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Covid Bias, what and where is it?

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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    We're now over 2 months in from the UK govt 'expert' who predicted in the press another 30,000 total covid deaths in the UK (23rd Feb), which I stated simply would not happen as the trend line didn't allow it; so, time for a progress report:

    Deaths are counted as cumulative since 23 Feb (inclusive from 24th Feb).

    18th Jan: 39,249 in Hospital (Covid all time hospitalisation high point)

    23rd Feb:
    16,117 in Hospital / 548 deaths (w.covid) that day / 1,991 additional deaths in first week to Mar 02

    23rd Mar: 5,150 in Hospital / 365 deaths (with covid) that day / total deaths 4,979 (c. since 23 Feb) / 594 additional deaths in week to 23rd Mar

    23rd April: 1,745 in Hospital / 153 deaths (w.covid) that day / total deaths 6,063 (c. since 23 Feb) /
    127 additional deaths in week to 27th Apr

    So in the first month since the ‘experts’ 30k claim, there was 4,979 deaths
    In the 2nd month since their ‘expert’ claim, there was 1,084 deaths (with covid), which is an April month average of 250 deaths per week. But as with every single week before that, the number of deaths has continued to collapse.

    Last week of Feb: 1,991 deaths
    Last week of Mar: 386 deaths
    Last week of Apr: 127 deaths

    At this rate we might expect to see another 60 deaths per week in May, keeping the total still under 6,500 by the summer.

    How many more UK covid deaths can one reasonably expect after that @hullexile?

    30K was always 'expert' scaremongering and another example of media covid bias.
    Can you show me the article where the expert predicted there would be 30,000 more deaths?

    Your inability to understand data is evident yet again. Racists tend to have blinkers, it keeps their worldview believable to them.

    Your dislike of experts is directly correlated to you being wrong.
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  2. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Can you show me the article where the expert predicted there would be 30,000 more deaths?

    Your inability to understand data is evident yet again. Racists tend to have blinkers, it keeps their worldview believable to them.

    Your dislike of experts is directly correlated to you being wrong.
    Ha ha, Great reply!

    You posted it and now you miraculously can't find it? Quelle surprise.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...kdown-12226058

  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Ha ha, Great reply!

    You posted it and now you miraculously can't find it? Quelle surprise.

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...kdown-12226058
    Ah right I thought so. So this is a model if restrictions were lifted. So since then have restrictions been lifted or was there a stricter lockdown? You really are very stupid.
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  4. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Ah right I thought so. So this is a model if restrictions were lifted. So since then have restrictions been lifted or was there a stricter lockdown? You really are very stupid.
    Hilarious!

    Even when I supply you the unequivocal facts, rather than being an adult and holding your hand up and admitting it looks like I'll be completely right (I know it's hard to swallow again) you resort to more mud slinging.

    It doesn't reflect well. You get that, right?

    I'll spell it out again.

    The minimum number of new deaths under the restriction relaxation plan (which is well underway currently) was claimed to be 30,000 by June 2022. The expected number (as per y.o.u.r article) from the 'experts' was 58,200.

    The Imperial College team - including Professor Neil Ferguson - warned that even a "gradual" lifting of restrictions could result in a "substantial additional number of deaths", with an estimated 58,200 fatalities by June 2022.


    For "Gradual" lifting of restrictions (MORE GRADUAL than has actually occurred) The Imperial College considered primary schools returning on 8 March, with all schools on 5 April. This would be followed by tier 3-like restrictions from 3 May, tier 2 restrictions from 7 June and tier 1 from 5 July, before all restrictions were lifted from 2 August.

    It said under this scenario, 58,200 COVID deaths were predicted (with a credible interval of 31,000 deaths to 95,300)
    In reality, the government has announced all schools in England will reopen (Have reopened) on 8 March, with some outdoor restrictions lifted by 29 March, and the next step will be to reopen beer gardens and hairdressers in England from 12 April at the earliest.
    If uploading attachments/Images starts working again I'll even supply you the actual report that the article came from to prove to everyone on Geo that it's not just the press scaremongering, it's also a significant chunk of your hallowed experts.

    ALL of their predictions in their summary that focus on relative numbers of hospitalisation and/or deaths are now, after only 2 months, being shown to be absolute bollocks - not even close to the truth.

    So @hullexile, using your fine fine intellect, which as you have stated is vastly superior to my own, perhaps you'd like to demonstrate how we're going to get to 52K more UK deaths in 13 months?

    Or.....you could just admit that it appears their estimates were massively overly pessimistic.

    Your choice.

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Hilarious!

    Even when I supply you the unequivocal facts, rather than being an adult and holding your hand up and admitting it looks like I'll be completely right (I know it's hard to swallow again) you resort to more mud slinging.

    It doesn't reflect well. You get that, right?

    I'll spell it out again.

    The minimum number of new deaths under the restriction relaxation plan (which is well underway currently) was claimed to be 30,000 by June 2022. The expected number (as per y.o.u.r article) from the 'experts' was 58,200.







    If uploading attachments/Images starts working again I'll even supply you the actual report that the article came from to prove to everyone on Geo that it's not just the press scaremongering, it's also a significant chunk of your hallowed experts.

    ALL of their predictions in their summary that focus on relative numbers of hospitalisation and/or deaths are now, after only 2 months, being shown to be absolute bollocks - not even close to the truth.

    So @hullexile, using your fine fine intellect, which as you have stated is vastly superior to my own, perhaps you'd like to demonstrate how we're going to get to 52K more UK deaths in 13 months?

    Or.....you could just admit that it appears their estimates were massively overly pessimistic.

    Your choice.
    Experts don't always get estimates correct. That is why they are estimates. Armchair experts get it wrong more often.

    We are into May, so I assume the restrictions in the UK are all lifted and life is back to normal?

    I assume that global case numbers have fallen? I assume global death numbers have fallen?

    Anyone who attacks experts as a group is clearly Trump level mad. As well as being Trump level racist and sexist.
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  6. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Experts don't always get estimates correct.
    I attack their bullshit arguments - you're the one who's attacking the messenger.

    But thanks for acknowledging the truth about how much lower deaths and hospitalisations are than the scare-mongering was claiming - These are important moments in fighting disinformation.

  7. #47

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    So I was intrigued and looked at the actual document, and not just the Sky News story. There's a link in the article.

    The forecast of 58k deaths is based on lifting of restrictions to Tier-1 by 11 May. This date hasn't yet happened.
    Furthermore the prediction is for total number of deaths by June 2022. This end date also, as you might realise, hasn't happened.

    And, if you are looking at how the numbers increase, based on the assumptions of lifting to Tier 1 restrictions on 27 April (which didn't happen) they would expect deaths to keep falling and then resume increasing around the end of May, with a peak around October. Those two dates are also sometime in the future.

    Maybe it is a bit premature to judge how accurate the models have been, given they are still making forecasts about dates that are still in the future.

    Last edited by greenmark; 03-05-2021 at 03:28 PM.
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  8. #48

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    I attack their bullshit arguments - you're the one who's attacking the messenger.

    But thanks for acknowledging the truth about how much lower deaths and hospitalisations are than the scare-mongering was claiming - These are important moments in fighting disinformation.
    I think your problem, or at least one of them, is that you have invested too much personally in this. It is as if your very identity is given by your covid argument. You therefore are unable to acknowledge other views or admit when you are wrong because that would make your life meaningless.

    And it is yet to be proven as disinformation.

    I mean this literally, get a life. It really helps your mental health when you realise it doesn't matter or change anything if you are right or wrong on a forum on the internet. Today I spent with my wife and kids, much more important than a silly and pointless discussion with a racist who gets angry when people focus on the suffering in India.

    Back on ignore.
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  9. #49

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    I have no clue whats going on here ... do we really need this thread?

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