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Hong Kong Property Price

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  1. #21

    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    My flats on the market, but I havent pushed the agents very hard yet and I think they have only listed it on their internal databases, I havent kicked the tenant out yet which makes it hard to show potential buyers, I'm not in HK, and I've set the price a bit higher than market and need to drop it soon to be realistic I think. All these things going against me, I will probably become more serious to sell when I can actually jump on a flight to HK to sign papers and shit and not have to quarantine. Hopefully at the same time might be a bit more positivity around and I can jack up the price again

    One thing I'm glad I did was take out another tax loan with HSBC in March for $2m for 5 years, fixed interest rate of 1.7%. At this time, was slightly higher than my mortgage interest rate which was around 1.4%, but now since mortgage rates are rising fast and passed my tax loan rate, I've locked in a great rate for 5 years on a good chunk of this and dont need to take any risks, just put the cash from HSBC straight into my Standard Chartered mortgage offset account.

    qhank, tf19, Fatpigkenny and 1 others like this.

  2. #22

    Join Date
    Nov 2019
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    1,567

    Seller is probably desperate to sell.

    Already a few transactions c $11,500 psf

    https://hk.centanet.com/findproperty...6kqE5XgID2ijeA

    qhank likes this.

  3. #23

  4. #24

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    Aug 2013
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    The crash is happening - so aim to buy in 2024?


  5. #25

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    Dec 2002
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    薄扶林
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    Not a crash.. Like many things these days it's either a mirage or a slow moving train wreck.

    aw451 likes this.

  6. #26

    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    1,045
    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Not a crash.. Like many things these days it's either a mirage or a slow moving train wreck.
    Either way, its an optimistic opportunity for many who couldnt afford a home in the last 5-8 years.

    I wouldnt mind buying if theres a 30% adjustment in the near future. Given the interest rates are not off the charts...

    Btw, what is the mortgage rates in HK right now?

  7. #27

    Join Date
    May 2021
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    Quote Originally Posted by D.YU:
    Btw, what is the mortgage rates in HK right now?
    LMGFY

    https://www.mreferral.com/en/new-pro...owner&options=
    D.YU likes this.

  8. #28

    Join Date
    Jun 2018
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    1,082

    I think Goldman are misreading this a bit. It never ceases to amaze me how few people working in banks (who aren't HK mortgage holders) actually understand the product structure and capping.

    The four big banks all have a considerable surplus of deposits over lending... moving prime rates up generally therefore costs them money overall. Yes if savings rates go up less money will flow into more expensive time deposits, but by and large the revenue maximising approach is to suck up big losses on the mortgage book and more than make up for it by paying miserly rates to savers.

    Of course prime will move up somewhat, and that's already started, but I can't see it tracking up anywhere near as fast as HIBOR. Particularly when you add in the fact that a mortgage rate driven property crash falls back on the banks, who are already nursing heavy China real estate losses.

    traineeinvestor likes this.

  9. #29

    I've got no idea how much further HK property prices will fall. Neither does anyone else.

    Quite frankly, based on the deafening crescendos of "experts" declaring the sky is falling during previous bear markets, it would be reasonable to conclude that they louder they proclaim that Hong Kong is about to collapse the closer the market is to a bottom – but that may just be cynicism on my part.

    That said, there's plenty of reason to expect prices to fall further - population decline, rising interest rates, loss of confidence, strong currency and poor yields among others.

    On the other side of the coin, HKMA data continues to show HK property owners and most of the HK listed property players have low levels of debt / high levels of equity. Rising interest rates would (likely) disproportionatly affect new buyers rather than existing borrowers with banks building in higher stress tests on new loans.

    If the market starts to dry up, we could see a return to the years around the time of SARS when developers offered 25% second mortgages interest and payment free for 4 years. The other big lever if things get really bad is the HKSAR govt dropping the double stamp duty.

    There's also the reaction to the eventual re-opening of the border between HK and the rest of China. I'm not holding my breath as to when but it will happen sometime.

    At some point, there will be opportunities which I hope to take advantage of but IMHO we're some way away from that.

    GentleGeorge likes this.

  10. #30

    Join Date
    Oct 2010
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    23,432
    Quote Originally Posted by Peaky:
    The four big banks all have a considerable surplus of deposits over lending... moving prime rates up generally therefore costs them money overall.
    Which banks link their current or savings rate to prime?

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