Changes in HK demographics

[Gatts]

Hemlock making some great points about the bloomberg article:

The underlying story is one of migratory mismatch. Senior international corporate types have been declining in number (as have certain other demographics – see below), while the Hong Kong government is replacing them, via visas-for-talent schemes, with less skilled Mainlanders (some of whom are reportedly finding work selling insurance). Hence closures of many fancy restaurants and other businesses serving high-end clientele.

For really startling figures, see Joel Chan’s post with a chart showing the change in age groups in Hong Kong since mid-2017. The number of 70-79-year-olds is up 63% and 60-69s up 31%. The number of 30-39s is down 6.3%, 0-9s down 21.3% and 20-29s down an incredible 24.7%.

The big rise in elderly cohorts is presumably due to so many people in their 50s and 60s moving into the 60s and 70s brackets. The drop in those in their 20s and 30s must be largely due to emigration (plus some of the 30s lot moving into the 40s segment, which is up 1.8%). This would be even greater without Mainland arrivals, many of whom must be in the 20s and 30s groups. The fall in 0-9s would be a combination of emigration and a big fall in the birth rate during the last few years. A 2.4% rise in the 10-19 segment would (I guess) reflect the higher birth rates earlier this century. Plus, in both cases, there must be some 0-19s coming in with Mainland adults.

The drop in 20-29s is amazing – comparable to the loss of men in that age group in Germany or France due to World War 1. How big is the decline if you zero in on the college-educated ones? How does Hong Kong pay for the health and welfare of so many elders with far fewer people of working age paying tax? (That’s another thing: more than a few young Mainlanders planning to stay in Hong Kong also hope to bring their aging parents over – to enjoy the free health care.)

Basically with younger people generally less, less people will buy houses. With mainlanders replacing western expats driving down average salaries, and all other factors pointing at HK and Shenzhen average salaries more equalizing in years to come, HK property will have no way of moving back to the old highs.
https://www.biglychee.com/2024/11/26...lation-shifts/

[hullexile]

Hemlock making some great points about the bloomberg article:

Basically with younger people generally less, less people will buy houses. With mainlanders replacing western expats driving down average salaries, and all other factors pointing at HK and Shenzhen average salaries more equalizing in years to come, HK property will have no way of moving back to the old highs.
https://www.biglychee.com/2024/11/26...lation-shifts/

They are concerning numbers, an ageing population is not unique to Hong Kong but that is a rapid change.

[Fatpigkenny]

Hemlock making some great points about the bloomberg article:

Basically with younger people generally less, less people will buy houses. With mainlanders replacing western expats driving down average salaries, and all other factors pointing at HK and Shenzhen average salaries more equalizing in years to come, HK property will have no way of moving back to the old highs.
https://www.biglychee.com/2024/11/26...lation-shifts/

sounds logical. But I don’t know any expats that bought property, unless they married Hongkie

[shri]

Split this out. I feel the demographic stats are more important for people than culture issues. They are intertwined but still interesting when viewed separately from an economic and productivity perspective.

[Beanieskis]

sounds logical. But I don’t know any expats that bought property, unless they married Hongkie

There are quite a lot of long term expats who bought in the past I think, particularly in CWB. Not the majority for sure, but I know a fair few.

[shri]

He mentions a paper in his post. Not this one but it's worth a read. Trying to dig up the Nomura paper

https://ash.harvard.edu/wp-content/u...al.pdf?noembed

This might be the Nomura paper ..

http://www.theoverholtgroup.com/medi...st.pdf?noembed

[paddylast]

I didn't realise 'senior international corporate types' was a demographic. I didn't see that on any immigration forms I filled out.

[shri]

I didn't realise 'senior international corporate types' was a demographic. I didn't see that on any immigration forms I filled out.

Yours is not the same form that the corporate types get .. just trust me on this and your life will be simpler

[Morrison]

I didn't realise 'senior international corporate types' was a demographic. I didn't see that on any immigration forms I filled out.

The demographics that will stay no matter what is probably senior international privatier types.
Hell, HK, YES!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatier