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What will HK be like when the smoke clears?

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    US has a travel advisory on HK still, warning about the NSL and arbitrary arrest. I don't imagine that will be lifted after the worse of the pandemic is over. So I guess there will be no or at least far fewer US tourists compared to pre-2019.

    Maybe not a whole lot of difference given the fact US tourists were never the biggest source of foreign visitors. Question is, what about other foreign tourists? Asian regional tourists (i.e. Japanese, Korean, Singaporean, Malaysians, etc) might still come. Europeans...I don't know to be honest. Taiwanese tourists...probably will decline given the worsening state of HK-Taiwan relations.
    The US issuing travel advisories really is no measure. I get such warnings if I go on business trips to Tokyo! I don't recall getting one when I visited our US offices on business though. Should have been a copious amounts of mayo and other unnecessary crap in your deli order (but you can opt out).warning together with a tasty knife and gun culture.

    As for HK it will just be slightly more shades of Mother than before Covid, before the NSL and before the umbrellas and an expat forum full of people moaning about their lot but doing nothing about leaving (because the money's good you know!) and at some point Sage will be telling us how right he was on anti mask wearing stance

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeByeEngland:
    The US issuing travel advisories really is no measure. I get such warnings if I go on business trips to Tokyo! I don't recall getting one when I visited our US offices on business though. Should have been a copious amounts of mayo and other unnecessary crap in your deli order (but you can opt out).warning together with a tasty knife and gun culture.
    Does a warning like this affect the availability of travel insurance for tourists? That's the obvious way it would have an effect on numbers, if relevant.
    Coolboy likes this.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeByeEngland:
    The US issuing travel advisories really is no measure. I get such warnings if I go on business trips to Tokyo! I don't recall getting one when I visited our US offices on business though. Should have been a copious amounts of mayo and other unnecessary crap in your deli order (but you can opt out).warning together with a tasty knife and gun culture.

    As for HK it will just be slightly more shades of Mother than before Covid, before the NSL and before the umbrellas and an expat forum full of people moaning about their lot but doing nothing about leaving (because the money's good you know!) and at some point Sage will be telling us how right he was on anti mask wearing stance
    Depends...some US travel advisories are more...impactful than others.

  4. #14

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    I think it’s better to not have many mainlanders going to HK. So what….HK can turn into a Shenzhen. I see that the only reason for HK Chinese to want the mainlanders to come in is to get their money. Outside of that stay away.


  5. #15

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    1. The much famed night-life has of pre-2012 will never ever come back

    2. Face masks will be a thing. Plastic surgery and Botox injections will also rise faster than the aging demographic

    3. Hong Kong will continue to bleed expats from countries it traditionally had strong ties with

    4. Food quality will continue to decline

    5. Birth rates will continue to decline

    6. Marriage rates will continue to decline

    7. Gentrification will be forced on the most dilapidated areas of the island and Mong Kok. DINK couples will continue to pay out their noses for the opportunity to live lavishly in 500 sqft apartments - even poodles have more space than this in an NYC apartment!!!

    8. The best looking people “drain” will truly show


  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by GlennBond:
    I think it’s better to not have many mainlanders going to HK. So what….HK can turn into a Shenzhen. I see that the only reason for HK Chinese to want the mainlanders to come in is to get their money. Outside of that stay away.
    What makes you think the average HKer have any say over how, who or how many mainlanders come to HK? Before 2019, they might have just a...little. Now? Zilch. Whatever Beijing commands, Carrie Lam obeys.
    Gatts and aw451 like this.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by DimSumBond:
    8. The best looking people “drain” will truly show
    Did I mention that I know a female WASP who you would get on with perfectly? And she has sisters

  8. #18

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    The ppl that cannot leave (grassroots) may introduce a different factor to the idea that HK can continue as it is into the future.

    Tycoons who didn't follow Li cashing out of China will suffer dearly as mainland SOEs move in looking for foreign liquidity to keep rolling their debts over.


  9. #19

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    The HKers, who have always been second to foreigners, become second to mainlanders (even more). Civil unrest is triggered again, National Security Law is extended to promote domestic security.

    The tax paying population starts to decrease leaving a massive hole in the city's tax base, the government are forced to stop bribing the grassroots with public housing and increase their tax base. They already hinted at that in this year's budget.


    Disclaimer: speculative fiction

    Last edited by aw451; 31-05-2021 at 07:32 PM.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by GentleGeorge:
    Guessing lower levels of international and mainland tourism. Guessing still a very significant port and Hub for international finance and business, still with a large contingent of international expats here and low low tax rates. But mainlanders choosing Shenzhen preferentially for work more and more, and HK looking like a slightly shabby version of Shenzhen to mainland tourists.
    I don't know Shenzhen well - just visited as a tourist 3 times. However, I get the feeling that Hong Kong has the potential to be a far better tourist destination for mainlanders and international ones.