23rd Jan - More cases from Kwai Chung Estate

[MatthieuTofu]

https://twitter.com/tripperhead/stat...71254206545923

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Only if the other buildings have 100+ cases

And all asymtomatic

Then that’s the start of a proper tsunami

[shri]

I think the 170 number is cumulative and not a total.

Singtao has the daily number as

Zhang Zhujun said that there were 140 new confirmed cases in Hong Kong today, 15 of which were imported cases, and the remaining 125 were local cases.

[MatthieuTofu]

Confirmed cases:
https://twitter.com/tripperhead/stat...75256763736064

Subtract them from the prelims + confirmed:

• Yat Kwai House 126
• Ying Kwai House 41
• Nga Kwai House 2
• Hiu Kwai House 1
• Yuk Kwai House 1
• Chun Kwai House 1
• Chin Kwai House 1

And you end up by concluding that quite a few of the 100 prelim+ are likely from outside Kwai Chung Estate.

[shri]

HK01 has this summary...

Hong Kong has added 140 positive cases since yesterday (23rd), the fifth wave of new highs. Among them, 15 were imported cases, and the other 125 were locally infected. Among them, 94 cases were residents, friends or visitors of Yat Kwai House. There was also a person who bought hamsters at LITTLE BOSSS in Tung Choi Street on January 7. There are 4 source cases. The number of initial confirmed cases has reached more than 100.

I don't know if they me a that 94 of the local infections are from the Wah Kwai cluster..

[shri]

And the rthk summary.. Far less than what I thought it would be. My worst case scenario is about 700+ cases on Friday if the outbreak is widespread..

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...abChangeable=0

[dinosaurs88]

Yes, let's NOT lock down the entire estate because the numbers have not reached 100 yet !
Only lock down the other estates once we get to 100 because then we know it is serious.

This is insane. The estate shared cleaners. Meanwhile, people from the other blocks will just go travel on the mtr...spread it further and further....

First, expert says that the first block should all be quarantined but because not enough quarantine space, they can't do home quarantine immediately, so must wait a day. LOGIC ???

Then they quarantine a second building but said can't find food to deliver when HK has more restaurants per square inch than the rest of the world, and restauarants are dying because they can't do in dining after 6 pm.

left brain: people in lockdown need food
right brain: restauarant owners crying their eyes out cos no customers.

[Cheeky Kiwi]

1500+ Friday

MattTofu will buy you a beer if I’m wrong

[MatthieuTofu]

Edwin Tsui announcing different tiers of restrictions (no threshold):
Low-risk - encourage voluntary testing
high risk - CTN
very high risk - RTD (overnight lockdown)
clear outbreak - LTN (multiple day lockdown)

So the nightly CTN list will no longer include every single shop visited by cases (not that contact tracing can keep up anyway).

[shri]

1500+ Friday

Would not be surprised if that's the number....