change in China is ridiculous.

  2. #32

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    Original Post Deleted
    I agree and never thought or said that Biden will undo everything that Trump did with China. I'm simply saying that his focus will be quite rightly in my opinion, elsewhere. I don't expect him to initially do much either way with China and in the flurry of executive orders he just did, there's nothing to do with China. As I said before, more important things on his plate.
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  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    There is absolutely no way that Biden will want a trade war/hostility with China over a questions of human rights in HK. That is naive beyond belief... The Democrats have a razor thin margin in the Senate, lost seats in the House last election so the main focus will be to get things back on track at home and get through the mid terms. Clearly it's someone else who is very naive and has a poor understanding of US politics.

    .
    You don't get US politics do you? Let me repeat: There is bipartisan consensus in Washington to be tough on China. When US politics is so divided these days, being tough on China are one of the few things that unite both parties.

    The Democrats always cared more about human rights than the GOP. Blinken, Biden's Secretary of State nominee, is Jewish and her mother was a Holocaust survivor. Upholding and defending human rights matter to him deeply. He will not turn a blind eye to rampant human rights abuse in Hong Kong or the rest of China. He will tackle it, but not in a reckless moronic way like the Trump administration, making enemies of everyone.

    What the Biden Administration will do is confront China in a more systematic and structured way than the Trump Administration. Unlike Trump, Biden won't provoke China with random inflammatory words just to spite China (but with little real gains in practice). He will instead seek to gain an international alliance to confront China. That is far more dangerous to Beijing than the stupid approach of Trump.

    As for war? Who said anything about war? What matters is imposing cost on China for their conduct. During the Trump administration, there was a tough but scattershot approach. It had limited effectiveness because there is a limit to what the US can do alone. Your inability to grasp that reveal your very limited understanding of international relations.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 21-01-2021 at 10:52 AM.

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    I agree and never thought or said that Biden will undo everything that Trump did with China. I'm simply saying that his focus will be quite rightly in my opinion, elsewhere. I don't expect him to initially do much either way with China and in the flurry of executive orders he just did, there's nothing to do with China. As I said before, more important things on his plate.
    Of course tackling Covid and the economic consequences of that will be his priority. But China will emerge as a topic to confront eventually. Do you think Biden's Secretary of State and National Security Advisor will just sit on their hands while Biden deals with the pandemic? Of course not. They will prepare a strategy to deal with China, using both existing tools as well as new ones. You do realize international crises with China, North Korea or some other country do not disappear just because Biden is focusing on dealing with the pandemic, right?

    Biden has to multi-task instead. That's what his cabinet members are for. Blinken will have the duties to flesh out a China strategy while the president tackles Covid.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    You don't get US politics do you?

    As for war? Who said anything about war? What matters is imposing cost on China for their conduct. During the Trump administration, there was a tough but scattershot approach. It had limited effectiveness because there is a limit to what the US can do alone. Your inability to grasp that reveal your very limited understanding of international relations.
    I'm the one who don't get US politics? Let me remind you how much you were waffling when the Senate runoffs were going on when I called the win early when both candidates were behind and you were oh but this could happen, that could happen so don't go pretending that all off a sudden you're somehow able to see the future better. We have different views on what might happen, as I said, in my opinion, you mostly project your wishes on what is going to happen whereas I deal in the reality of what is most likely to happen. Just like Trump's removal or impeachment... Lay off the silly rhetoric that you understand the world better and just stick with facts

    By the way, a few posts ago, you are claiming that the US is able to hurt China far more than the reverse and now you're backpedalling a bit saying that there's a limit to what the US can do alone. THAT I certainly agree with.

    Yes Biden will rejoin the world and it's more conducive to a consistent policy against China yet everyone also have their own agenda as the european trade agteement shows. Yes Biden has to be firm with China, it's a matter of how much in order to keep trade healthy and THAT is far more important than the loss of some rights in in HK. Money will ALWAYS trump human rights. Do I wish it was different sure but that is not the world we live in.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    I'm the one who don't get US politics? Let me remind you how much you were waffling when the Senate runoffs were going on when I called the win early when both candidates were behind and you were oh but this could happen, that could happen so don't go pretending that all off a sudden you're somehow able to see the future better. We have different views on what might happen, as I said, in my opinion, you mostly project your wishes on what is going to happen whereas I deal in the reality of what is most likely to happen. Just like Trump's removal or impeachment... Lay off the silly rhetoric that you understand the world better and just stick with facts

    By the way, a few posts ago, you are claiming that the US is able to hurt China far more than the reverse and now you're backpedalling a bit saying that there's a limit to what the US can do alone. THAT I certainly agree with.

    Yes Biden will rejoin the world and it's more conducive to a consistent policy against China yet everyone also have their own agenda as the european trade agteement shows. Yes Biden has to be firm with China, it's a matter of how much in order to keep trade healthy and THAT is far more important than the loss of some rights in in HK. Money will ALWAYS trump human rights. Do I wish it was different sure but that is not the world we live in.
    Yes, you don't get US politics at all. Waffling on the senate run? I was just being careful. I don't jump the gun. Simple as that. Project wishes? Its not wishes, but a reality. There is bipartisan consensus to be tough on China in Washington. That is a FACT, not "silly" rhetoric.

    Money always trump human rights? Then why was there is a demand for decoupling between the US and Chinese economy in Washington? Your mentality is still stuck in the 90's and 00's when trade and commerce was the priority over anything else in Sino-US relations. That's no longer the case. Washington is beginning to realize the vulnerabilities of such economic dependency on China. So does Beijing. That means MONEY NO LONGER TRUMP EVERYTHING else in Sino-US relations. National security is now the priority, and indirectly, also human rights.

    You claim you want human rights to matter, but I can't escape the conclusion you WANT money to trump human rights, everytime. Sorry, I can't accept such an ethically dubious approach.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 21-01-2021 at 11:32 AM.

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Yes, you don't get US politics at all. Waffling on the senate run? I was just being careful. I don't jump the gun. Simple as that. Project wishes? Its not wishes, but a reality. There is bipartisan consensus to be tough on China in Washington. That is a FACT, not "silly" rhetoric.
    Forgive me for finding your self proclaimed superior knowledge of politics humorous when you couldn't call an election that every analyst said was done. When you go on about all the ways that Trump could be removed when it was clearly never going to happen(and nothing more than impeachment will come out of it) and for looking at all the ways that Trump (and now Biden) would foil China's assimilation of Hong Kong and yet very little happened(and nothing will) to change the course of said assimilation. Not exactly what I'd call a stellar track record but I'm glad you have self esteem. Most of the time, you write what you would like to see happen instead of what is likely to happen. Nothing wrong with that but don't expect the realist(or fatalist if you prefer) to stroke your ego.

    We'll just have to see what happens... which in my opinion will be very little. In my simplistic and limited understanding of US politics, I know that domestic issues will always dominate over international ones. What Biden has to worry about the most after the pandemic is getting through the mid terms, those mid terms are about what is going on in each specific state. Trade is what affects jobs and the economy in those states and not human rights on the other side of the world. I would bet that most American voters couldn't even come close to pointing where Hong Kong is on a map. It doesn't mean ignoring China, Russia or other international issues but that is never going to be what they will want to see dominating the news cycle.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aramis:
    Forgive me for finding your self proclaimed superior knowledge of politics humorous when you couldn't call an election that every analyst said was done. When you go on about all the ways that Trump could be removed when it was clearly never going to happen(and nothing more than impeachment will come out of it) and for looking at all the ways that Trump (and now Biden) would foil China's assimilation of Hong Kong and yet very little happened(and nothing will) to change the course of said assimilation. Not exactly what I'd call a stellar track record but I'm glad you have self esteem. Most of the time, you write what you would like to see happen instead of what is likely to happen. Nothing wrong with that but don't expect the realist(or fatalist if you prefer) to stroke your ego.

    We'll just have to see what happens... which in my opinion will be very little. In my simplistic and limited understanding of US politics, I know that domestic issues will always dominate over international ones. What Biden has to worry about the most after the pandemic is getting through the mid terms, those mid terms are about what is going on in each specific state. Trade is what affects jobs and the economy in those states and not human rights on the other side of the world. I would bet that most American voters couldn't even come close to pointing where Hong Kong is on a map. It doesn't mean ignoring China, Russia or other international issues but that is never going to be what they will want to see dominating the news cycle.
    I have superior knowledge beause I have evidence to back-up my claims. You however have nothing. So forgive me if I find your so-called prognosis absurd with nothing to back that up. Now you are trying to change the topic to the Georgia Senate run-off because you can't defend your argument with evidence. That is a sure sign you lost the argument.

    Tell me, if money is still the the be-all-and-end-all in US-China relations, then WHY are so many in Washington advocating a decoupling of the US economy from China? WHY isn't Biden backtracking on Trump's tariff moves on China? He's got no problem reversing other Trump measures like the Muslim ban and border wall. But on China, Biden is sticking to Trump. Like it or not, national security and human rights are now taking priority in Sino-US relations. Thats empirical evidence in Biden's moves. You got nothing to back up your claim however.

    You call yourself a realist, but I think the better term is an amoral nihilist who couldn't care less about human rights in China and is happy to sell your soul for the almighty dollar. At least be honest and admit what you stand for.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 21-01-2021 at 04:56 PM.

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    I have superior knowledge beause I have evidence to back-up my claims. You however have nothing. So forgive me if I find your so-called prognosis absurd with nothing to back that up. Now you are trying to change the topic to the Georgia Senate run-off because you can't defend your argument with evidence. That is a sure sign you lost the argument.

    Tell me, if money is still the the be-all-and-end-all in US-China relations, then WHY are so many in Washington advocating a decoupling of the US economy from China? WHY isn't Biden backtracking on Trump's tariff moves on China? He's got no problem reversing other Trump measures like the Muslim ban and border wall. But on China, Biden is sticking to Trump. Like it or not, National security and human rights are now taking priority in Sino-US relations. Thats empirical evidence in Biden's moves. You got nothing to back up your claim however.

    You call yourself a realist, but I think the better term is an amoral nihilist who couldn't care less about human rights in China and is happy to sell your soul for the almighty dollar. At least be honest and admit what you stand for.
    Two Canadians living in Hong Kong arguing about who is the expert on US politics. You have to love the internet.
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  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    You have to love the internet.
    You mean geoexpat?