Big picture on state of covid HK (2021, 2022)

[zerg8]

The suspension of the Biontech vaccine has been an extremely disappointing setback and the deaths from the sinovac vaccine does not seem to re-assure anyone either. It seems that everything that could go wrong in a vaccination campaign has gone wrong PR wise and there is honestly little incentive to get a jab with urgency and as the days go by I start to see the argument from the "wait-and-see" crowd.

Many industries have been heavily affected since mid-2019 when the protests started and they haven't had a break in what would be close to two years by summer. Almost half of all bars in Hong Kong are going under and many sectors of the economy have taken a hit (maybe with the exception of finance, bonuses have been through the roof). In the US and UK vaccination numbers have been setting records day after day and the hope is that a critical mass can get vaccinated from now till the end of summer so that winter will not be as brutal as the past year's (in the hopes that there would not be a fall/winter surge with herd immunity). While they may have stumbled hard in the beginning they have finally got their act together recently and seem to be doing quite well.

Unfortunately, with the rate of current vaccinations, it does not seem that Hong Kong could be afforded this luxury. With the current state of affairs, it seems very improbable that a critical mass could be inoculated by the end of summer. By then, we may have had the 7th or 8th wave in the fall (probably the only place in the world for that to happen). If that were to happen, it would not be far fetched to think that covid would only start to recede in the turn of Spring for 2022 (basically exactly one year from now). What was heralded as a success story by the international press in the first 2-3 months of covid ultimately turns into a covid laggard, only coming out of the pandemic after most developed countries have recovered and on-pace with developing regions like Africa and LatAm (but they were unable to procure vaccines while HK had).

To myself, the short and medium term future seems quite bleak in terms of social life and economic prospects. With the anticipation of a post-covid economic boom once enough places achieve herd immunity I am afraid that Hong Kong may still be stuck in mandatory quarantine and social distancing regulations. Maybe I am presenting a bearish case? It seems hard pressed to find any optimism right now.

[hullexile]

The suspension of the Biontech vaccine has been an extremely disappointing setback and the deaths from the sinovac vaccine does not seem to re-assure anyone either. It seems that everything that could go wrong in a vaccination campaign has gone wrong PR wise and there is honestly little incentive to get a jab with urgency and as the days go by I start to see the argument from the "wait-and-see" crowd.

Many industries have been heavily affected since mid-2019 when the protests started and they haven't had a break in what would be close to two years by summer. Almost half of all bars in Hong Kong are going under and many sectors of the economy have taken a hit (maybe with the exception of finance, bonuses have been through the roof). In the US and UK vaccination numbers have been setting records day after day and the hope is that a critical mass can get vaccinated from now till the end of summer so that winter will not be as brutal as the past year's (in the hopes that there would not be a fall/winter surge with herd immunity). While they may have stumbled hard in the beginning they have finally got their act together recently and seem to be doing quite well.

Unfortunately, with the rate of current vaccinations, it does not seem that Hong Kong could be afforded this luxury. With the current state of affairs, it seems very improbable that a critical mass could be inoculated by the end of summer. By then, we may have had the 7th or 8th wave in the fall (probably the only place in the world for that to happen). If that were to happen, it would not be far fetched to think that covid would only start to recede in the turn of Spring for 2022 (basically exactly one year from now). What was heralded as a success story by the international press in the first 2-3 months of covid ultimately turns into a covid laggard, only coming out of the pandemic after most developed countries have recovered and on-pace with developing regions like Africa and LatAm (but they were unable to procure vaccines while HK had).

To myself, the short and medium term future seems quite bleak in terms of social life and economic prospects. With the anticipation of a post-covid economic boom once enough places achieve herd immunity I am afraid that Hong Kong may still be stuck in mandatory quarantine and social distancing regulations. Maybe I am presenting a bearish case? It seems hard pressed to find any optimism right now.

I think if the countries with high vaccination rates continue to look positive and open up their economies then the people in Hong Kong might see the benefits to getting vaccinated. (Though I am becoming increasingly pessimistic as well, mankind seems hell bent on making this as bad as possible).

[RobRoy]

I wrote in another thread on this topic (https://geoexpat.com/forum/24/thread359738.html) a prediction just when vaccination was about to start, I might adjust the percentages downward a little bit now, but otherwise I think this still stands as my prediction:

My prediction is that HK will reach around 50% of population vaccinated by Sep-Oct and society will be going through the same cycles we experienced the past 6 months until then.

Around October time HK government will start to struggle because vaccine is available but people are not showing up at the rate they had done up until that point to get their jabs. In November when HK only reached 58% of the population and its clear that a certain portion of the population does not want to take any vaccine HK government gets into a tough situation. After 1 month of trying to push people to vaccinate and failing reaching more than 62%, HK opens up in December again basically telling people its their own choice to not be vaccinated and running the risk of becoming severely ill.

[vmlinuz]

I don't know how much of an effort there has been in HK, in the end, to focus on vaccinating the most vulnerable, but it wouldn't surprise me if the situation we're in now effectively becomes permanent. Near-zero deaths, regular small numbers (<20 per day, say) of new local infections, mostly mild or asymptomatic, with occasional clusters, everything well within the capacity of the health service. We have a total (per Aaron) of 18 serious/critical cases in hospital in HK right now...

The question is, what does that mean for control measure and quarantines, both locally of close contacts, and for travelers - particularly as infection numbers fall and vaccination numbers rise, at least in some parts of the world. I would hope that the quarantine could be relaxed, and that the desire for travel would encourage HKers (of whatever background) to get vaccinated over time, but who knows in this crazy mixed-up place.

[Beanieskis]

I agree with your outlook. And I think that is why the government will have no option but to come down hard on the wait and see crowd - with very strong measures that make life difficult if you aren't vaccinated. In the UK they're talking about vaccine passports to enter bars - I can see that happening here, for a wide array of businesses.

And by the time these measures come in to place there may not be much choice of vaccine available - so I'd suggest getting it asap if you have a preference, once BioNTech is available again.

[zerg8]

I wrote in another thread on this topic (https://geoexpat.com/forum/24/thread359738.html) a prediction just when vaccination was about to start, I might adjust the percentages downward a little bit now, but otherwise I think this still stands as my prediction:

My prediction is that HK will reach around 50% of population vaccinated by Sep-Oct and society will be going through the same cycles we experienced the past 6 months until then.

Around October time HK government will start to struggle because vaccine is available but people are not showing up at the rate they had done up until that point to get their jabs. In November when HK only reached 58% of the population and its clear that a certain portion of the population does not want to take any vaccine HK government gets into a tough situation. After 1 month of trying to push people to vaccinate and failing reaching more than 62%, HK opens up in December again basically telling people its their own choice to not be vaccinated and running the risk of becoming severely ill.

Hate to say this but even 50%+ with 2 doses vaccinated is already very ambitious target. With the general distrust of the government and misinformation running high, the younger crowd would be incentivized to do the opposite of whatever the government says; the very elderly (75+) would just flat out refuse to take the vaccine (for health or other reasons); and a certain faction of the pro-establishment crowd would be plagued by heresay coming from word-of-mouth or just general social media disinformation such as on WhatsApp and text messages chains. This would be the existential issue the government needs to solve.

Ironically it might end up to be the case where the expat crowd would have the highest vaccination rates in Hong Kong

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Well, it's just 9 more months till 2022 where magically everything will be back to normal, just like when 2020 became 2021.

There will probably be 2 more waves till then.

[hkaneshiro]

you need a carrot and stick approach without encroaching on freedoms. i mean its not realistic to force restaurant staff to all get vaccinated or to only go and eat indoors if you are vaccinated

but what is reasonable

carrot
- reduction / no quarantine
- no need wear masks and adhere to social distancing measures

stick
- if you get covid despite being eligible for vaccination, then you pay full charges or a fine (whatever they are... so there are no free riders)

or you let selfish behaviour take over -> start signalling you are looking to get herd immunity up in the community via infections or vaccinations -> your choice

obviously though there could be collateral damage (people who are ineligble to get vaccinated , young children, people with pre-existing conditions).

[chuckster007]

Another relaxing year with not much to do

2020 wasted siting on my arse
2021 there was hope but will be sitting on my arse again
Come on 2022

[chobochobo]

The long term effects of COVID19 on life in Hong Kong depends more on what's happening with COVID19 in the rest of the world, than what's actually happening in HK.