Agree that if we were lining up for a summer time relaxation I'd be much more convinced. Now the masks are gone it seems likely this winter will see flu, plus covid, plus people freezing to death more than usual due to not being able to heat their homes. I think it's gonna be another bad bad winter for European health services, and Experts are gonna freak out.
But I'd take just being able to go to NZ, Japan, Singapore and other “clean” countries quarantine free if that's the next step on this ladder. Frankly I don't mind if I have to wear an arm band, ankle tag, high vis vest and flashing light for a week.
By then it might be too little, too late for the economy and standing as a world financial hub.
The timing of easing isn't just about public health though is it? It's about ensuring there is nothing that might create social instability prior to Xi's third term being confirmed - isn't it? (Although arguably continued failure of lockdowns to allow a return to normal life within the mainland borders could ultimately be as unstabilising as mass casualties of old people, or annoyance of mainlanders if they see HKers getting freedom to travel back before they do. Has the annoyance about open beaches here died down yet?).
The health secretary now seems to have said that a couple of thousand cases per day is acceptable as long as the number of daily cases isn't increasing... Zero Covid now seems to mean an R number of <1 rather than a reflection of case numbers... A few thousand cases a day will keep the immunity in HK ticking over until more opening up happens.
Also - have we seen much seasonality with Covid?