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What will HK be like when the smoke clears?

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  1. #1

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    What will HK be like when the smoke clears?

    We're about a week away from the anniversary of the start of Hong Kong's most tumultuous period since 1945. Assuming a) the days of mass street protests, tear gas barrages, violence/arson/etc. are over, b) the political tightening will continue, restrictions of freedom of speech, assembly, press, opposition will continue at a faster or slower pace and c) one way or another, the pandemic restrictions go away, through vaccination, brute force or just outlasting the bugger...

    What will Hong Kong look like in a year or two or five, when the smoke clears? Will the mainland 'tourists' ever return? Will other Asian/global tourists come in large numbers? Will significant numbers of locals, expats, international companies leave - enough to have a noticeable effect? Will property prices keep rising? Will Disney and Ocean Park both survive?

    I'm thinking in practical terms, not political - obviously politics plays into this, but more day-to-day, month-to-month...


  2. #2

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    I began to type something, but in the end my best answer is 'who knows'?

    shri, sawtelle, rs4 and 7 others like this.

  3. #3

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    Guessing lower levels of international and mainland tourism. Guessing still a very significant port and Hub for international finance and business, still with a large contingent of international expats here and low low tax rates. But mainlanders choosing Shenzhen preferentially for work more and more, and HK looking like a slightly shabby version of Shenzhen to mainland tourists.

    tf19 likes this.

  4. #4

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    If Mainland reduce the Q for anyone coming in from HK, i am sure the mainlanders will come to hk... and quite a lot of them..
    might not be exactly the ones that everyone ideally wants (i.e. spending power, quality, etc).. but just look at the huge crowd of people travelling in china during the golden weeks.. i.e. they just need to find somewhere to go and spend some money.

    same if China opens up to HKer i am sure half the hk city dwellers will be flooding SZ and DG and GZ.. just to get out of this place.


  5. #5

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    Mainland will come in with their suitcases and grab all the baby milk they can.

    Some clashes between government and 'yellows'.

    Everyone still being stubborn and selfish.

    angeluscomplex likes this.

  6. #6

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    US has a travel advisory on HK still, warning about the NSL and arbitrary arrest. I don't imagine that will be lifted after the worse of the pandemic is over. So I guess there will be no or at least far fewer US tourists compared to pre-2019.

    Maybe not a whole lot of difference given the fact US tourists were never the biggest source of foreign visitors. Question is, what about other foreign tourists? Asian regional tourists (i.e. Japanese, Korean, Singaporean, Malaysians, etc) might still come. Europeans...I don't know to be honest. Taiwanese tourists...probably will decline given the worsening state of HK-Taiwan relations.


  7. #7

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    I think there will still be international tourists. Do you remember your first visit to Hong Kong, the skyline?


  8. #8

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    Some expats will leave and will be replaced by mainland talent.
    Mainland visitors will continue to come and will continue to push up flat prices by buying flats they leave empty.
    International visitors will continue to come because they want to see a bit of China but China is getting riskier.
    Less English will be spoken; more mandarin.
    Some resistance will continue, probably in ways that are hard for an outsider to spot.
    On the surface, HK will be "back to normal". Underneath it;s soul will be dying and in 10 years it will be just another mainland city.


  9. #9

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    10 years from now...
    - tycoons will continue to be king and 90 cents on the dollar will flow into the pockets of the likes of Jardine Matheson
    - people will continue to be rude/cold to strangers
    - expats will continue to bitch about the weather and locals, host friday night HH's at Peel street, and get wasted on junk boats on the weekends
    - the HK gov't will continue to hold the interest of their stakeholders (e.g., the tycoons) above the people

    stretch goals:
    - better economic integration with the GBA and more prominence in science and technology (although I'm not pinning my financial future on this happening)

    GentleGeorge likes this.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by tf19:
    10 years from now...
    - tycoons will continue to be king and 90 cents on the dollar will flow into the pockets of the likes of Jardine Matheson
    While I am not entirely writing off the British Hongs.. I don't think they have a significant part to play in the future of HK or China.
    spode, TheBrit, Rob2020 and 1 others like this.

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