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Has Hong Kong adopted the wrong COVID-19 strategy?

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  1. #731

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Oh dear, 'eradication' is your term. Nowhere did I use it or imply it.

    You clearly understand the difference between eradication and breaking transmission chains, so therefore you're just trying to justify why you thought the herd was a herd of hospitals?
    Again. Measles. Herd immunity has been talked about for a very long time. Even great vaccines can't break ALL chains of transmission it breaks most. Measles vaccines ~95% effective at breaking the chain not completely effective. It is about risk reduction not a complete break (eradication) of chains of transmission.

  2. #732

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Again. Measles. Herd immunity has been talked about for a very long time. Even great vaccines can't break ALL chains of transmission it breaks most. Measles vaccines ~95% effective at breaking the chain not completely effective. It is about risk reduction not a complete break (eradication) of chains of transmission.
    In reality, yes I agree, but what has been used in HK's context is protection of the elderly who are not vaxxed and it has been repeated many many times globally as the primary objective of herd immunity - to protect those vulnerable from transmission, not to preserve the hospitals that serve those vulnerable, that's a later addition.

    But the reality for covid is that transmission doesn't cease in ANY population that contains anyone without 'immunity' unless that individual remains isolated.

    This is not herd immunity at work, this is isolation at work. Immunity without isolation is the untruth, it is that idea that HK people have been holding onto and it is that idea being addressed in NJStones post and in my comment that it was always unachievable........ not your goal posted shifted version of hospitals being spared stress tests.

    From the article in question: Essentially the author and I are making the same point.
    One fundamental error over the last year was a focus on herd immunity as the primary goal of vaccination. Government medical experts (predominantly hospital rather than public health specialists) and media pushed the herd immunity narrative long after the science clearly showed that increasing transmissibility of variants made herd immunity impossible by vaccination alone.

  3. #733

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    In reality, yes I agree, but what has been used in HK's context is protection of the elderly who are not vaxxed and it has been repeated many many times globally as the primary objective of herd immunity - to protect those vulnerable from transmission, not to preserve the hospitals that serve those vulnerable, that's a later addition.

    But the reality for covid is that transmission doesn't cease in ANY population that contains anyone without 'immunity' unless that individual remains isolated.

    This is not herd immunity at work, this is isolation at work. Immunity without isolation is the untruth, it is that idea that HK people have been holding onto and it is that idea being addressed in NJStones post and in my comment that it was always unachievable........ not your goal posted shifted version of hospitals being spared stress tests.

    From the article in question: Essentially the author and I are making the same point.
    Herd immunity was sold as an alternative to covid being endemic; not that covid would be endemic whilst a nebulous definition of herd immunity would also be achieved.

  4. #734

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    Herd immunity was sold as an alternative to covid being endemic; not that covid would be endemic whilst a nebulous definition of herd immunity would also be achieved.
    Perhaps that's what you thought you were buying but it is not was being sold.

  5. #735

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    Perhaps that's what you thought you were buying but it is not was being sold.
    Incorrect, there was ample comment and content in the press about herd immunity specifically being desirable to insulate the vulnerable who can’t get vaxxed.

    Immunity is a function of living organisms not hospitals.

    A side benefit may well be reduced strain on hospitals, just like other benefits include, hairdressers and bars and sports centres being open, better job prospects, un restricted foreign travel, no mass testing, no insufferable press conferences by twats, not having to endure the site of paranoid idiots wearing 3 masks. Etc etc.

    But funnily enough hospitals aren’t even mentioned in all the links I sent you defining herd immunity that predate Covid.

    Game over.

  6. #736

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    In reality, yes I agree, but what has been used in HK's context is protection of the elderly who are not vaxxed and it has been repeated many many times globally as the primary objective of herd immunity - to protect those vulnerable from transmission, not to preserve the hospitals that serve those vulnerable, that's a later addition.
    I believe it has always been about flattening the curve and I don't ever recall reading anyone suggesting vaccination would completely protect anything. There is a long list of diseases where vaccines have reduced transmission and reduced the effect of the disease. There is an extremely short list of diseases that have removed the risk of transmission. It is not clear why you keep suggesting this new un-kown disease what not follow the 100's of years experience humans have with vaccines. I have not seen anyone state vaccines would remove risk. Vaccines have enabled societies to function and not put catastrophic stress on health care systems which could only be done by lock downs previoulsy.


    https://www.makatimed.net.ph/blogs/8...ported%20again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    But the reality for covid is that transmission doesn't cease in ANY population that contains anyone without 'immunity' unless that individual remains isolated.
    Does anyone suggest it does? Even measles which has a great vaccine transmission still occurs in a fully vaccinated society. Why do you think Covid would be different from the many many other diseases out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sage:
    This is not herd immunity at work, this is isolation at work. Immunity without isolation is the untruth, it is that idea that HK people have been holding onto and it is that idea being addressed in NJStones post and in my comment that it was always unachievable........ not your goal posted shifted version of hospitals being spared stress tests.
    Isolation works at reducing transmission risk. The better the isolation the lower the risk. Again thinking in absolute terms is very wrong headed. I am not aware of any hermits who have no contact with anyone else in the last 2 years. Are you? If not surely you agree isolation is a relative term to reduce transmission not stop it.

    Below is a study of vaccines in action in care homes. Vaccinated people transmitted less killing fewer of their co-habitants than their unvaccinated neighbours.

    https://scitechdaily.com/why-do-we-c...ed-care-homes/

    Thinking in absolute terms when all evidence, data and pronouncements have been about risk reduction is an odd approach.

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  10. #740

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    This cumulative death per million graph looks interesting to me. Shows HK doing so well for so long, before the shit finally hit the fan in just the last month, a complete 90 degree turn upwards, a perfect example of what not flattening the curve looks like.

    But still, looking at the bigger picture, HK has a chance to come out of the current mess still a lot better than many other countries, if that graph doesnt keep going up for too much longer.

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