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HKU: Use of patriotic vaccines raises herd immunity threshold to 142% of pop vaccinated

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  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by binance345:
    By the time the vaccination rate for the elderly is high enough, it will be half a year or more from now, and we will see how the experiments in other parts of the world progress before we think about it.
    This timeframe seems very unrealistic given that less then 20% is vaccinated after what, 7 months of vaccinations available for the elderly. Also vaccination rates are not really relevant since the government is under orders of only aiming to open up with the mainland, and is tied to any opening up policies of China itself, which is most probably years away if they continue zero covid policy.
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  2. #32

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    Original Post Deleted
    The statistics do communicate it very clearly if you opt to look at the right ones.

    The blinkered quoting case numbers without the context of hospitalisations and deaths (and details of who those are and what comorbities they’re suffering from) really need to be shot down as charlatans.
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  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by binance345:
    Much of this is based on the current situation and some optimistic assumptions: that even if a new variant of the virus will continue to emerge, its virulence will not increase significantly and the vaccine will still be effective in suppressing it.

    This optimistic assumption is based on subconscious projections of previous influenza pandemics. So the question we have to ask is whether these assumptions are realistic.

    The pattern of most influenza pandemics is that as the virus becomes widespread in a large population, it gradually becomes less virulent and evolves into a normal flu. Even when variants do occur, they are rarely more lethal.

    This pattern is clearly different from that of covid-19. Not to mention that coronaviruses are different from influenza viruses, it is difficult to draw an exact analogy between the pattern of influenza pandemics and that of coronaviruses. Even when compared to the SARS in 2003, covid19 is very different. the lethality and infectivity of SARS was gradually declining, but we are not seeing this phenomenon with covid19 yet. On the contrary, the more lethal and more infectious delta and lambda have emerged.

    In fact, these unusual phenomena are already a warning sign. There are many unknowns here, and the origin of the virus is still unclear, whether it is a natural product or an artificially modified laboratory product. If it is man-made, what it will eventually evolve into is also a big question.

    In the face of so many unknowns, we see the fact that the virus is getting stronger. Recently, experts have begun to suggest that the mrna vaccine has the potential to increase the resistance of the virus, thus accelerating its mutation.

    Don't get me wrong, I strongly agree with the need for universal vaccination. But what I want to point out is that to continue to encourage the widespread spread of this unusual virus after a large number of people have been vaccinated with the new technology is an unprecedented human experiment, and I think it is a very interesting experiment, but also a gamble for all of humanity.

    As for the question what is my solution, I think the right question should be what is the right thing to do. I don't think anyone can fully provide a definitive right answer right now. Many times what you think is right, you will see a year later how narrow your thinking was at the time. What I can say is that I'm very happy to see different countries taking different approaches and different steps. Because as the pandemic evolves, we will be able to verify in reality what direction we can take to deal with the changes in the virus.

    As for Hong Kong, given the very low vaccination rate in the elderly population, it is unrealistic to talk about opening the gates in Hong Kong right now to coexist with the virus. By the time the vaccination rate for the elderly is high enough, it will be half a year or more from now, and we will see how the experiments in other parts of the world progress before we think about it.
    To me this reminiscent of head in the sand thinking, focussing far too much effort on the risk on your radar without giving any real thought to all the other black swan events that may occur.

    The point being, of course we don’t know everything, we never will.... so fuck? Life goes on deal with the situation now with the resources and information available and get on with it, anticipate further outbreaks so keep developing vaccines in case they are needed and stop all the pitiful hand ringing.

    But what if people die?!? Well there’ll be less people.....
    And?

    So stop fretting over scenarios impossible to predict to the nth degree of accuracy and make hay whilst the sunshines.

    At this moment on the space-time continuum, the only pandemic I can see is a widespread mass fear of the unknown, get over it, seriously

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by binance345:
    Much of this is based on the current situation and some optimistic assumptions: that even if a new variant of the virus will continue to emerge, its virulence will not increase significantly and the vaccine will still be effective in suppressing it.

    This optimistic assumption is based on subconscious projections of previous influenza pandemics. So the question we have to ask is whether these assumptions are realistic.

    The pattern of most influenza pandemics is that as the virus becomes widespread in a large population, it gradually becomes less virulent and evolves into a normal flu. Even when variants do occur, they are rarely more lethal.

    This pattern is clearly different from that of covid-19. Not to mention that coronaviruses are different from influenza viruses, it is difficult to draw an exact analogy between the pattern of influenza pandemics and that of coronaviruses. Even when compared to the SARS in 2003, covid19 is very different. the lethality and infectivity of SARS was gradually declining, but we are not seeing this phenomenon with covid19 yet. On the contrary, the more lethal and more infectious delta and lambda have emerged.

    In fact, these unusual phenomena are already a warning sign. There are many unknowns here, and the origin of the virus is still unclear, whether it is a natural product or an artificially modified laboratory product. If it is man-made, what it will eventually evolve into is also a big question.

    In the face of so many unknowns, we see the fact that the virus is getting stronger. Recently, experts have begun to suggest that the mrna vaccine has the potential to increase the resistance of the virus, thus accelerating its mutation.

    Don't get me wrong, I strongly agree with the need for universal vaccination. But what I want to point out is that to continue to encourage the widespread spread of this unusual virus after a large number of people have been vaccinated with the new technology is an unprecedented human experiment, and I think it is a very interesting experiment, but also a gamble for all of humanity.

    As for the question what is my solution, I think the right question should be what is the right thing to do. I don't think anyone can fully provide a definitive right answer right now. Many times what you think is right, you will see a year later how narrow your thinking was at the time. What I can say is that I'm very happy to see different countries taking different approaches and different steps. Because as the pandemic evolves, we will be able to verify in reality what direction we can take to deal with the changes in the virus.

    As for Hong Kong, given the very low vaccination rate in the elderly population, it is unrealistic to talk about opening the gates in Hong Kong right now to coexist with the virus. By the time the vaccination rate for the elderly is high enough, it will be half a year or more from now, and we will see how the experiments in other parts of the world progress before we think about it.
    Vaccination is the only path to a more normalized world however it is clear that it will not be enough on its own and that other mitigation measures will continue to be needed for a long time to reduce the number of infections, the strain on health care and the risk of mutation onto other variants. In my opinion, there are far too many that are in a rush to end something that likely won't have an end basically acting like mindless bulls in a China shop.

    It will be interesting to see what the fall and winter will bring to countries that have opened up more. Medical experts are predicting record numbers of cases in Canada where vaccination rate is excellent. If the health care system can take the strain with some mitigation measures and casualties are reasonable, it could show the path but it is absolutely an experiment on people without knowing the result. It's not surprising that countries are not all jumping in. Last summer reopening had some fairly severe consequences, we'll have to see what happens in the next few months to see to what extent mitigation measures need to be kept in place in order to function closer to normal.
    binance345 likes this.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    To me this reminiscent of head in the sand thinking, focussing far too much effort on the risk on your radar without giving any real thought to all the other black swan events that may occur.

    The point being, of course we don’t know everything, we never will.... so fuck? Life goes on deal with the situation now with the resources and information available and get on with it, anticipate further outbreaks so keep developing vaccines in case they are needed and stop all the pitiful hand ringing.

    But what if people die?!? Well there’ll be less people.....
    And?

    So stop fretting over scenarios impossible to predict to the nth degree of accuracy and make hay whilst the sunshines.

    At this moment on the space-time continuum, the only pandemic I can see is a widespread mass fear of the unknown, get over it, seriously
    Among the many unknowns, we do know the fact that the virus is getting stronger, but many people are deliberately downplaying or even ignoring it. Using incomplete science and paranoid selective thinking to blindly convince the world is the right way to go.

    Substantial data and studies are warning that allowing the virus to spread uncontrollably in large numbers of inoculated populations is in fact producing more powerful mutant viruses.
    https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...ion-model.html
    Mathematical simulation models show that vaccine-resistant coronavirus mutants are more likely to emerge when a large fraction of the population is vaccinated and viral transmission is high. The scientists suggest that the best way to snuff out vaccine-resistant mutants before they spread is to get shots in arms as quickly as possible, while also keeping viral transmission low. The researchers found; in their model, they assume low transmission rates reflect the adoption of behavioral measures like masking and social distancing.

    Of course this advice is obviously not well received by many countries and their political leaders. The reality we see is more of a political and economic decision than a truly scientific one. Of course I would be happy to see the largest experiment in the history of the world and the interesting process of creating a new variant of the virus.
    Last edited by binance345; 29-08-2021 at 04:13 AM.

  6. #36

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    Original Post Deleted
    The statistics tend to show what you want to read into them. Do countries that lack the infrastructure or have an iron grip on information report cases accurately?

    At this stage fewer transmissions is perhaps a sensible goal for vaccines going forward to reduce the risk of a more deadly mutations forming. That would take the powers that be setting a date to withdraw the less effective vaccines.

  7. #37

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    oh dear, what a train wreck this is shaping out to be

    there are those who are staunchly for or against vaccinations, but even if you're on the same side of the issue, it's for radically different reasons

    there are those who are staunchly for or against lockdowns, but even if you're on the same side of the issue, it's for radically different reasons

    there are those who are staunchly for or against being fearful, but even if you're on the same side of the issue, it's for radically different reasons

    my hunch is that confusion will reign until if the source of the virus is determined. and that's a BIG if....


  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    The statistics tend to show what you want to read into them. Do countries that lack the infrastructure or have an iron grip on information report cases accurately?

    At this stage fewer transmissions is perhaps a sensible goal for vaccines going forward to reduce the risk of a more deadly mutations forming. That would take the powers that be setting a date to withdraw the less effective vaccines.
    I would suggest 2200 when the poor countries get enough vaccines. By then of course we will have had several thousand new mutations so who knows what vaccines will be effective.

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I would suggest 2200 when the poor countries get enough vaccines. By then of course we will have had several thousand new mutations so who knows what vaccines will be effective.
    Again I would equate vaccines with refrigerators. The world didn't stop producing enough fridges when quality standards were raised. With lower quality products flooding the market it is up to regulators to regulate. The plants making one brand could be repurposed to make a a better one given sufficient notice. It is not a capacity issue it is regulatory issue.

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Again I would equate vaccines with refrigerators. The world didn't stop producing enough fridges when quality standards were raised. With lower quality products flooding the market it is up to regulators to regulate. The plants making one brand could be repurposed to make a a better one given sufficient notice. It is not a capacity issue it is regulatory issue.
    Ok if you say so, no difference between fridges and vaccines. So we are a year in yet the market has completely failed to supply what you would term effective vaccines. Are Pfizer and Moderna inefficient or in the pocket of the Chinese? Why can't they supply the orders? Why can't they supply a vaccine that can actually be used by poor countries without the impossible temperature requirements?

    So I say 2200 when do you think the non mRNA vaccines can be eliminated?