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China did it, 7% GDP growth!

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  1. #1

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    China did it, 7% GDP growth!

    Wow, China set GDP growth at 7% for this year, and for the second consecutive quarter they hit the target exactly. What an amazing accomplishment....unless it's not true?

    Look, I understand lying, we all do it...but message to the CCP, you would sound a little more believable if you didn't try to be so perfect. How about just reporting a 6.9% growth for next quarter? No country can continue to predict its exact growth quarter after quarter and no one expects anyone to.



    The Chinese economy: Whether to believe China's GDP figures | The Economist



    A dead giveaway that China's GDP numbers are fake | Business Insider


  2. #2

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    There have long been questions over the accuracy of economic stats coming out of China. But I don't think these figures are complete fiction. There are certain economic indications that are too hard to hide. Remember, China, unlike the Soviet Union, has an economy connected with the rest of the world. This is not an isolated economy cut off from the world (which would make guessing its numbers much harder). You cannot create outright lies if other indications don't support the GDP figures.

    They probably fudge the numbers, but the figures cannot be too outrageous or absurd such that it has no bearing to economic realities. Because China cannot hide that.

    Last edited by Cho-man; 17-07-2015 at 01:35 PM.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cho-man:
    There have long been questions over the accuracy of economic stats coming out of China. But I don't think these figures are complete fiction. There are certain economic indications that are too hard to hide. Remember, China, unlike the Soviet Union, has an economy connected with the rest of the world. This is not an isolated economy cut off from the world (which would make guessing its numbers much harder). You cannot create outright lies if other indications don't support the GDP figures.
    A few indicators do not support these figures. Things like commodity prices, electricity usage and export statistics in neighboring countries suggested China's economy was decelerating but surprise suprise they come in with 7...

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    Quote Originally Posted by rathunt:




    A few indicators do not support these figures. Things like commodity prices, electricity usage and export statistics in neighboring countries suggested China's economy was decelerating but surprise suprise they come in with 7...
    Yes, that's why gdp growth drop from 10% to 8 to now 7. In any case, you don't know the economy the way Premier Li does..

    Want to bet the Chinese economy ain't in a recession?

    Hint: Never bet against the CCP...they haven't lasted this long without reason...
    Last edited by Cho-man; 17-07-2015 at 05:39 PM.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cho-man:
    Yes, that's why gdp growth drop from 10% to 8 to now 7. In any case, you don't know the economy the way Premier Li does..

    Want to bet the Chinese economy ain't in a recession?

    Hint: Never bet against the CCP...they haven't lasted this long without reason...
    It is China GDP time again tomorrow... Only a moron would bet (or even suggest) the economy was in a recession as the difference between 7% growth and negative would be virtually impossible to fudge.

    By the same token, if you believe the number they spew out tomorrow, which will be around 6.9%-7% is accurate then I have some magic beans for sale...
    TheBrit, hullexile and Mat like this.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cho-man:
    Yes, that's why gdp growth drop from 10% to 8 to now 7. In any case, you don't know the economy the way Premier Li does..

    Want to bet the Chinese economy ain't in a recession?

    Hint: Never bet against the CCP...they haven't lasted this long without reason...
    Did anyone say they were in recession? The lowest estimate I have seen is 2% growth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rathunt:

    By the same token, if you believe the number they spew out tomorrow, which will be around 6.9%-7% is accurate then I have some magic beans for sale...
    Please don't put words in my mouth, I never made such claims, thank you very much.

    I am curious however how some are suddenly oh-so-suspicious of the official figures only now. Why not question it during the boom years? Or was that a mirage too? Then why are so many multinationals all so eager to invest in China? Why all these expats in HK?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Did anyone say they were in recession? The lowest estimate I have seen is 2% growth.
    So do you believe China is growing at 2% then?

    Sure sounds like some of you believe China is in a recession even if they don't say that out loud. Its not like some of you almost wish China will fall back to the backward and impoverished country it was 30 years ago.

    I mean, as politically disagreeable as China may be, it is good thing many Chinese citizens are now better much off and enjoying a more prosperous living standard compare to their hand-to-mouth existence during the Mao era.
    Last edited by Cho-man; 18-01-2016 at 04:55 PM.

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    What if China (as personified by so many) doesn't care whether people from outside China trust its figure or not?

    When you look at the picture objectively and the stuff 'the' media have said. Who is the lying culprit when so much analysis was made that China is going downhill for the past 7+ years?

    And then you have so many people who follows the same media still so righteous about the inaccuracies of a figure provided by a country with growth.

    If they say it's 7%, then lets assume it is 5%. So which side made the greater lie thus far?

    Last edited by Creative83; 18-01-2016 at 05:27 PM.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cho-man:
    There have long been questions over the accuracy of economic stats coming out of China. But I don't think these figures are complete fiction. There are certain economic indications that are too hard to hide. Remember, China, unlike the Soviet Union, has an economy connected with the rest of the world. This is not an isolated economy cut off from the world (which would make guessing its numbers much harder). You cannot create outright lies if other indications don't support the GDP figures.

    They probably fudge the numbers, but the figures cannot be too outrageous or absurd such that it has no bearing to economic realities. Because China cannot hide that.
    especially 4 you, this is how they detect tax fraud

    Benford's Law -- from Wolfram MathWorld
    Last edited by Morrison; 18-01-2016 at 05:24 PM.

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