Has Hong Kong adopted the wrong COVID-19 strategy?

[Cheeky Kiwi]

based on HKU modelling it'll be down to 100 cases a day by april and 70% of the pop would have had it

[mucaari]

I will say one thing.

This is very much third hand information... but...

Someone I know who had a meeting with someone high up in government told someone else I know that this summer things are going to be very different from now and that quarantine will be reduced.

It isn't much for anyone here to trust but the people involved wouldn't lie to each other. Anyway. There's nothing we can do except suck it up.

I guess we can only wonder if this is true or not. Nonetheless it starts to appear like that. The chinese expert was telling HK needs to find a balance between being a global financial center and protecting the health or sth like that. Suddenly opening up hair salon, with the reason that there is a public need for these services - no shit sherlock. Regina talking about opening up golf courses. Today Carrie saying that they have a plan to open up, though don't talk about it yet.

I have the feeling we will do the mass test in April, there will be a bit more repressive measures, suddenly somehow covid has largely disappeared, or at least deaths reduced. Then on July 1 Xi will visit and declare the global financial center to be opened again thanks to the great national support.

[mucaari]

I have a shred of hope quarantine will be reduced to one week.

Well this is not largely different from today, as you claim from your previous post. At least if it means still having the hassle of booking a hotel etc. It still would not make frequent travel feasible.

[Giggsy]

based on HKU modelling it'll be down to 100 cases a day by april and 70% of the pop would have had it

That would be amazing by April. But not sure how accurate that figure would be considering whats happened in SG, Tokyo, South Korea etc. South korea is still going up exponentially.

Tokyo and SG are only just starting to see their curve "flatten".

Seems like we're only at the beginning. Hopefully we get everyone vaccinated and reduce the death rate dramatically.

[merchantms]

(Covid decisions are already made from operations established in Shenzhen)

You prefer the decision making that’s been happening here?

Prof Liang is the only person who’s made sensible comments in 2 years. I’m as shocked as the next person.

[hullexile]

That would be amazing by April. But not sure how accurate that figure would be considering whats happened in SG, Tokyo, South Korea etc. South korea is still going up exponentially.

Tokyo and SG are only just starting to see their curve "flatten".

Seems like we're only at the beginning. Hopefully we get everyone vaccinated and reduce the death rate dramatically.

I have shown this several times before. Daily cases in the omicron wave in the Philippines. April is easily possible.

[njstone9]

https://www.otandp.com/blog/how-did-...hong-kong?s=08

[Edwardstorm]

I have shown this several times before. Daily cases in the omicron wave in the Philippines. April is easily possible.

I doubt these numbers are accurate though... Portugal peaked at almost the same time as PH with omicron (60.000) daily cases on January 31st for a few days.... and while the peak has passed we are still seeing anywhere between 5.000 to 15.000 daily cases for the last weeks. Sure, hospitalisations are almost below 1.000 (and 43 death per million people last two weeks) but if you have the same trend in Hong Kong there would still be way too many people to isolate.

And in Portugal almost 100% of the entire population is both vaccinated and boosted (boosted only over 18´s) . I am guessing the numbers are still high here because people test (free in pharmacy 4x a month) and report when they test positive. Guessing in PH there is less testing and therefore it seems to have gone back to zero. In Hong Kong sensible people will not report self tests (so the numbers are appearing to go down now) but wait till they introduce mandatory testing in April, the authorities will be in for a major shock as the numbers will surpass the available isolation capacity. (asides from the lunatic idea to do this to begin with)

[Sage]

I doubt these numbers are accurate though... Portugal peaked at almost the same time as PH with omicron (60.000) daily cases on January 31st for a few days.... and while the peak has passed we are still seeing anywhere between 5.000 to 15.000 daily cases for the last weeks. Sure, hospitalisations are almost below 1.000 (and 43 death per million people last two weeks) but if you have the same trend in Hong Kong there would still be way too many people to isolate.

And in Portugal almost 100% of the entire population is both vaccinated and boosted (boosted only over 18´s) . I am guessing the numbers are still high here because people test (free in pharmacy 4x a month) and report when they test positive. Guessing in PH there is less testing and therefore it seems to have gone back to zero. In Hong Kong sensible people will not report self tests (so the numbers are appearing to go down now) but wait till they introduce mandatory testing in April, the authorities will be in for a major shock as the numbers will surpass the available isolation capacity. (asides from the lunatic idea to do this to begin with)

Agreed, The Philippines is a shitty yardstick by which to measure anything accurately which is one of the basis for me rejecting Hull's predictions about the longevity of the HK outbreak.

[mucaari]

https://www.otandp.com/blog/how-did-...hong-kong?s=08

One thing standing in the way: politics!