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USDHKD peg under pressure

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  1. #21

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    This guy started coming in to tell the world what he is playing at, i guess trying to get everyone to follow and help him break the peg.
    But his assessment of the driving factor of hibor, i.e. the aggregate balance, is not really the full picture. HKMA has already drained like trillions of HKD out of the market using the exchange bill, so if HKD gets thin they might just hold back new issuances and we would have increasing aggregate balance again.

    Early April there was a sudden move of overnight hibor above 3%, causing HKD to strengthen to spike to 7.83 or 7.80.. can't remember the exact number.. We were trying to figure out what can cause that... Many bankers were speculating of a drive to trigger stop losses..

    Kind of suspect its this guy doing his bit to push the market down as he builds his position. Likely he is counting on a weakening break of the peg and so running a positive carry with borrowed HKD depositing USD. From what he kind of hinted.. and probably hoping hedggies around will try very hard to read his message and join forces with him...

    Let's see what else can happen..

    but that said Hibor has been creeping up lately. I think HKMA is also keen to see that happening, so property prices won't continue to move up.


  2. #22

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elefant&Castle
    I think it is obvious that his financial advice is influenced by politics.
    traineeinvestor likes this.

  4. #24

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    7x currency in circulation. 46% of M3.

    HK End-Apr Official Foreign Currency Reserve Assets at US$436.4B


    HK End-Apr Official Foreign Currency Reserve Assets at US$436.4B AASTOCKS Financial News - Latest News

    MandM! likes this.

  5. #25

    Join Date
    Jul 2004
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    3,057

    And generally dovish Norman suddenly changed tune to reassuring for the first time after Trump threats...

    the market doesn't need to worry about the Hong Kong dollar interest rate hike, which could arise from capital outflow from Hong Kong, adding that there are still trillions of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes that could be transformed into balances in the banking system for cushioning the negative impacts of capital outflow.
    No need to worry about HK dollar interest rate hike, Norman Chan says - The Standard

  6. #26

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    And just incase you were taking him seriously...

    https://dealbreaker.com/2019/05/bass-china-short-closed

    traineeinvestor likes this.

  7. #27

    Join Date
    Jan 2018
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    He seems to have dropped the short he had on the RMB - from last Tuesday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0aOPolgYOo&t=303s


  8. #28

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    Jan 2018
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    More Texas straight talk about HK - I know how much you guys appreciate it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=156Qea6rvjE


  9. #29

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    There is some amount of truth in what he says - about the political situation etc. Grossly simplified, but there is some amount of truth... how much I don't know.

    The statement about being the most levered economy in the world - true?

    And that is what is troubling - whose version of the truth will you bet your retirement on?


  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri

    And that is what is troubling - whose version of the truth will you bet your retirement on?
    What is truth in a post-truth world?

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