Like Tree21Likes

China hard landing...

Closed Thread
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast
  1. #1

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,766

    China hard landing...

    Based on the HPRCI (Hullexile Pretty Random China Index) it seems to me after my recent visit that China is in a spot of economic bother.

    Indicators: The number of cranes I could see from the top of the building had reduced from 50 to 3; the traffic, while still bad, was better than before.

    Eight years ago students used to say "I want to help make China great", 2 years ago it was "I want to earn lots of money", now it is "I need a Masters to get a good job". Eight years ago about 50% wanted to start their own business, now it is about 5%.

    Colleagues were openly criticising their own government, one even saying they lied. I think this has a lot to do with the worsening economic situation and the fact that their property prices have dropped 20% they told me.

    All very unscientific but I did notice a change. Still most of the world would love to have China's economic problems I guess.


  2. #2

    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    6,745

    a more scientific approach would be to check energy consumption.
    I have read somewhere that analysts have done that and concluded
    that GDP growth rates probably do not match reality


  3. #3

    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Gold Coast Marina
    Posts
    17,934

    I wouldn't use energy consumption as a proxy. Energy efficiency is a big deal right now and China is actually at the front of this (unlike the USA which lags). Even in developed economies, the relationship between energy and GDP is neither flat nor fixed - weather in particular has a huge impact. I think Hull's observations are at least as valid!


  4. #4

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    HK
    Posts
    14,624
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    The number of cranes I could see from the top of the building had reduced from 50 to 3; the traffic, while still bad, was better than before.

    Eight years ago students used to say "I want to help make China great", 2 years ago it was "I want to earn lots of money", now it is "I need a Masters to get a good job". Eight years ago about 50% wanted to start their own business, now it is about 5%.

    Colleagues were openly criticising their own government, one even saying they lied.
    Sounds more and more like Europe/USA if you ask me, except that they are not yet at:"I want to work less and earn more"...a few more years and they will have finally mature into a global powerhouse such as the UK, France and the like. Then they would have made it.

  5. #5

    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    368

    If I have the money and the means I'd be shorting this:
    People’s Daily Site Raises $222 Million in Enlarged IPO - Bloomberg

    ClueMinus likes this.

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Hong Kong
    Posts
    6,076

    I blame the mainlanders.

    Stoob likes this.

  7. #7

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    132
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Based on the HPRCI (Hullexile Pretty Random China Index) it seems to me after my recent visit that China is in a spot of economic bother.

    Indicators: The number of cranes I could see from the top of the building had reduced from 50 to 3; the traffic, while still bad, was better than before.

    Eight years ago students used to say "I want to help make China great", 2 years ago it was "I want to earn lots of money", now it is "I need a Masters to get a good job". Eight years ago about 50% wanted to start their own business, now it is about 5%.

    Colleagues were openly criticising their own government, one even saying they lied. I think this has a lot to do with the worsening economic situation and the fact that their property prices have dropped 20% they told me.

    All very unscientific but I did notice a change. Still most of the world would love to have China's economic problems I guess.
    Could be hard landing, could also be growth plateauing to something sustainable for China. How can we tell the difference? Serious question.

    China GDP Growth Rate

  8. #8

    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Pampanga, Philippines
    Posts
    29,766

    Clueminus (my reply with quote is not working again): I think you can see GDP growth or the lack of it. Not accurately but you can get an idea if it is 8% or -2%. Go to Hull, UK and you can see it is seriously negative, previously you could see the rapid growth in China. Not now though so if they continue to come out with 8% growth figures I for one will be pretty sure they are making it up. I do think (but could easily be wrong) that it will be a hard landing.


  9. #9

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    HK
    Posts
    14,624
    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Clueminus (my reply with quote is not working again): I think you can see GDP growth or the lack of it. Not accurately but you can get an idea if it is 8% or -2%. Go to Hull, UK and you can see it is seriously negative, previously you could see the rapid growth in China. Not now though so if they continue to come out with 8% growth figures I for one will be pretty sure they are making it up. I do think (but could easily be wrong) that it will be a hard landing.
    Where were u in china?

    1st tier cities growth is slowing, but probably 2 nd tier city are still performing (at home and don't have the data so can't say for sure).

    We are approached a lot more by places like chendgu....while before it was only shanghai-beijing.

  10. #10

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    132
    Original Post Deleted
    Problem is this has been said for almost a decade now.

Closed Thread
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast